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Three starters with 'over' value on the hill Saturday

Saturday's MLB schedule features three starters on the board that could be worth a look for over wagers. Why? Because their teams provide them with some of the best run support in the bigs.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox, (6-0, 1.60 ERA)

Buchholz is coming off the least impressive outing of his otherwise unblemished 2013 season. The Texan lasted six innings giving up four earned runs and seven hits versus the Minnesota Twins. His last two starts have gone over the number and the Sox supply the righty with an outstanding six runs of support per game.

Boston hosts the Toronto Blue Jays Saturday. The Red Sox defeated the Jays 10-1 with Buchholz on the mound on May 1.

Jonathon Niese, New York Mets (2-3, 4.66 ERA)

The Mets lefty has been a great over wager this season. He goes into Saturday's start with a 6-1 over/under record. Any $100 bettor would be up $539.02 if they had taken the over on each of Niese's starts this season. His 4.66 ERA, plus the fact that the Mets give him 6.29 runs per start, makes him a solid play on the over.

Niese and the Mets are home to face the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. He was excellent in his lone start versus the Bucs in 2012, notching the victory with one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of work.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers, (5-1, 2.56 ERA)

Darvish gets the second-most run support in the American League with 6.71 runs per game. Two of his previous three starts have gone over the number and he is coming off a deep, 127-pitch effort versus the Red Sox on May 5.

The Rangers continue their series versus the Houston Astros Saturday. Darvish opened the season with a 7-0 victory versus Houston on April 2. He pitched 8 2/3 innings of one-hit ball.

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Posted by LOS-CARACAS-PLAYA
11 months ago

buenas tarde venezuela estado vargas me llamo mucho la atencion con la estadistica del viento cuando explican aquien favorecen cuando el viento sopla asia un lado o a otro lado donde puedo conseguir esa informacion completa y felicitarlo por los buenos comentarios y estadistica que ustedes le proporcionan a los lectores de esta pagina ya que son una guia para poder sacar nuestro propio pronostico.dejame decirle que soy lector numero 1 de esta pagina hay muy buenas informaciones de todos los deportes gracias por todo que pasen buenas tarde
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Posted by adamveenhuis74
11 months ago

Nice advice and write ups gents....thanks!
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Posted by Lesh
11 months ago

As a side note: I see TEX/HOU staying UNDER the total, as well.
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Posted by KeyElement
11 months ago

The single biggest reason the game is 2-0 Blue Jays after 6 innings is Buehrle, it has absolutely NOTHING to do with the run support the Red Sox would like to give Bucholz, but are unable. My original statement remains true. Run support is not given to individual pitchers, it is taken from others.
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Posted by leshavelli
11 months ago

I agree w/ KeyElement, for the most part. I can speak from experience that, there is a subconscious mindset that causes some hitters/offenses to 'let up' once a fairly comfortable lead has been established. This phenomenon, in conjunction with an SP that is dealing a gem, creates challenges for hitting an OVER. For example, say the Red Sox jump out to a 5-0 lead and carry it through the first 5 innings. At the same time, Buchholz is keeping his pitch count low and getting outs. The owness is seemingly on the Red Sox to score the majority of the 5 or 6 additional runs needed in order to cover today's OVER of 9.5/10. While it's true that the Red Sox crossed the plate 10 times to Toronto's 1 in the last meeting w/ Buchholz on the mound. The chances of the Red Sox scoring 10 runs again pale in comparison to the Blue Jays only scoring 1 or 2 runs. After all, Buchholz has only given up 1 ER in his L3 starts. Further, other than the 1st game vs. the Blue Jays, the Red Sox haven't scored more than 7 runs this season when Buchholz was the SP. BUT, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that the Red Sox have score 10+ runs only twice so far this season. BOTH of those offensive onslaughts came at the expense of the Blue Jays (13-1 & 10-1). So, I suppose that provides some support for taking the OVER in today's game. :-D
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Posted by KeyElement
11 months ago

Talking about run support for pitchers is close to irrelevant. Offenses do not decide to hit based on who their chucker is on that given day. They hit the guys they can hit, regardless of who their own pitcher is. On any given day Bucholz and/or Darvish is shutout capable, so you are asking their hitters to provide an over by themselves. That is entirely dependent on who they are facing and his own bullpen, not on their own pitcher.
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Top Response

Posted by leshavelli
11 months ago

"I agree w/ KeyElement, for the most part. I can speak from experience that, there is a subconscious mindset that causes some hitters/offenses to 'let up' once a fairly comfortable lead has been established. This phenomenon, in conjunction with an S..."