Oregon State at Stanford: What bettors need to know

Oregon State at Stanford (-4, 44.5)

Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan will make his first start at quarterback when No. 15 Stanford hosts No. 12 Oregon State on Saturday in a critical Pac-12 North showdown. The teams are tied for second with 5-1 records, and both play first-place Oregon in the next two weeks. With Stanford and Oregon State ranked in the nation’s top 20 in scoring defense, the game figures to be a low-scoring contest. Stanford is hoping a change in quarterback improves its passing offense, which ranks ninth in the Pac-12. At Oregon State, quarterback Cody Vaz is set to make his second straight start in place of Sean Mannion, who lost the job after throwing four interceptions two weeks ago in a loss to Washington. The Beavers are 3-1 on the road this season, while Stanford has won seven straight home games and 18 of its last 19.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE:
Stanford -4, O/U 44.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the NNW at 8 mph.

ABOUT OREGON STATE (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12): The Beavers are 7-1 for the first time since 2000, and are second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense behind Stanford. Senior cornerback Jordan Poyer, who leads the Beavers with five interceptions, is expected to play after missing last Saturday’s 36-26 victory over Arizona State with a knee injury. Terron Ward rushed for a career-high 146 yards last week, but rushing yards figure to be at a premium with Stanford ranked No. 1 and Oregon State No. 5 in the nation in run defense. Leading rusher Storm Woods (knee) is expected to return Saturday after sitting out last week.

ABOUT STANFORD (7-2, 5-1): The Cardinal are allowing only 16.6 points per game, and their defense has held the last three opponents to a combined minus-36 rushing yards. Stanford's pass defense ranks 10th in the conference, but safety Ed Reynolds recorded his third interception return for a touchdown during last week’s 48-0 victory over Colorado. Stepfan Taylor ranks fourth in the Pac-12 in rushing and is 53 yards away from reaching 1,000 yards for the third season in his career. Hogan gets the start at quarterback over Josh Nunes after passing for 184 yards and two touchdowns and running seven times for 48 yards against the Buffaloes.

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-0 in Stanford’s last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Stanford has won the last two games against Oregon State and three of the previous four, including last season’s 38-13 victory in Corvallis.

2. Oregon State is 51-3 since the start of the 2004 season when leading after three quarters.

3. Stanford leads the conference in turnover margin at plus-11.

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