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I respect your perspective, even more so as a valued contrarian angle. One thought I wanted to address was: "Let’s get to the fools gold. Bills played a cupcake schedule this season and didn’t fair well when playing teams with a winning record." The Bills, counting last week's win vs. NE, hold a record of 7-5 vs teams with winning records... so-so. But that means they played 12 of 17 games vs. teams with winning records. That, on its face, qualifies as a quality schedule. In looking at games vs. quality opponents: Week 3 - Bills 19, Packers 0 - One of three Bills shutouts by a combined 94 points this season. Week 5 - Bills 38, Chiefs 20 - Bills run away from the Chiefs in their house. Week 6 - Bills 31, Titans 34 (O/T) - Bills lose heartbreaker vs. AFC's #1 seed. Week 14 - Bills 27, Bucs 33 - Bills can't beat the GOAT in Tampa. Week 16 - Bills 33, Patriots 21 - Bills notch 12-point victory in Foxboro in critical matchup. Week 18 - Bills 47, Patriots 17 - Bills tell 'em twice like Ike Turner on a bender. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The AFC East featured 3 teams with winning records. All that being said, I hope this adds some perspective to the conversation regarding strength of schedule and quality of play vs. teams with winning records. It's true that the Chiefs look to be running on all cylinders with the newly tweaked offense. Andy Reid can always be considered an X-Factor and the Puppet Master seems to have things running smoothly. It may also be true that the Bills are peaking at the right time. Looking at those wins vs. quality opponents, you see 3 games early in the season where Ruff Buff looked unbeatable. Then Josh Allen slipped and the Bills let a road win vs. Tennessee slip away. They were not the same team for several weeks afterword. But since the Week 14 loss in Tampa, the Bills have never lost and there appears to be no answer for Josh Allen, whether through the air or on the ground. In that 5-game stretch they have outscored their opponents 167 - 77 (+90). I feel like at the end of the day, the Bills play better defense and the added threat of Josh Allen as a primary runner will add stress to the Chiefs D in critical junctures. Thoughts? This should be the matchup of the week. GL |
Tailgatingcats | 36 |
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This posting is completely useless and unnecessary. It's little Tommy nervously talking and biting his nails counting down the minutes before Brutus the playground bully makes good on his promise to beat him like Ike Turner at high noon
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tchamps | 21 |
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7 pt teaser: Pit +8 and GB/Dal under 60
GL all |
Baby_BA | 12 |
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Good info guys. I'm not in that tax bracket yet but it's good to know what resources are out there when you're making big "investments." Much appreciated
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ProudJagsfan | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma: not until Jim Harbaugh leaves Michigan and coaches for the Colts. they need a defense..... until then no Andrew Luck in the Super Bowl Funny you say that. Harbaugh's competitive spirit is what made me become a Colts fan (one dropped hail mary from the SB that year). It is alarming that people actually think things like this are scripted as if Vince McMahon is on the NFL's payroll. If someone truly feels the system is rigged then why would they continue to wager their money? Accept backdoor covers and whatever one defines a "bad beat" as. If not, bow out of the game and do anything else that has a level playing field in your mind. Just like pimpin', sports wagering ain't easy! |
dopeman | 8 |
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Good information and thanks for sharing your experiences. I used to be a casual sports gambler a few years ago but picked it up again in Week 11 NFL. I no longer drink and have gained enough self-discipline to handle the many ups and downs associated with the endeavor.
I'm actually winning on the season, which is pure luck but also encouraging going forward. Many of the ground rules you guys listed I've either read about in a couple useful books or learned along the way. It takes time to develop a personal system, so the wisdom gained here in a few short weeks has been invaluable. It's been a labor of love and I'm thankful for the contributions from our Covers community. I may add a few to this thread but I'm still catching up on sleep from New Year's and need a good night's rest before putting together a coherent synopsis. Thanks again for your posts and BOL to you all through the playoffs |
ProudJagsfan | 29 |
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I no-played it. Going to wait to see what each team does in their first series before making a move. GL this half fellas
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SonicBlue | 11 |
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Penalties contributed to poor game flow and offense in the 1st half. Contemplating taking the 2nd H over as Oklahoma heats up and Auburn has to chase. Could also result in points on turnovers if Auburn has to start taking more risks...
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SonicBlue | 11 |
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Opening HT lines: Aub +3, over/under 31
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SonicBlue | 11 |
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New QB in the game, Auburn able to move the ball on the ensuing drive. Thoughts on how the 2nd half will play out with him in the game?
