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For the 2nd half of the MLB season, I will have the Trend Query and The Steak Tables working in full capacity (finally). Right now, there's only a few people entering MLB picks into the tracker. If we could get 30 - 50 people willing to make 2nd half MLB picks into the tracker, I could use the consensus tools and look for games where each tool and the consensus points the same way as to the team with the highest probability of winning. I'll post the picks here at covers in a thread. We need at least 30 but more like 50 or more in order for the consensus to have data to work with. NFL we have no problem getting people, NBA either, MLB is challenging because you have the Godfather of sports coming up in about 8 weeks and people are just lying low. We can keep the pick record and unit won/lost total right here so everyone can see.
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TonyTotals | 14 |
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A lot of people are leery about the registration. Make up a name and address, I don't care. All that matters is you enter your opinion on sports. It's somewhere for bettors to plug themselves into. Especially anyone who needs a life line. And your current routine is still part of it, I still want you to do whatever it is you do before deciding to put money behind a selection, but instead of betting on it I want you to enter it into the tracker and just wait, when game time approaches research the betting pool and see who do your peers have? Who do the hottest people in the community have? Who do the coldest have in the game? How do those due for a correction statistically fair in the game? Using this filterable consensus you are going to know how exactly every demographic of bettor fairs in the game. You will have a complete psychological breakdown of the betting pool. That will point to the team the system thinks has the higher probability of winning. You take that answer and you go to the trend query and look up the teams ATS record in the game situation to see where they are in their streak timeline. Just starting one? Middle of one? End of one? Or on borrowed time? You hope to get a match somewhere. You then look at the streak tables and see if the team itself is on there or its opponent. If one of them is, you hope you get a match there as well. If you do, you have a team with a very high probability pf winning, so says the software.
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TonyTotals | 11 |
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just did a quick look over the trend query and I fond a nice spot for people to fade in the 2nd half and it should appear 5 times or more:
FADE MIA as a R/D 120 or less. That's a spot where MIA should win 45.5% of the time probability wise. They are winning in this spot 78% of the time their last nine. Hopefully before play resumes I can compile the full list of the Follow/Fade correction situations and I'd bet on the unit Total at the end of the season will be higher than any pregame pro will do in MLB in the 2nd half. |
TonyTotals | 14 |
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That's why an avg. is computed for each individual bettor. Someone with a downward trend avg. of 7.2 and another with an avg. of 9.1 can both be over their averages at the same time.
This is going to be the first comprehensive, complete, public tracker where those who submit opinions into it are permitted use of the many tools it offers for research. |
TonyTotals | 11 |
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SF was an easy winner, as most big faves are, but you just wait and see how good the software is at selecting underdogs. |
TonyTotals | 14 |
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Yes. What I am saying is, what if we threw 1,000 opinions or 10,0000 opinions into a hat, and we were able to weight these opinions based on historical ability, current season ability, correction averages, sport ability, game situation ability, current status - Hot or Cold. Would we be able to come away from the process with the team with the higher probability of covering the spread. The software is a one of a kind handicapping tracker that keeps stats on the games and stats on the bettors. We calculate avg. upward and downward trend averages so the system knows how long to expect winning and losing streaks to last for each bettor, then users will have the controls to retrieve such information. Meaning, let's say 1,000 people enter opinions. You can view a consensus that contains all opinions on all games that you can then search through by historical ability. So you can isolate all NFL bettors who are between 40 - 49% correct on their picks and just see a consensus that holds their info, or you can filter the consensus in a way that allows you to isolate all bettors in the game pools that are past their avg. upward trend, meaning people mathematically due for a correction downward, let's say that's 15 people out of the 1000, then you can see a consensus for each game that holds just the opinions of those 15 people. What would you do or how would you feel if you saw ten or more of those 15 on one side of a game? I know what I would do, and I would have math on my side as all 15 of these people are on borrowed time for their win streak. You will have access to databases of information on teams and bettors themselves and be able to look for spots where let's say a team is due for a correction and it just so happens most of the 57.5% or over bettors in the sport are also on that correction. We are looking for situations where probability is on our side to win and trying to line up these situation as they tend to bettors and teams cause then we exponentially increase the probability of winning. It's really gonna be a one of a kind community. The only cost to it will be your opinion, everything else will be free access to a half dozen different tools and all the consensus filters.
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TonyTotals | 11 |
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Soon the software will be readily available where every bettor who'd like to know such things in every sport will have the opportunity at their finger tips.
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TonyTotals | 14 |
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Loking through the games today, I saw that ARI is on a STEP 1 LOSING STREAK with the kine being ARI +225. Teams on this step as a R/D 181 or more have a break percentage of 0%. 0 - 5. That means the losing streak has continued all 5 times.
