NFL Prop Shop: Divisional Round's best prop plays
We enjoyed a 2-1-1 Wild Card Weekend at the NFL Prop Shop, successfully building on a 3-1 Week 17 card.
Now our focus shifts to the Divisional Round, where three of the four matchups are rematches from the regular season. Here are four prop picks to consider.
Most rushing yards
Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos)
This one essentially boils down to having more faith in the Broncos defense than the Ravens. When playing from behind on the road, we've seen the Ravens abandon the running game time and time again under the guidance of head coach John Harbaugh. Who's to say that doesn't happen again Saturday?
Knowshon Moreno quietly carried the ball at least 20 times in five of the Broncos’ last six games. He was limited to only 15 carries in Week 17 against the Chiefs, only due to the lopsided nature of that game. He'll find plenty of room to run against an aging Ravens front seven and will be given a heavy workload with Willis McGahee still sidelined.
Arian Foster (Houston Texans) vs. Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots)
It's no secret that the Texans will need a big game from Arian Foster if they're to pull off a shocker in Foxboro Sunday. I'm not convinced that he'll be able to rekindle past playoff magic against an underrated Patriots run defense that allows just 3.9 yards per rush.
Stevan Ridley doesn't get a lot of fanfare but the fact is he ran for nearly 1,300 yards during the regular season. He gained 72 yards on only 18 carries against the Texans in December and should the Pats build a lead, he'll likely get at least 20 touches.
Most pass receptions
Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers) vs. Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)
We're getting tremendous value with Vernon Davis in this matchup, largely due to the fact that he was held to just one reception in each of the 49ers’ final four regular season games. Let's not forget that Jermichael Finley also saw an inconsistent workload during the regular season and comes into this one dealing with a hamstring injury.
Davis really stepped up in the postseason last year and while I certainly don't expect him to reach those heights again, I do believe he's worth a shot matched up against another hit-or-miss tight end.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Russell Wilson may be the more mobile quarterback but Matt Ryan was only sacked 10 times over the Falcons’ last eight games and I expect the Falcons offensive line to hold its own once again Sunday. The Seahawks will be without one of their best pass rushers in Chris Clemons too.
Atlanta will have all hands on deck. It may surprise you to find out that Wilson has been sacked a whopping 11 times in the Seahawks’ last two games. Inside a loud Georgia Dome, the Falcons defensive front could have a field day.