OK will have a chance to make some adjustments to the QB situation during this HT, but does Franklin's presence help the Auburn run game overall? This is a good opportunity to find some value here before the last 30 minutes plays out. What's the forecast? |
SonicBlue | 11 |
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Thanks for the perspective. GL
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jmswtc | 4 |
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Keep an eye on the Darius Slay injury. That defense/secondary much better when he's there and effective. He's currently listed as a game time decision...
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Jeter06 | 3 |
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Beware EJ Manuel, the OVERkiller. GL
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pipedoctor | 10 |
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PRO IND:
Jax hasn't won in Week 17 and Indy hasn't lost Week 17 since 2011 when SUCK4LUCK was in full effect. Last year when Indy seemingly had nothing to play for except draft picks, they won their last 2 with Hasselbeck (including 1 on the road). While Indy is as up and down as a 7 - 8 team can be, Jax has won 3 games all season, 1 on the road. PRO JAX: While the VI Consensus line was released as Ind -7, no books offered higher than -6. Of the 3 that did, all dropped to exactly -4.5 by Monday morning... suggesting sharp action on JAX. Jax has won ATS in 2 straight. BET: No play/In-game/Ind -3 (1st H) As a Colts fan, I will back or fade my team because at the end of the day they're not sending me tickets and I'll take money over homerism every time. I can't say with confidence that they will cover this game, but they will certainly show up ready to play. They've gotten hot out of the gates in some recent games, so the -3 (1st H) may be the ticket if there's one to be had. Indy is banged up and limping to the finish line on defense once again, so I could see the over in play here too. Like Robert Mathis, Gore could be playing in his last game... difference between them being that Gore can still have an effect on the game. Would be interested to read about any other angles you might have as a Jags fan. GL |
ProudJagsfan | 7 |
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It's a great question to pose, since there's money to be made every step of the way. Although week 17 is often a terrible week to bet period, you may find some situations where a team is likely to jump out quick then call off the dogs.
There are several teams playing with nothing to lose, which means you could see more chunk plays and aggressive play calling. NO/Atl I actually like the under because the Falcons just need to win and it would be foolish to take a lot of unnecessary risks especially early in the game. You can't win the game in the 1st half, but you can certainly lose it. You can get it as high as 29 at this time. Sea/SF over 21.5 is another possibility, although the Hawks may have to do it all themselves. The Niners can mail it in here even at home and I doubt they'll be trying to "win one for the Chipper." The best bet is probably no bet and have your finger on the trigger for in-game plays once we get a feel for who's come to play. GL DK |
Digitalkarma | 4 |
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Yeah after watching like 3 straight runs of 10+ yds it's time to yank him in the red zone. I had the over and was really looking forward to that TD. Can't believe how many turnovers did NOT get turned into points in that game. Oh, well. NEXT.
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Crailtap34 | 3 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin: adding NW / Pitt 2H over 31' *smaller play (BetOnline) others.... lean only Miami / looks like a toss-up....total looks right played the UNDER on Utes/Indy.....and very small on Indiana at 7' played Kan St +3....and very small play on ML as well..... ... and just like that the tide has turned and you're heating up heading into tomorrow, where more big dogs are on the horizon |
bookieassassin | 328 |
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What do you like about the 1st half over? Many bowl games are going under... and both games so far today went under for the 1st Half (although only by 1.5 points between the 2).
After not playing for a month I could see where teams can be shaking off the rust early in the game before hitting a rhythm. I do like the over for the full game but was tempted to take first half unders tonight. Would like to hear your thoughts. |
Damon102 | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by big10buckeye: Call me crazy but I think it's a head fake by the books. Not only am I not buying out I'm doubling down. This goes against everything I believe but these bowl games have also resulted opposite of everything I believe. I'll be a champ or a chump. Kyle Whittingham 9-1 bowl record with Utah Tom Allen coaching in his first game as HC of Indiana Game played in Santa Clara, much closer to home game for Utes Whether it's a pre-emptive strike by the books or B1G backers giving the Hoosiers too much credit, I'm doubling down too. No reason to doubt Utah today. Let's hope West Virginia holds on and everyone bets the dog trend in effect since yesterday. Maybe it will approach 3 by game time. |
big10buckeye | 46 |
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I don't see why Houston would give that spirited an effort on the road when they've got to gear up for their first round exit next week. I doubt Lamar Miller will play under any circumstances and the rest of the RB scrubs are simply awful.
Tennessee relies much more on the run, so having Cassel in there may not be as big a loss as a team that throws 40+ times a game. I guess the swing vote would be Tom Savage and if he's progressed at all in the past couple weeks. Opposing teams will also have 2 games of current film on him now as well. Watch for the inactives report on Sunday. To be continued... |
JetsFan37 | 6 |
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