This guy is not wearing deodorant.

That’s the first thing I thought to myself as this dude I’d never met before leaned in too close and continued to read over my shoulder.

Who let this socially inept dufus into this party anyway?

It was New Year’s and I was at a friend of a friend’s for drinks. I thought I’d snuck away from the crowd to check all the NFL playoff possibilities but a strangler followed me to the computer and was trying to make small talk.

“The Pats are wicked,” the man with the pit stains said. “There’s no way they can lose this season.”

“Oh, yeah,” I said, keeping my eyes on the screen rather than his soaked underarms. “Why’s that?”

“They’ve been there before,” he told me confidently. “They’ve got the best coach and the best quarterback in the league. Nobody wants a piece of them in the playoffs.”

Forget the fact that this guy has never seen an NFL game not involving the Patriots… probably. What he just fed me was cliché crap.

Playoff time means there are all sorts of people - like this bozo with the B.O. issue – betting NFL games for the first time this season. And all these guys love pretending like they know what they’re talking about.

Not that I do either. I’m now 3-6 with my underdog picks over the last three weeks.  

The point I’m trying to make is that there is a flood of newbie action this weekend and you can’t be swayed by line movement. Stick to your guns and stay the course like NBC should have done with Conan O'Brien.

I think picking winners in the NFL playoffs is a lot like a multiple choice question: Your first lean is normally the right answer.

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at New England Patriots

Obviously I’m fading the New Year’s Eve guy’s pick.

These Pats don’t have an elite defense and their offense folds like a beach towel in the fourth quarter. Throw in no Wes Welker and all of a sudden you’ve got a team with two many weaknesses and not enough strengths.

Baltimore played well enough to win at Foxoborough earlier this season and the club is primed to bounce the once-mighty Patriots.

Pick: Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Dallas Cowboys   

Three weeks ago the Eagles looked like one of the best teams in the league and the Cowboys were playing like one of the most inconsistent.

Now even regular Dallas doubters are predicting the Boys will beat Philly for a third time this season. Apparently game-breaker DeSean Jackson can’t get open with cornerback Mike Jenkins defending him.

Really?

I think Andy Reid will figure out a way to get Jackson involved, the Eagles will roll and Cowboys Jerry Jones will sob like Glenn Beck during a performance of God Bless America.

Pick: Eagles

Last week: 1-2

Season record: 26-21-1