Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
I'm taking a break for the holidays. Merry Christmas!
|
sdiinc | 67 |
|
|
I'm taking a break for the holidays. Have a Merry Christmas!
|
sdiinc | 56 |
|
|
DEC UPDATES
We're 27-25 thus far in December. That brings our total YTD to 58-56. |
sdiinc | 67 |
|
|
Week 16 results: 7-3
We're 16-7 for the last three weeks. It looks like the changes we made to the formula a few weeks ago where we weighted the relevance of the most recent games may have improved the accuracy. See you next week! |
sdiinc | 160 |
|
|
DEC 21:
BOS -13 DAL -6.5 CLE -13.5 |
sdiinc | 67 |
|
|
DEC 21:
PHI @ 115 |
sdiinc | 56 |
|
|
Week 16:
IND -5.5 BAL +5 PIT -1 MIA -3.5 WAS +4.5 MIN -3.5 NO -7 CAR +3.5 BUF +6 SD +3.5 |
sdiinc | 160 |
|
|
20 Dec:
BAL -5 |
sdiinc | 160 |
|
|
Sorry, guys, just realized we have Saturday night football starting tonight, so I'll have the week's posts up shortly.
|
sdiinc | 160 |
|
|
DEC 20:
IND +10.5 MIA +4.5 HOU -6 TOR +9.5 DEN +5 |
sdiinc | 67 |
|
|
DEC 20:
BUF @ 153 |
sdiinc | 56 |
|
|
Sorry for the double post.
DEC 19: IND -2.5 DAL -3.5 MIL +4 CHAR +4 |
sdiinc | 67 |
|
|
DEC 18:
ORL -2 POR -4 |
sdiinc | 67 |
|
|
DEC 19:
OTT @ 135 |
sdiinc | 56 |
|
|
DEC 18:
SJ @ 122 |
sdiinc | 56 |
|
|
DEC 17:
WAS +10 CLE -10 NJ +2.5 DAL -2 |
sdiinc | 67 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by Sumtingwong: sdiinc, I have read all your threads; that is how I emailed you and determined that you trade financial instruments for a living--please look at the second email I sent you. Yes, the stop is arbitrary for a group or a system, but not for an individual based on their bankroll and risk profile. I ran the numbers and everything is very straightforward. The only thing that you need to worry about, stats-wise, is that your sample is greater than 30 when compiling your data for a selection--this comes from the Central Limit Theorem. The Central Limit Theorem can also be used for a selection based on the last 30 plays: if the 50/50 plays are several standard deviations from the norm, a play in the opposite direction may be wise. Also, as is almost always the case, more data = better results. I understand what you're saying. I would consider an individual's unit risk management strategy as a different issue than the question of progression. If you consider them as a whole, however, I would agree that it is no longer an arbitrary question. I find that most gamblers bet far too much per event, and I personally have tried to move towards 1% per event. You're right about CLT, I tried to address this more simply using binomial distribution. If I'm using thousands of events but applying that to only, say 150 or so in a season, there can be a substantial deviation. The only way I know how to counter this is by increasing the number of total bets while maintaining a comparable confidence per event. |
sdiinc | 56 |
|
|
DEC 17:
EDM @ 145 |
sdiinc | 56 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by bluejays99: Milkman instead of evaluating how other systems perform. Why don't you try to evaluate the value added that you bring to this forum. I can help you out with that one. It's zero. This guy 'milkman' still can't get his math right. Whether it's W-L or net units, he's always wrong somewhere. Anyway, I've noticed he doesn't post when there are a few back to back wins, but waits for back to back losses and then jumps in. Scan his posts on other threads-never anything constructive! What are the probabilities it's a pseudonym for another user? I'd say about 78.5% |
sdiinc | 56 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by Sumtingwong: A stop should not be arbitrary and risk must be managed and predefined for each bettor. For instance, if you are up 10% betting the NHL, a chase could encompass all your winnings for the year until the bankroll is even. At this point, the chase stops. If the chase happens to run to 10 bets based on the 10% winnings, standard deviation tells us that this is a slim possibility and there should be a win in there somewhere. I am curious as to your methodology for trading: what stops were placed and why? Are they any more arbitrary than here? Did you chase bad trades? I am sweeping away the cobwebs on the stats and running some numbers. Will post when through. I think there is a confidence level that may come into play as well. All said, if your system is working, keep rolling. The 'stop' you have described is, in fact, arbitrary. It is based only on the objective you hope to accomplish, viz., winning. It is not based on a statistical probability that you expect based on a formula. Of course, I do agree about the slim possibilities of a 10 game losing streak, but you can easily calculate the probabilities based on say, 50% per event: .09%. As to your question, I don't think you've read the full thread. There are no 'stops' here, because we are not using a progressive system. In the MLB, we used no stops, because as I've indicated here, they're purely arbitrary and have no mathematical basis for placement. As I asked previous questioners, how do you choose whether it's 4, 5, 10 or 20? The immediately succeeding event would have a far higher probability than it's predecessor, so I don't see how you choose. Case in point is the example you've used, i.e., 10 game chase, where the probability of a 9 game losing streak is 0.195% and the 10 game losing streak is 0.098% Over the course of the MLB season our longest losing streak was 7. We had several of 4. 2 and 3 game streaks were common. |
sdiinc | 56 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.