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1* Chicago (1:00 ET): I realize that Matt Barkley is againthe starter here for the Bears, but I do not understand this line move at all. San Francisco as a road favorite? No thanks. I have the 49ers rated 31st in the league in my own power rankings (ahead of only Cleveland). While Chicago is 30th, that's one spot higher and they should be favored.
With Barkley under center, the Bears nearly pulled off an improbable come from behind effort LW here at home vs. Tennessee. They fell behind early in the fourth quarter, 27-7, but two late TD's actually gave them a back door cover and they had a chance to steal the outright win. The final drive stalled inside the Titans' 10 yd line, making it four losses by six pts or less in the last seven weeks, Barkley actually threw for 300+ yards and Chicago outgained Tennessee 411-375. I like their offense's chances this week, going against a Niners' defense that has been putrid, giving up 36.4 PPG on the road.
The Bears' defense is only giving up 19.4 PPG at home, believe it or not. The 49ers, like the Bears, rallied late to make a game of it last week. It ended up being a 31-24 loss for SF at Miami as they remain winless on the road. Chicago almost has a homefield "disadvantage" in that they're 7-22 ATS L29 home games, but that is due to turnaround isn't it? Also, these two teams are a combined 0-6 SU and ATS the L2 seasons when favored, so the line move works AGAINST the Niners. Take the points. 1* Chicago