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TonyTotals | 14 |
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While testing some software last year in MLB, we collected results for the last two and a half months of the season and calculated teams BREAK and CONTINUE percentages when they were on winning or losing streaks. A team was on Step 1 of a streak once they recorded 3 like decisions in a row, so on Step 1 a team is going for four in a row, step 2 is going for 5 in a row and so on. Here's what we've found: BAD TEAMS (teams with a .500 record or worse) on a Step 1 losing streak were 51 - 51 (50% ATS). But is the team is a Home/Fav/ 121 - 140 then their record is 7 - 0, which means they have broken the losing streak all 7 times in this game situation. Other notable subset situations: H/F101 - 120: 5 - 2 R/F 101 - 120: 6 - 2 R/D 181 - 200: 0 - 5 H/d 141 - 160: 2 - 6 BAD TEAMS ON A STEP 1 WINNING STREAK: 33 breaks - 16 continues (67.35%) Break Percentage. Good and Bad Situations: H/D 101 - 120: 4 - 1 H/F 121 - 140: 5 - 1 R/D 121 - 140: 4 - 0 GOOD TEAMS ON A STEP 1 LOSING STREAK: 9 - 14 (39.13%) Good and Bad Situations: H/F 181 and up: 3 - 0 H/F; H/D; R/F all at 101 - 120: combined 1 - 4 GOOD TEAMS ON A STEP 2 LOSING STREAK: 12 - 3 (80%). 12 out of 15 broke their losing streak at this step. 3 losses came as: H/F 101 - 120 R/F 101 - 120 R/F 141 - 160 BAD TEAMS ON A STEP 2 LOSING STREAK: 19 - 27 (41.23%) BEST SITUATIONS: H/D 101 - 120: 0 - 6 (streak continued all 6 times) R/D 101 - 120: 5 - 2 H/F 121 - 140: 3 - 1 R/D 121 - 140: 1 - 3 After the all star break I am finally going to have the completed version of these streak tables uploaded to my tracker. So we will have all the 2nd half stats from last year and all the first half stats from this year to use to find good situations in the second half. One of the tool is done I will make a walkthrough video on how to use it. Searching through this test data, as you can see, I have uncovered some really golden stats, it will be interesting to see what happens to these stats once yhe first half of this year is added to them. Did they correct? Or did they stay on track? Should be interesting. Because besides corrections within handicapping stats, I alos have seen momentum, meaning when something starts out 3 - 0 or 3 - 1 usually it carries that momentum out at least 5 - 8 more trials. I have seen that countless times. These streak tables will be good for us in every sport to see how teams perform when they are on a streak ATS backed up by historical percentages. |
TonyTotals | 14 |
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What do you do before you decide you lay money down on a pick? What is it that's the deciding factor? What needs to line up for you in a game matchup for you to say you like one side or another? What you do during that process ultimately decides whether you are a winner or loser. I know that I have changed my outlook on what needs to be done. If you are looking at game and player stats then you have already lost IMO. There's not a stat you can uncover that won't be factored into the line, plus the line makers have access to stats and intimate team info that the avg. bettor will never know. If you think Vegas/Costa Rica Sports Books are good at what they do then there can be no advantage gained by analyzing stats. Let's face it they have software that can analyze the stats of a game way more in depth than you ever could. Knowing that a team with a bad run D is playing a good running team is not knowing anything. Let's face it, how many people can really open the newspaper, or in this day and age go to the laptop, and pick winners out of their ass 52 weeks every year? The access just isn't there fpr the avg. bettor to be that chop out winner winning fractions of units each day across all sports. Sports books are erected on the backs of the nickel and dime bettor who has nothing more than stats out of a newspaper or laptop to come to battle with.
