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Just wondering if anyone computes their own RPI numbers using Excel. Sure would love some help on how you do it.
Thanks |
kevnbs | 2 |
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Some numbers for April.
Home teams are 201-194 for a 50.9 winning percentage Home Dogs are 54-51 for a profit of over $1200 (lines based on Bet Jamaica early lines) Road Dogs are 143-147 for a profit of over $3500. There have been 195 overs to 184 unders and 16 pushes. Blind betting Dogs in April once again profitable. |
kevnbs | 3 |
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Interesting. With KC in a 6 game slide wouldn't this qualify as a no play under your number 2 rule?
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bettor2win | 1591 |
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I would say 2 years living expenses to go pro.
Put one year in the bank and live on it for the first year. Take the second year expenses and try to double it. If it works you have another year of gambling. The key is discipline, living within your budget, sound money management and did I mention discipline. I suggest you get a night job. Handicap during the day. Work nights so your not attempted to chase your bets or sweat the games you have money on. Personally I won't watch a game I have money on, too much stress yelling at the TV. Good Luck |
dogunder | 13 |
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Just a post week 4 update.
Totals 2-1 Blowouts 7-5 Haven't had a chance to get my chase numbers together yet. |
kevnbs | 19 |
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Aggressive Labby is where you don't add a new number to the end, you add the loss into the last number on the line, correct?
Big |
therizz | 738 |
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Take this for what it is worth. These are 3 approaches I use that take less than 10 minutes a week. Included are the results for the last 5 seasons. The numbers aren't exciting but they have shown a profit each of the last 5 seasons, albeit small, but still a profit. These are for the less serious bettor who wants action but doesn't want ot do the work. Then again, even this might be to much work for some.
Betting Totals Rule 1. Bet over any total of 37 or less, bet under any total of 51 or higher. Rule 2. Don't start until week 4. 2005 34-22 2006 29-24 2007 28-19 2008 17-14 2009 15-11 Blowouts Rule 1. If any team lost 14 points or more ATS (against the spread), bet them the following week. If two teams are facing each other that both got blown out, pass. Example. If STL was +10 and they lost 38-10 they would be a play as the difference ATS is 18. If they lost 38-17 it would be no play as the ATS difference is only 11. 2005 28-26 2006 34-21 2007 39-26 2008 36-24 2009 28-26 The Chase Rule 1. Chase any team for 3 games ATS if they have lost there last 2 both straight up and ATS. 2005 26-21 2006 26-0 2007 33-28 2008 25-0 2009 30-7 You'll notice all the total losses are divided by 7. That's because a failed chase is 7 units. That's it. Before anyone accuses me of stealing these, they are 100% right, I stole all of them. I will say though that by combining all 3 you have minimal work to do and would've made a profit each season. That said, criticize at will. Just so you know I posted this as kind of a payment back to this forum. I've used the things I've learned here to create some truly profitable approaches to sports betting and have met people that I now follow that make me money each and every year. Before anyone else can say it though, I suck and my approaches suck. Thx Big |
kevnbs | 19 |
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Great Work Leprechaun.
In summary in order to stay even or slightly ahead of the game when betting into an average -110 line you need to hit about 34%. If you were to play a single game a day for a year your record would be 123 and 242 (33.7%). If on the last day of betting you managed to clear your lines you would be even (4 numbers + 242 losees equal 246 and 123 x 2 = 246), however if you ended up 122 and 243 (33.4%) you would be down (leaving 3 numbers on your line). So with 365 bets you need to hit 33.7% to stay even for one year of betting at one bet a day. I'm exhausted. Big Happy |
BarcsHasBite | 12 |
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Thanks for straightening that out. In the middle of a long vacation and I start drinking way to early every day. It's amazing how logic is affected by alcohol.
Hate to think of losing 100 in a row though. |
BarcsHasBite | 12 |
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Good to see PSIC back on here.
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BarcsHasBite | 12 |
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Your right, it is higher than 33.3%. If you started with the 10-10-10-10 line and lost 100 in a row at -110 you would have 100 22's. Now if you won 50 in a row you would clear the 4 10's and 96 of the 22's, laving 4 22's or 48 in the hole. if you won 1 more, that would be 51 wins, + another 44 and only 4 in the hole. 4 in the hole is basically even so 51/151 =33.77%. So I will concede that 34% will keep you even.
To me it doesn't matter if your betting at -110 or minus -200. As long as you add the total loss to the end of the line and have a never ending bankroll the percentages hold up. Good discussion though. Big Happy |
BarcsHasBite | 12 |
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I'm pretty sure his NFL system is this.
Bet any team that has lost it's last 3 games straight up and against the spread. Chase for 3 games, betting with the points if they are a dog and straight up if they are favored. Does this sound right to everyone or does someone have more up to date information? Thanks Big Happy |
kevnbs | 9 |
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Since you roll your losses into the next line on the labourchere system the 33.3% winning percentage would still be the break even point.
Example, first line is 10-10-10-10 you lose your first bet of $22 ($22 to win $20). Your new line is now 10-10-10-10-22 making your next bet $32. Big Happy |
BarcsHasBite | 12 |
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Started playing this on Dec 9th as this was the firs time a team with 10 road games was playing a team with 10 home games.
2-0 so far Had to skip the Dec 11th Min-LAL game as the juice was over 1500. Four plays today Det Dal Den Sac |
MontanaMax | 68 |
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Going to try this but am going to wait until a team has 10 road games or 10 home games (as appropriate) to start. None of todays games would qualify (for me) as no matchups feature both teams having the minimum games.
Looking forward to this though. |
MontanaMax | 68 |
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Tried to look back in the forum for these. Couldn't find out how they finished the season.
If I recall correctly if a team was playing on the road in it's 3rd game in 4 days or it's 4th game in 5 days you played the over if it was 5.5 and you played the against the road team. Am I recalling this correctly and if so does anyone have results from last season. Thanks |
kevnbs | 2 |
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Quote Originally Posted by stickbit: bump...can anyone confirm that detroit was in fact a loss last year...or did a filter make it a 'no play'. thanks. By my records Detroit lost their first 3 as well as failed to cover. After their week 4 bye they then loast ATS in week 5 and covered in week 6. They were not a play again all season. You an check past seasons on covers.com under NFL teams. |
KongKiller | 273 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Anita z: Lets see some of PSIC's service plays,we can share the cost,thx If you ever heard the old saying "Give a man a fish you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish..........." PSIC pretty much taught me to fish. If you want his picks someone on here posts them almost everyday. It's almost as important to learn how he bets and why he bets as what his actual picks are. Good Luck. |
JoeMoney1440 | 53 |
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Supereagle,
I would quite often take a bankroll your size and double it. I would then ignore all of the things I'd been doing and take a $1500 or $2000 bankroll and turn it into a couple of hundred dollars. I called it "My turning firests into toothpicks tecnique". I tried marketing it and for some reason no one was interested. Starting last basketball season I decided to pick how I was going to approach a season and not vary form it for any reason. I subscribed to PSIC's service and watched this firum closely. with the end of baseball season coming up I am going to be able to start drawing a salary from my sports betting this fall. Now much but it should cover a car payment. My advice, stay conservative, grow slow and don't ever change horses mid stream. Following the different guys here should provide you with all the tools you need. Good Luck |
JoeMoney1440 | 53 |
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Just to review, this system is to play against any team going on a 3+ game road trip?
Thanks in advance. Kevnb |
KongKiller | 855 |
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