Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quote Originally Posted by Drbug2000: It's all math averages. (overall) Points For vs Points Against. Example below. Kan avg 73.4 offense OKL avg 63.5 on defense Total AVG = 68.45 (73.4 + 63.5 / 2) OKL avg 67.4 offense Kan avg 60 defense Total AVG = 63.7 (67.4 + 60 / 2) So the Kan should be favored by 4.74 points ( 68.45 - 63.7) Over/Under is 132.15 points ( 68.45 + 63.7)
Raw stats won't work. You need opponent adjusted stats. You also need to to factor either the league or national mean into the adjusted stats. |
crbeaverjr | 20 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted offensive efficiency, Adjusted defensive efficiency, Adjusted tempo
Those are the 3 main things you need to set a mathematical line. Obviously other factors shade an opener from that. Only a few books set their own lines: Betonline and Bookmaker. Even Pinnacle just copies openers and moves from there. And the rest just copy Pinnacle on every move. |
crbeaverjr | 20 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Thats a great list. One thing you forgot is lookaheads and sandwich spots (a team that can be overlooked when placed between 2 big name schools) Add home court advantage and injuries and you are all set to make great picks. Yes. Good call. Forgot the look ahead and sandwich spots. Thanks. |
grenade | 8 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How would you rank some of these situational spots in CBB in order of importance?
1) Team off huge emotionally draining win. 2) Team off an embarrassing loss. 3) 3rd or more consecutive road game. 4) Same season revenge. 5) Previous season revenge. 6) Double revenge 7) Triple or more revenge 8) Multiple time zone travel. 9) Playing in an unfamiliar time of day like late at night or a morning game. 10) Back-to-back games or 2 in 3 days vs rested team. Which do you guys find to be the strongest or weakest spots? Any others I may be missing? Any |
grenade | 8 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BOL does pay. It just takes them way, way longer than most every book.
The line was at 140 at the time it was posted in the other thread at 8:30:45 PST. The total was still available at a much better line than it is now but the posted 139 was gone 15 minutes before the post was made. Great capper with great insights but virtually impossible to follow when lines are only available at one book and gone by time the posts go up. Good luck. I think you have a winner here. |
riccio14 | 30 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Connecticut was off a loss when they played yesterday. They beat Tulsa last night to make it 4-0. Do you still like them without that trend going for them and back to back with travel?
|
44-dimes | 15 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11: Have to calculate it. Possessions = FGA-OR+TO+(.42*FTA) I use .45 instead of .42, easier to calculate in my head. Thanks Dean Oliver....i think uses .44 |
nropp11 | 56 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11: Pitt settled for outside shots early, they aren't settling anymore and it's opening up quite a bit, now they're hitting some outside shots as well. I like Pitt for the game, so assuming they continue to attack, St. John's is going to have to get out of the zone and with that, you get some more possessions. First half hit 34-35 possessions. Should get the same, if not more here. 2* St. John's/Pitt Over 70.5 (2H) Hey bud Is there a site that tells you amount of possessions during the game or do you go through play by plays in box scores? |
nropp11 | 56 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by ShootDaClubUp: You make it seem like he owes you something , just be happy that hes posting his plays and sharing all his knowledge on cbball , if you dont like it shut the fuck up and get out of here Hey guys I wasn't meaning to come off that way. Didn't think I said anything bad toward anyone to get so many f off replies. nropp11 seems like the most knowledgeable expert in any sport in the whole forum. Wasn't trying to stir anything up here. Hopefully nropp11 can help me out and answer. Being a novice, without time to handicap on my own, would you recommend still playing games after they have moved or just lay off if they are no longer available at the same prices when you post them? No disrespect if that's how it came off. GL |
nropp11 | 130 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by GoBrownsMS72: Unfortunately Austin Peay has gone to -1.5 already. Must be the power of the NROPP! Kinda tough to follow someone's plays when they were bet 5 hours before posted. None of the 3 are available as of the time posted or now. |
nropp11 | 130 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Any thoughts on the semifinals this week?
|
andarmac99 | 14 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Any idea why Terence Smith didn't play vs Louisville or if he's available today?
GL |
nropp11 | 521 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What if.........
Alabama wins out Oregon beats Stanford Oklahoma beats Oklahoma St Arkansas beats LSU That would leave those 7 teams with one loss along with possibly Clemson/Virginia Tech ACC winner with one loss and Boise undefeated. Who would be in title game? This would be probably the best thing to happen to rid of the BCS. |
Boom_Boom | 289 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by bodio: Yeah, I didn't have a chance to be at a computer earlier than when I posted. Figured I'd share the plays at the odds I got them at. In the future, should I just 'grade' them (post them) at the current odds even though what I got is different? Or should I not post them? What do you guys think is best? I would say you should post the current widely available number at the time you post, if you would still play it at that number. If you wouldn't have played the game at the current number, then you probably shouldn't recommend others to do so. Posting lines way off will only discredit you in many people's eyes, even if it seems harmless and was not the intention. Good luck today |
bodio | 63 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by bodio: Yeah I'm sure... PM me, maybe I could help. Need you to accept as friend before it lets me PM. |
bodio | 74 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by bodio: I actually don't have an SI account. I have BoDog but didn't like the -115 juice. I played -4.5 at -110 with my local. By the way, I do have multiple outs: 5Dimes, theGreek, Bookmaker, BoDog (for dogs and unders), and two local bookmakers that I use. I recommend everyone should have at least 2 or 3 as well, as the differences in lines/odds do add up.... Thanks Bodio I figured you didn't like laying more than -110 and I thought I read in a post some time ago that you don't buy points. I figure the best way to win like you is to get the same same numbers as you. Sometimes its very difficult though. GL and go Nuggets! |
bodio | 74 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12: Bodog -4.5 -115 Pinnacle -4.5 -113 Sports Interaction -4.5 -110 Thanks I can't use Pinnacle and I don't think Bodio plays his games at more than -110 so he must have bet it at Sports Interaction. I'm going to look into them. I am trying my hardest to get the same prices as Bodio but it is nearly impossible sometimes. He must have an account at like every book known to man. Thanks nepatriots_12 |
bodio | 74 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by vasilli07: I'm from Asia, using bet365. You can even choose -3 and lower from there. Checked them out and they don't take Americans. Ugh Thanks anyways. |
bodio | 74 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12: wrong, I see a few 4.5s out there Where? If there are, let me know which ones so I can open an account there. |
bodio | 74 |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Where is the -4.5?
Did you buy a half? Every book in the world has 5 or 5.5 GL |
bodio | 74 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.