USA Today Sports

NFL line watch: Side with Seattle before the public does

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans
(+3)

If you're a fan of Seattle, consider jumping on this line right now.

If you listen to all of the talking heads out there, you may as well just hand the Super Bowl title to the Seahawks. It’s hard to argue with them, though. The team has pretty much looked unstoppable during its 3-0 to start the season.

The Texans are reeling, looking for answers on both sides of the ball after their 30-9 letdown versus Baltimore Sunday. The fact that the Ravens man-handled the Houston defense the way it did without RB Ray Rice in the lineup is a bit of a shocker. Now the Texans have to face "Beast Mode" – Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch - and also dynamic QB Russell Wilson.

A suddenly-struggling home side versus a surging Seahawks team will not be overlooked by the general betting public. Expect this line to climb higher as everyone jumps on the league's hottest team.

Spread to wait on

New York Giants (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs

This line opened at 4.5 and is already starting to drop. There are still plenty of 4s on the board, but there are a few 3.5s popping up.

The Giants are 0-3 and are coming off a brutal 38-0 beatdown loss in Carolina. The Chiefs are 3-0 and are coming off a fantastic 26-16 win on the road in Philadelphia. If you believe that New York is due to get off the schneid this week (or at least keep it close), you may want to jump on this line right away.

The initial line movement would say that neither the public nor the sharps think that New York is as bad as it’s shown through the first three games and that the Chiefs are not as good as their start would indicate.

Kansas City will face a desperate and proud Giants team this week which is essentially playing for its season. While it would take an unbelievable turn in fortunes to even make the playoffs after three straight losses, a fourth would be the nail in the coffin.

I'm as surprised as most at what Andy Reid has done in such a short time with the Chiefs, but would caution reading too much into their start. Kansas City has beaten the Jaguars, the Cowboys and the Eagles - three teams which have combined for three total wins between them as we head into Week 4.

Total to watch

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (43)

If you're a fan of offense, you may want to consider getting down on this line before it creeps any higher. The total in this game opened at 42.5 and has since gone to 43 across the board.

The Jaguars are 0-3 - most recently coming off a 45-17 loss in Seattle. While Jacksonville wasn't able to cover with the 20 points they were afforded, the teams would smash the O/U, which was set at 39.

There were some silver linings for Jacksonville last week, like the return of RB Maurice-Jones Drew, who carried the ball 19 times for 43 yards and a major score. Despite the offensive starters sitting for Seattle for most of the second half, the Jaguars in the end would seemingly have fared a lot better than San Francisco did in its lackluster 29-3 setback in the Pacific Northwest the week before.

Speaking of San Francisco, Indianapolis steamrolled the offensively-challenged 49ers, 27-7, last week. Newly acquired RB Trent Richardson had a TD run on his first carry from scrimmage. After the way the Texans played in Baltimore, the Colts believe they have a legitimate shot at winning the AFC South and certainly won't be holding anything back this week with three tough games on the horizon (vs. Seattle, at San Diego, vs. Denver).

Two teams which did a lot better than most were expecting last week means that this total will continue to climb.

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Posted by ykmichael
12 months ago

May be the last opportunity to take Houston +4 this year. They are a good team.
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Posted by In_Play_Runs
12 months ago

It actually looks like the line is moving the other way, I see a couple -2.5 out there.
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Posted by fullkrause
12 months ago

So what do you guys think about the Bears?? Same scenario basically, but Detroit is no Houston!!
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Posted by bigbooze
12 months ago

detroit front 4 is sick jay will be on his ass all game
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Posted by hoosline
12 months ago

I agree with @bigbooze. I think this will be Cutlers worst game so far this year. Chicago is over rated at 3-0, but have won 9 of the last 10 meetings against Detroit. That's important being a division game. Detroit really struggles on 3rd downs too. I think the passing game will determine who wins this game so I'm going with Detroit and Megatron, but low scoring game. 20-17 Detroit.
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Posted by THEMUGG
12 months ago

Things change......people need to pay attention to reality rather than some past reputation. Seattle is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their L5 roadies, including the playoffs. Remember, Houston should be 0-3.....
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Posted by madulamaximus
12 months ago

@play runs....@hoosline...thanks for the insight because I did not actually see the game...just the scoring and results. Any good capper will search for the most impactful matchup factors. With that said...Seattle is indeed home juggernauts....and from my opinion 14 points less productive on the road. And from a quick calculation perspective....a team with back to back blowouts versus a playoff contender AT HOME coming off a loss??? AND!!! a home DOG!!??...That's a dog moneyline play with a high probability of winning. I tend to come up big in those scenarios. And as Play Runs indicated...Houston is better than they have shown. My pick will be HOUSTON....MONEYLINE!!!....hope you guys weight in on a few other pics. Great to hear from knowledgeable mature cappers in the forum. Win or lose....thanks fellow cappers.
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Posted by hoosline
12 months ago

Good Luck..I hope you are wrong so that my Hawks go 4-0. I'm laying off this game for obvious reasons, but I'm hammering the under...It's still early in the week and I may change my mind, but I like Colts -9, NYG +4.5(KC D is slowly getting hurt) Minn +1(This is more of a bet against Pitt and Todd Haley than for Minn), Jets +4 and Dallas -1.5.
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Posted by pickinperfecto
12 months ago

Looks solid..those picks there. The Colts line is at 7.5 with a +300 dog value.??? That raises suspicion. Matchup wise Colts by 17+...A team contending that executes at a far better clip than a team lucky to get 3 field goals.? does spell blowout.
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Posted by hoosline
12 months ago

Seahawks SHOULD have lost? Could have lost makes more sense. Sea defense caused a TO, like they always do. BUT I do agree with you that this is a trap game, just not for your reasoning. We don't play as good on the road, but that goes for every team. and going back to your "should"statement.. Hawks Should have won the Mia and Det games last year. Seattle will have a tough time moving the ball so you will see a lot more roll outs and read options from Wilson. Houston D will give Seattle a lot of trouble. Hawks O-line didn't even look good against Jax. I hope the Hawks win, but we won't win them all and I can see us losing this one. I think the Under is a lock. +3(or 4, but I don't see it going to 4) and Under 43. Good Luck!
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Posted by In_Play_Runs
12 months ago

Seattle is definition trap line this week. Public overreaction to their 2 blowout wins at home. HOU is a better team than they have shown so far this year. Remember, the Hawks should have lost to the Panthers week 1. They are a different team on the road. Last year in the regular season SEA lost to ARI, STL, SF, DET, and MIA away from home. Ill wait for this line to move to +4 then jump on it.
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Top Response

Posted by madulamaximus
12 months ago

" @play runs....@hoosline...thanks for the insight because I did not actually see the game...just the scoring and results. Any good capper will search for the most impactful matchup factors. With that said...Seattle is indeed home juggernauts....and f..."