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I haven't handicapped NW but I have connections with cal football.
Players have completely bought in to the new coaching staff and team morale right now is very high. Tedford played favorites and privately there was grumbling that talent and hard work were not being rewarded. Dykes over the summer declared an open competition for EVERY starting spot on the team. Players hit the weight room like never before and summer practices had a new intensity that cal football had not seen. I respect Fitzgerald so I will not outright recommend a play on cal. But do not sleep on this team. |
Covers | 8 |
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Courtesy of Pinnacle:
Biggest overachievers: Bills 7.5 Over -223 Texans 10 Over -210 Seahawks 7 Over -257 Broncos 8.5 Over -184 Biggest underachievers (much longer list, because people like to bet overs): Cardinals 7 Under -219 Ravens 10 Under -242 Bengals 8.5 Under -193 Browns 5.5 Under -181 Lions 9.5 Under -185 Packers 12 Under -253 (Yikes!) Dolphins 7 Under -347 (YIKES!) Saints 10 Under -191 Jets 8.5 Under -208 Chargers 9 Under -205 I've been tracking these lines for awhile, and some of these teams have had major moves fairly recently. For example- -Miami plummeted from -180 or so (where I got them in Vegas last month) after Tannehill was named starting QB. Vegas clearly thinks he is the second coming of Cade McNown. -Seahawks went up from -150 after Russell Wilson was named starting QB. I think Vegas has faith in him... and their 4-0 preseason. -Packers were at -150 when I was in Vegas, and I don't know of any news to cause this? A 12 Under -250 is more like a 10.5, which would make the Packers a good but not a dominating team this year. Vegas is expecting some serious regression. -The Ravens, Browns, and Bengals are on this list. Which makes my 10.5 under Pit bet made back in June not seem so good now... (Pit closed at 10 under -104 btw). Vegas seems to have serious concern about the AFC North, and it may be wise to fade these guys in nondivision games... SO, taking this info into week 1: There are three interesting matchups between Vegas favorites and Vegas Dogs. I'll go through each one: Dolphins at Texans (-11.5 and getting higher...) 75% of the bets are on the Texans. The line opened at -6 in April and just keeps getting pushed higher and higher. Sometimes the bookies don't mind taking disproportionate money on one side (as reflected by no or even reverse line movement) but in this case Vegas clearly wants to get some money on the Dolphins to limit their exposure. The LVH already has this at -13 and we might see the line at -14 (or more) by the weekend. What happens if you take an average (at best) college QB and throw him into a game with few/no skill players (especially at WR) against a ravenous defense? We're about to find out... I also like the under (42.5) on this (hard to go over if one team has trouble scoring) but the market movement on this is less clear. If I were in Vegas I would put a small wager on a parlay with the Texans and the Under. Seahawks (-2.5) at Cardinals This line moved from Cardinals -2.5 in the Spring so there's been a pretty big shift. That said, when the line moved to Seahawks -3 a few days ago it didn't stay there so the Cardinals are getting some money as a value play as a home underdog. Currently 2/3 of the bets are on the Seahawks, although the money is more even as it gets to Seahawks -3. Let's see if any late sharp money drives the line further? It takes a lot to move a line to -3 and beyond. I have the Seahawks now as a medium-size pick. Bills (+2.5) at Jets The bets are 60/40 on the Bills - a slight advantage - but that hasn't stopped the line from moving from +5 Bills and through the key +3 number. The O/U of 38.5 is the lowest of any game in week 1 so the bookies are expecting the revamped Buffalo D to stymie what has so been an inept NYJ offense. My only hesitation on going big on Buffalo right now is that Pinnacle is shading the line so that the Bills at +2.5 get some action (juice +102). I should add that when the line was +3 and 3.5 the line was heavily juiced against the Bills but any time Pinnacle wants you to bet on one side I proceed cautiously... Right now I have the Bills as a small play. Good luck with everyone's picks for week 1! |
orangeandblue | 1 |
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Honestly I had no idea which way to go on tonights game... Just went with DAL because I wanted to make a pick, but my 100 bet reflects no confidence. I went with DAL in the end because the public was on the NYG and when in doubt I like to side with the book.
Real fun begins this Sunday... definitely have strong opinions on some of the games. GL everyone! |
orangeandblue | 1 |
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