Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
Just finished team player grading for the Top 60 teams in CFB and the results were very surprising. Many of last years top teams suffered the greatest net losses in terms of both player grading metrics and also by the less accurate stars method. This is surprising to me that many Top teams are net losers of talent this year. I have yet to break down the losses by position yet , but many of them appear to be at key positions. This goes back to what I was trying to communicate to the Forum on the situation with 2 deeps for the coming season. A word of caution on teams with bumped up RSW prices.
|
WISEGUY36 | 4 |
|
|
One more thing to remember about the Transfer Portal going forward. Player movement is not only a personnel decision for some schools, It can also be a financial decision as well due to available NIL money , and some players dash for cash as well as bad advice from greedy agents. Almost half of the 3,000 players in the Portal have yet to find a new home, and have yet to realize their true value, ( or lack of it ) in the current market.
|
WISEGUY36 | 15 |
|
|
A lot of teams that have new Head Coaches have seen quite a few defections from their programs via the Transfer Portal . |
WISEGUY36 | 15 |
|
|
FWIW , I bumped a few old CFB betting threads of mine to share with the Forum some of the thought process I've used in past years that has brought me success in betting College Football. A number of things that I cautioned bettors about back in 2017 have now become a reality. The question is, as a bettor , have you adjusted your capping methods to the new realities of College Football as it exists today. Our goal still remains the same, to be profitable at season's end , but the pathway to that success may require an adjustment or two this season for some bettors. Blessings and Good Luck |
WISEGUY36 | 4 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:
Good luck this year Wise!
Thanks bud, Are you ready for the season yet ? Lotta T. Portal action this year to deal with. Good Luck to you as well. |
WISEGUY36 | 196 |
|
|
Sorry to bump these threads but they bring back some great memories. This is likely be my last season , and I've had a great run at sports betting over the past 40 + years. It has been a true blessing in my life. Blessings and Good Luck to All this season. |
WISEGUY36 | 92 |
|
|
This was the last Bowl Season that I posted to the Forum , in which I share some of my philosophy and approach to Sports Betting. Hopefully some might find it interesting. Blessings and Good Luck. |
WISEGUY36 | 196 |
|
|
This was the last Bowl Season that I posted to the Forum , in which I share some of my philosophy and approach to Sports Betting. Hopefully some might find it interesting. Blessings and Good Luck. |
WISEGUY36 | 196 |
|
|
One of my most fun betting days ever. Thought I'd share this with the Forum. |
WISEGUY36 | 85 |
|
|
@wolfeman3 Mahalo amigo , Keep them Dod's coming braddah. Blessings. @indy2 Indy , Thank you my friend . Blessings to you |
WISEGUY36 | 190 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:
@WISEGUY36 may you be in good health...see you in june perhaps you will have some baseball .....
PG , Blessings and Thank you. I've found that trying to go back and forth between capping CFB and MLB takes a lot more time and makes getting the best result a lot more difficult , and I don't want to mess up my 10 - 1 record if I can help it. Stop by the CFB forum some time |
WISEGUY36 | 190 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by cruisin:
Didn't see the play till the 5th inning, got 6.5 live, so got the winner, thanks again!
Just wanted to let you know that I'm working on CFB openers and probably won't be posting any MLB until after June 1. Blessings |
WISEGUY36 | 190 |
|
|
Well , I've graded all of the Coaching / Coordinator changes for this season , and am currently grading 2 deeps to include graduations and Transfer Portal movement to date. Some huge changes in roster quality in many 2 deeps this season. There are also many in the portal who have not found a home yet. Trying to nail down early matchups , but also get my futures graded so I can still get favorable pricing. Still a lot of work to do before lines come out. Good Luck to All this College Football season. |
WISEGUY36 | 4 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy: @WISEGUY36 Nice run Cuz, do you think UCONN will be as good next season, not sure who they are losing ( players) Thanks Cuz, I'm not sure who UConn may be losing to graduation ,but if Hurley is returning , and with the availability of the TP , UConn should have no trouble either reloading or recruiting to fill their needs for next season. Blessings Cuz
UConn loses a couple of key players to graduation. Looks like they're starting to go to the Portal to reload.
|
WISEGUY36 | 311 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
UConn to win the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament + 1000
Looks like UConn picked up a 4 star from St. Marys via the Transfer Portal. |
WISEGUY36 | 311 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:
@WISEGUY36 well shucks…if you catch a minute check my invitational thread. Hope the weathers great on your island kahuna.
Did find your thread braddah . Sun is just coming up over Diamond Head. Good day on Oahu. Mahalo |
WISEGUY36 | 190 |
|
|
Due to health issues , I may not be posting much , during the upcoming College football season, but I want to give you this to think about , and I cannot emphasize this strongly enough. Follow the Transfer Portal moves very closely , this season they are telling a story by which way and to what teams 3 star or better players are moving to. Some teams are losing the depth at key positions that they enjoyed in years past , and mid tier teams are reaping the benefits . This makes the the ability to draft meaningful Power ratings to start the season much more difficult to determine. Through the course of the season , injuries are likely to take their toll on teams than have lost many of their 2's at key positions to other teams via the Portal , and team depth will likely become a problem . There are plenty of resources to help you to keep up with Rosters and player movements. This is likely to affect those who play RSW's as well as CFB Playoff futures , not to mention following injury reports will likely be much more important as well. The times continue to change in CFB , and only those who are willing to make the time and effort to keep up with all of the changes are likely to profit in the long run. It pays to remember this during the season... " The harder you work, the Luckier you'll get " This is the future of betting College sports , you might as well get used to it. Blessings and Good Luck
|
WISEGUY36 | 15 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:
@WISEGUY36 Hey Wiseguy if you catch this hit me up… sjw_wolfe@ yahoo
Sorry bud. I'm dealing with some serious health issues right now. Blessings my friend |
wolfeman3 | 13 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:
@WISEGUY36 Trying to reach you brother….might be in your area soon.
Sorry bud. I've got some serious health issues I'm dealing with right now. Blessings |
steponaduck | 25 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
I'm not sure that I'd rely too heavily on Connelly's SP + numbers at this point as I'm pretty sure that they likely do not factor in all of the Transfer Portal moves that have happened to date. Back before Connelly went to ESPN , I did a study on his Opening SP + numbers and just how accurate they really were and posted it here on the forum. That was back in 2016 or so. At that time , as I recall , he was about 51 % accurate ( within + /- 7 points of the actual result. ). On 46 % of his projections, he was off by 8 - 39 points on his projected plays from the actual result. On 3 % of his plays , he was off by 40 + points on his projected plays from the actual result. But most importantly , he projected the wrong team to win approx. 30 % of all of the projected games. Granted, my research dates back to 2016, prior to the Transfer Portal, but that should make his work much easier to define than it is now. Connelly's method of calculation of his SP + data has to be much more difficult and potentially much more likely to have accuracy issues due to the Transfer Portal and I would caution all who use his data to be careful and check it to a second source to validate potential RSW's.
I posted this in my Preseason thread . I will repost it here to support my point. There are currently over 3,000 players that have entered the Transfer Portal this season. So far , 1,500 or so are committed to a team for the coming season. Before you use Connelly's data , you might want to do what I did and check the accuracy of his last years opening SP+ game projections vs the actual results of last years games. It took me roughly 10 hours to do the whole schedule It might save you from a few bad bets. Good Luck
|
steponaduck | 25 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.