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Quote Originally Posted by Doni13: Ok........so I am confused: I realize on the zig zag theory, we are supposed to bet "on" the team that lost the previous game. However, the exact wording is "Here are the POINT SPREAD" results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 to 2014: Game two: Tonights games: Milw vs Chic and NO vs GS 195-153-13 Ok, since the key words are Point Spread results, DO I BET ON GOLDEN STATE (THEY LOST THE POINT SPREAD IN GAME ONE) The NO/CHic game is easy: Bet on NO, because they lost both point spread and SU. But even then: Do I bet on NO to win, or to cover. So, does my questions make sense? Personally, I don't think I will use Zig Zag theory until games change home courts, but the theory is confusing to me. I don't think you should consider the time before the current format. NBA Prelim all 59-37 (.615) 72-24 (.750) NBA Prelim H 55-14 (.797) 59-10 (.855) NBA Prelim V 4-23 (.148) 13-14 (.481) Those are since best of 7 was introduced when leading 1-0, SU only, couldn't find ATS. |
Doni13 | 10 |
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Thanks Kaptn.
This reminds me of something I came up with some 15 years ago & played for a few years. I don't know how to search the databases for this, but if 200+ wins a season are a constant, I can handle the losses.
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BuckeyeKaptn | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn: That's what I got...just the first game, then chase them. Here's the thread from 2011. There are some filters: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101020098 I like that it is only a 3 game chase. Any records for other seasons?
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BuckeyeKaptn | 37 |
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You were saying some of the lines get better & some get worse. If that's an evenish split it will even out in the long run & you take what you can get.
However, if you're getting mostly lower lines the question is how far off are you on average & what's the ROI of the punter you're following. Without exact data, there is no correct answer what you should do here. Either way, you don't mess with posted stakes & you follow/skip/fade depending on the data. |
soltantgris | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by soltantgris: Thanks - but it is not the part that is difficult for me. What is difficult is to considere the fact that a line moving into this or this direction may mean that the line was or was not good from the start. So how to adjust. You don't adjust. Lines move & you will never be able to replicate the bets 100%. You just bet what you can get. |
soltantgris | 7 |
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Hi BeefMan, great job. I'm really looking forward to the rest of the season.
Anything else on tomorrow's card beside LA(B game)? Thanks |
TheBeefMan | 138 |
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After a 6-0 day what can I say man???
There are some good cappers here, but there's only one King. |
BritBull | 103 |
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Sensational job in the first round BB.
Let's keep the $ rolling in. |
BritBull | 103 |
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Sensational capping Sir. 10-3-2 is out of this world. And I've managed to add a little on top of that making my own bets by just following your write ups and opinions. Keep killing it, you're in a zone.
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BritBull | 103 |
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Sevilla +0.5
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Gogic | 1 |
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@CaseyAffleck/Ganda
He left his e-mail, how hard is it to make 2 clicks with your mouse?? |
BritBull | 47 |
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Jeff do you perhaps have the monthly breakdowns of just the 1st game in the chase ML and RL?? Thanks.
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JEFFTHEHAT | 242 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22: Don't think it is really hate so much as it is when someone does well then starts to have a bad streak they go tout right quick it seems. Maybe this frustrated people. Maybe if he had done it for a whole year osr so people wouldn't have been upset. Lot of people also wondered about why he didn't post record on regular basis with sports. Looked back and NBA was 22-20 through 3-3 to 3-27 or so--not counting 2H plays, which seem like chases to me. Don't know about soccer and March Madness. I do my own thing there. But get the feeling he did much better on those. Maybe some are hating it because they were relying on him though. But 62% is very nice no matter what and if he wants to get paid, good luck to him. FYI the 2H plays that you call chases were flat bet at 2 units and were 17-8 if my records are right. |
BritBull | 47 |
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Quote Originally Posted by composite: For the life of me, I don't understand this. Why the hate for someone charging for picks? You don't hate a mutual fund manager or stockbroker for charging for picks. What's wrong w/ charging for sports picks? My only concern is that people who go tout seem to do worse like bigeastexpert. Maybe it's the added pressure that there's money on the line. Who knows. But I don't fault them for going tout. The people who hate are either the one who have tried to do it themselves and failed or the ones that would love to do it themselves but aren't nowhere near good enough in the first place and never will be. This is pretty much the same everywhere regardless of what your job is and what part of the planet you call home. You also said noone wins forever, which is true, but I think the public expectations are the problem here. The best cappers on the planet win 57-58-59% ATS long term(pretty much a well known fact) because edges come and go and those are the numbers that people should be focusing on because those numbers will fill their pockets with money more than any fund manager ever will. However, for some weird reason, the largest part of the public expects the touts to win at 70% long term and that is just plain stupid. Add into the mix 99% of the betting public have no/bad bank roll management and the recipes for blowing all your money is done. BB posted 62% here since the fall and all of us who followed know he even had terrible luck for the last few weeks and he still beat the best with his numbers. You don't post 60%+ on 400+ bets, multi sport too, by accident. He will make it, no doubt. |
BritBull | 47 |
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7-3 on Sunday, The King has returned.
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BritBull | 758 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jepjep02: Nobody will hit 60-70% all year. https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=36&sub=101838635&page=26 This guy has, posts multi sports. Check him out, he's probably the best one on the whole site. The guy just doesn't lose, steady as a rock week in week out. |
erapmicks | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by examine: my point is that is goin to cool off Why? If he's really good he will continue to post winners like that BritBull guy. He's been @ 65% since October week in week out. If he has an off week and goes @ 50% he kills it in the next one. So if Frank is as good, he will do the same. |
Frank_White | 2557 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BritBull: Arsenal +2/PSG ML double 2.42 I'm taking this now as there is practically 0% these lines get better. Regarding the Arsenal game.... I don't care who's playing, I don't care about the form, I don't care what kind of records(good or bad) they have been breaking. The simple fact is Arsenal +2 opened at 1.30/-333 and now it's at 1.73/-138. That's a 2$ move on the spread!!!! On a knock out round CL game????? I love public perception. And were not talking some gigantic +2000 dog moving to +1800. If that alone wasn't enough people quickly forgot Arsenal were the better team early in the first game and missed the penalty(OK Bayern missed one too later on) and that in this same spot last year Bayern, after crushing Arsenal in the first game, went through by the skin of their teeth on away goals. Regardless of weather I win or lose this one, please God let me find a move like this every day and I know I will die a rich man. And for those of you who don't remember, I had the largest bet this year on Bayer ML in the first game, so I'm not biased and don't hate German teams either. And if that wasn't enough, a perfect prediction of the Man City/Barcelona game as a side dish. All hail The King |
BritBull | 758 |
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Quote Originally Posted by franz555: No mixing league form here. Not sure if anyone told you yet.......Bayern are the defending Champions League Champions. They have their two best players back today in Ribery and Schweinsteiger. Are Bayern heavily juiced and Bet ? Of course they are. But it's for good reason. No PUBLIC OVERREACTION here. I don't bet on 9 good minutes of football at home either. This same Arsenal team lost 1 - 0 at Stoke and 5 - 1 at Liverpool in their last 2 road games. This ain't Kansas Dorothy, it's a HUGE step up when you travel to Munich. |
BritBull | 758 |
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And I'd really like to see that troll come back here and try to take another swing with that "Bayern the greatest team ever" attitude.
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BritBull | 758 |
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