MGM posts NFL win totals; stark differences with Cantor

May 24, 2012 |
MGM posts NFL win totals; stark differences with Cantor
MGM is already moving Atlanta's season win odds.
MGM is already moving Atlanta's season win odds.
Let the shopping begin.

MGM Mirage on Thursday released its over-unders for NFL season win totals, a day after Cantor Gaming did, and the differences are striking.

The top of the NFC South was a good example. MGM Mirage opened the Falcons at 10 wins (under -120), ahead of the Saints at 9.5 (over -135), before shifting Atlanta's total to 9.5 (under -115).

Cantor has the Saints favored in the division, opening New Orleans at 10 (over -125) and Atlanta at 9 (under -135).

Jay Rood, vice president of Race & Sports for MGM Resorts International, said his numbers were not affected at all by Cantor’s release.

“We had ours ready to go, somebody sent me their sheet and we looked at ‘em, then left ours alone,” Rood told Covers.

Only nine of 32 teams received the same win total from the two bookmaking operations.

Rood termed the Saints’ turbulent offseason a big factor in their win total, which opened as high as 11 offshore.

“They’ve got a coach shift in the middle of the season, they have to adapt to a new defensive coordinator, and so on,” he said. “I just think there’s an opportunity for the Falcons to recapture that division. Although they didn’t do a whole lot to address their needs in the offseason, they’re still a pretty good team.”

MGM Mirage runs 12 books in Nevada, including at the Mirage, MGM Grand, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay and New York, New York. They’re taking $5,000 limit bets per team.

Cantor, which runs seven books in Las Vegas including at the Venetian and the Palms, opened the Packers and Patriots at 12 wins each, with juice on the over. MGM Mirage opened lower: Green Bay at 12 (even) and New England at 11.5.

“The trend is sharp money comes in under on the big totals, so we just shade that direction to see if we can minimize that trend,” Rood said.

While Rood was on the phone with Covers, his book took its first bet, a $5,000 play on Tampa Bay under 6.5. Rood immediately moved the Buccaneers to 6.5 (under -125). Later in the evening, the Bucs moved to 6.5 (under -140).

It was predictable based on what happened Wednesday. Cantor opened the Bucs lower, at 6 (under -120), and took four immediate max plays of $3,000 on the under.

Still, Rood defended his 6.5 open on the Bucs.

“I hear [QB Josh] Freeman has lost about 30 pounds, I like the draft they had, and with the running back they took (Boise State’s Doug Martin), they’re going to have a thunder-and-lightning backfield. Martin is elusive and can catch out of the backfield,” Rood said.
“Their run game is going to be good, they signed Vincent Jackson to stretch the field, so there’s a lot to like. Remember, two years ago they were a very solid 10-win team. This league has shown that, given the right circumstances, a few teams are able to break from what they did the year before.”

The win totals will generate “well into seven figures worth of action,” Rood said, or about half the handle of a typical NFL weekend. MGM Mirage made a 4 percent profit on win totals last year, he said.

Rood called the league “a non-stop 365-day marketing monster that people are always interested in.”

Other differences between MGM Mirage and Cantor Gaming’s opening numbers:

Cincinnati Bengals – MGM Mirage 8.5 (under -120); Cantor Gaming 7.5 (over -130)
Tennessee Titans – MGM Mirage 8 (under -120); Cantor Gaming 7 (over -130)
St. Louis Rams – MGM Mirage 6.5; Cantor Gaming 6 (under -120)
Denver Broncos – MGM Mirage 9 (over -135); Cantor Gaming 9.5 (under -120)

Rood said he and sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback even toyed with an 8.5 on the Broncos, because there’s not a bad team in their division.

“But I thought nine wins was pretty obtainable for them,” he said, “and 8.5 would almost be a straight over play.”

Of the Rams, who went 2-14 last season, Rood said he had no problem pinning a 6.5 on them.

“The coaching change [Jeff Fisher replacing Steve Spagnuolo] is going to be positive for them,” he said. “Last year their QB was dinged up a lot. He had a high ankle sprain for most of the season’s second half. So there’s a lot of room to bounce back.”

MGM Resorts' NFL season win totals:

Green Bay Packers

Over 12 wins (even)
Under 12 wins (-120)

New England Patriots

Over 11.5 wins (-110)
Under 11.5 wins (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles

Over 10.5 wins (-110)
Under 10.5 wins (-110)

Houston Texans

Over 10.5 wins (-110)
Under 10.5 wins (-110)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Over 10.5 wins (even)
Under 10.5 wins (-120)

Baltimore Ravens

Over 10 wins (-110)
Under 10 wins (-110)

Atlanta Falcons

Over 10 wins (even)
Under 10 wins (-120)

UPDATE: Atlanta moved to 9.5 (over -105/under-115) Thursday evening.

New Orleans Saints

Over 9.5 wins (-135)
Under 9.5 wins (+115)

San Francisco 49ers

Over 9.5 (-110)
Under 9.5 (-110)

New York Giants

Over 9.5 (-110)
Under 9.5 (-110)

Detroit Lions

Over 9.5 (-110)
Under 9.5 (-110)

San Diego Chargers

Over 9.5 (even)
Under 9.5 (-120)

Dallas Cowboys

Over 9 (-110)
Under 9 (-110)

Denver Broncos

Over 9 (-135)
Under 9 (+115)

Chicago Bears

Over 9 (even)
Under 9 (-120)

New York Jets

Over 8.5 (-145)
Under (+125)

Cincinnati Bengals

Over 8.5 (even)
Under 8.5 (-120)

Cincinnati was moved to 8.5 (over +115/under -135) Thursday evening.

Tennessee Titans

Over 8 (even)
Under 8 (-120)

Kansas City Chiefs

Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (even)

Oakland Raiders

Over 7.5 (-110)
Under 7.5 (-110)

Seattle Seahawks

Over 7.5 (-120)
Under 7.5 (even)

Miami Dolphins

Over 7 (-110)
Under 7 (-110)

Arizona Cardinals

Over 7 (-110)
Over 7 (-110)

Carolina Panthers

Over 7 (even)
Under 7 (-120)

Carolina moved to 7.5 (over even/under -120) Thursday evening.

Buffalo Bills

Over 7 (even)
Under 7 (-120)

Washington Redskins

Over 6.5 (-125)
Under 6.5 (+105)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over 6.5 (-110)
Under 6.5 (-110)

UPDATE: Tampa Bay moved to 6.5 (over +120/under -135)

St. Louis Rams

Over 6.5 (-110)
Under 6.5 (-110)

Minnesota Vikings

Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-110)

Cleveland Browns

Over 6 (even)
Over 6 (-120)

Indianapolis Colts

Over 5 (even)
Under 5 (-120)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Over 5 (even)
Under 5 (-120)

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View