I've always been a numbers guy, was always good in math in school. I've been studying the ATS records of both teams and bettors for just about 11 months now. I have realized a very important fact. Skewed records return to the mean. For sports with spreads, in theory, every bettor and every team should be close to 50% once enough trials have been run. I can tell you I have been collecting public opinions and entering them into software. Every bettor that has entered more than 700 opinions is somewhere between 52% and 49%. There's about a dozen people that have done so and all of them are that close to 50%. Someone who starts out at 65% over the first few weeks of NFL will have a correction period where they win only 35% of the time. I've watched it happen time and time again happen to people. And vice-versa, if someone starts out cold as ice they will have a hot streak at some point. Same goes for teams. For Instance, using a Trend Query research tool I have developed I was able to find out that the San Diego Chargers are 7 - 2 - 1 ATS (77.78%) as a Road/Dog between 3 and 6.5 the last three seasons. I predict that a correction will start this season. I expect SD to be a Road dog between 3 and 6.5 at least 4 out of the 8 road games, maybe more. We'll see. I found lots more really skewed stats with the teams in the NFL as well. I'll list them on the boards as the season nears. I bet if you just wagered upon these corrections and left your personal opinion out of it that you would win money for the season. I really feel most bettors are standing in the way of their own success. They overrate their abilities or just go with their gut. Our opinions are useful if we had a place where we could enter them and have them go into the pot with all the other opinions that were offered and then use search and filter tools that allowed you to pull certain opinions from the community based on the ability of the handicappers, or based on who is currently hot or cold, or based upon what kind of streak individual bettors are on. It's like one thread of silk, by itself it is weak and can be torn, but put it with hundreds or thousand of other silk strands and it is impenetrable. Right now I am near completion of software that will look for these skews and time them as well as far as when is the highest probability for them to break, also each community member will have access to tools that will allow them to sift through the opinions in every game's betting pool using a various combination of filters, and access to the Trend Query tool so you can look for the skews yourself. Upward and Downward trend data will be calculated and graphed for every user and every team. Use the data to predict corrections, look for when corrections of teams line up with the corrections of bettors. There will be many more tools as well. Nothing costs money either. The only thing you have to pay is with your opinion. Entering Your opinion gets you past the firewall and gives you access to many, many unique tools you have never seen or used before. If you are a $25 or $50 bettor and you are tired of doing what you are doing, I have an unbelievable alternative for you that will cost you nothing and certainly do much better than you will ever do on your own. |
TonyTotals | 11 |
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Never heard of them, but this one goes out to all those who have been told that they were not liked by someone else... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q5EwDp20PM
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TonyTotals | 6 |
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If you live in a more rural part of your state, you will love this one... |
TonyTotals | 6 |
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Here is a sample of one... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNLh2Z6Ku10
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TonyTotals | 6 |
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For anyone interested I got the Tony Totals YouTube channel up and running where I turn some of my famous rants into videos. Caution, only watch if you need a laugh.
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TonyTotals | 6 |
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Every time you go into these places and order something they ask you if you'd like to donate $1 to feeding the homeless or cancer research, I say no thank you and then ask how much is it to super size my fries. Oh, a dollar fifty? I'll take it! I feel like an azzhole enough, I don't need their help. Don't make me come into your joint and deny the needy $1 before I eat. |
TonyTotals | 5 |
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Just remember the rules of being a racist. 1. You can not associate any race with a specific fruit or vegetable 2. You can not associate any race with a specific protein meat There's only one stereotype I know of that you can openly use and not be labeled a bigot. You can throw around the black guy/big d!ck thing all you want, no one will tell you to shut up |
TonyTotals | 5 |
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God dam that guy that made up stereotypes. They are just so false and hold no merit. You know why people say Asians smell like garlic? Because some idiot spun a wheel of spices and it landed on garlic. Pure luck of the draw. Italians don't pee on the street corner. That's just hear say. You'd never find pineapple soda at an African American barbecue. It's just a shame that someone took the time to sit down and make up all this sh!t about every culture. It's just not right. You go to any black guy and spout off any of the classic stereotypes like watermelon and fried chicken and they'd be pissed but you can tell them they have a big d!ck all day long and they'd never get pissed. Just for the record not every Italian guy knows one person n the mafia, some of us know two people, |
TonyTotals | 5 |
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You know wht hit me the other day? How 'sex addiction' is a whole thing now since Tiger Woods. You have an 'illness' cause you like your prick sucked on. No, blowjobs just feel very, very good. You are perfectly healthy. Imagine two guys sitting outside a doctor's office. One is in a wheel chair, getting oxygen, an IV in his arm, looking frail and weak. The other looks like Zach fuckin' Efron. Zach turns to the frail looking man and asks, 'Are you okay?" The sick man replies: No, I am very sick. My organs are shutting down and they can't find out why. You waiting for someone?
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TonyTotals | 86 |
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Last day of the regular season. The weather is changing. Its getting warmer and girls are wearing less clothing. Time to trade in my IPhone for the S edition for those upskirt shots I like to take. A few years ago, some politician somewhere said taking upskirt pictures of a woman was not breaking any laws of the constitution. Now, that's a politician I can rally behind. No pun intended. I say we elect the guy president and maybe we can have upskirt Thursdays or something. There's just something appealing about two smooth behind cheeks being wedgied by a pair of thing panties. On the last day of the season, there are no trends or handicapping tools that can help you. There's no rhyme or reason for why a team resting players can cover or not cover. All I know is this, after six months and 81 games of basketball, no team will cover 18 points when going for a history breaking season. my one play for tonight is MEM +18. That's from Upskirt Burt to you.
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TonyTotals | 86 |
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Just a few days left in the season. Here's what we got for tonight: MIL +4 WAS -6 CHI +3.5 |
TonyTotals | 86 |
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