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In the real world, in order to bet 500 units (dollars, pennies, donkeys, etc.), you have to have those in your account to bet. In the Covers.com contests, you are not betting units but NET units - the amount to be won if you had actually bet with real world spreads priced in. For example, to bet a -150 favorite, you risk 750 units to win 500. Yes you can lose every game and still keep betting the maximum amounts with a negative balance. Since you are not risking anything real, this is simply a contest to see who can put together the best betting record over time. |
Maximus1978 | 2 |
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"No extra games to gain on leader now"
Oh man, you can't give up after just 3 games. Final series Sweeps are rare in any professional sport. Remember, there is nothing particularly logical or inevitable about sports gambling. S--T happens. To paraphrase Yogi, it ain't over until the fat lady takes a dump.
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bradytime31 | 2 |
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03-Jun31-May28-May bradytime31 -1100 13000 -50 14100 -50 14150 PAS13 1000 15000 -50 14000 -50 14050
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bradytime31 | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bradytime31:
Guess all you guru's can't explain it Don't need to explain anything -- just add backwards: You remembered incorrectly. Your lead was 100 units, not 150. And it seems you don't have that problem anymore. |
bradytime31 | 5 |
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Contact Covers/help/technical support. They've very good about fixing little things like that, if it is an actual problem. Could it be that you forgot to hit "Submit" after you made your picks? I've done that once, when I was in a hurry. |
BonkNYC | 3 |
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I received my covers hoodie today after having placed 16th in the NBA regular season contest. This is my second after having made the top 20 in the 2012 NFL regular contest. This one is black as opposed to the older style dark blue and the covers logo is not so subtly embroidered large on the front, where the older ones had a simple small nameplate-type logo in the upper left corner. It's 50/50 cotton/polyester, and arrived today April 25th, just 11 days after I received my address confirmation email. Thanks again to covers.com.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/88017155@N04/26642724145/ |
steroidabusers | 21 |
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So that if you have been following the MLB contest you know the current leader (June 19 - sssnnnlll) is using a remarkably stupid system that for the most part keeps working day. Here is what he does every day - TAKE THE DOGS - every game, every day. The only exceptions seem to be pickems where he will take the team higher in the standings. Only rarely does this system seem to backfire and the losing days have been well outnumbered by winners. As far as Totals the only pattern I can see is he seems to assume every game will land on about 8 runs and bet over or under the number accordingly. Yeah, okay I get the math -- you only need slightly less than half of the dogs to win in order to make a profit but my question is Are the books' lines so bad day after day that you only have to play the percentages of random chance to win this thing? How much you want to bet that guy doesn't watch games or even follow baseball?
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BRYGUY | 3 |
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For those who might think that the Covers contests are not real, my hoodie arrived yesterday.
I placed 20th in the NFL regular season contest using a very conventional system of ranking teams based on yards allowed. I didn't even begin until Week 7 or 8 of the season and had a couple very lucky weeks. Covers sent me an email on the Monday Jan 2 after the regular season closed to confirm my address. I responded immediately and my hoodie arrived yesterday Feb 3. It's 80 percent cotton 20 polyester and size XL like I requested. Overall I'm very pleased. A picture
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BRYGUY | 1 |
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Sorry if someone has answered this question somewhere else but I can't figure this one out:
Last night Nov 3rd, I had the Rangers -138 who won in a shootout and it was graded a PUSH. I also had San Jose -135 who won a shootout and it was graded a WIN. What's the difference???
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BRYGUY | 6 |
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I don't know the exact value but isn't it true in MLB that favorites win at least 60 percent of the time?
Do the calculation and you'll see that so long as you don't lay more than -150 juice you're guaranteed to break even over the long term. 60 wins x 100/150 = 40 units won 40 losses x -1 = 40 units lost Profit (or Loss) = 0
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Tone10 | 11 |
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Okay, I figured it out.
The Covers Experts state their results based on the payouts -- not the bets. In my example above, nowhere is it mentioned that you would have had to bet 11.9 units to win 7, but they do correctly state the amount you would have lost (for example 1100 on a 10 unit (-110) bet.) Its very confusing, but it seems they're not misleading people. My apologies.
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BRYGUY | 3 |
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Correction:
7 units x 100/170 is 4.11 units of profit, not 5.88. 411 units would only be 41% less profit than he is reporting, but I guess we're no supposed to see that.
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BRYGUY | 3 |
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Looking at the LAST 10 PICKS section for Covers Expert Ben Burns, it seems he and the other "Experts" seem to report the amount they bet as their profit and not the actual profit you would have made given the betting line. For example, check his pick on the Montreal Canadiens last night.
He rates it a 7-star pick and gives himself a profit of 700 units (7 units x $100, I guess)
In fact, if you bet 7 units on Montreal (-170 Money Line) , your profit would have been 7 x 100/170 or 5.88 units -- NOT 7, or 700 for that matter.
And don't tell me that what he meant was to bet the puckline (-1.5 goals) as that would have paid about +180 and is not mentioned anywhere in his analysis.
Please tell me how Covers Experts is not completely misleading potential customers hoping they're not smart enough to notice.
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BRYGUY | 3 |
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One interesting stat that may point out under-valued teams is their winning percentage compared to the expected payout. For example, a team that has won 40 percent of their games over a given time period has a multiplier of 1/0.4 or 2.50, meaning you would need a payout of 2.50 to break even if you win only 40 percent of the time If the dog is +130, the payout is 2.30 before deducting the 1.00 bet. Since 2.30 is less than 2.50, that would rule out betting on the team if you hope to be profitable in the long term, juice notwithstanding. |
pastafazoola | 9 |
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Please explain your profit calculation for this month so far. After Saturday the 26th, your balance was $3490. Sunday (bet $612), Monday (bet $500), and Tuesday (bet $450) all lost so your new balance should be $1928, not $719. Just wondering... |
centralflaguy | 72 |
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Quote Originally Posted by centralflaguy:
RECORD JUNE 16-8 + $ 2,910.00 $ 280.00 TO WIN $ 200.00 =MONEY MANAGEMENT 1) I believe you made a math error with your monthly total. If you lost your pick on the 24th, your new total would be $2990, not $2910. ($3390 minus $400). 2) Why have you suddenly changed your formula of betting whatever amount it takes to win $500? I never understood betting MORE when the odds pay less. Your timing was good, though. 3) PLEASE, I'm not criticizing, but true money management involves scaling your bets to your bankroll. That allows you to increase your winnings when you go on a streak and cut back after a loss. $400 one day and $280 the next? That's not a system. 4) Once again, I don't want to sound negative. These are just the facts. Plus 9 wins for the month so far has translated into a net gain of 4.67 units, which is good but not as great as some here want to believe.
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centralflaguy | 153 |
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I've only been tracking Covers Experts MLB picks since April 17. My calculations assume a one-unit bet on every pick. If you had bet one unit flat (Money Line Bets) on each of his 32 picks in that time, you would be up 8.03 units. My daily payout numbers are taken from the Sports Interaction site. I stand behind my calculations. I'll email you my Excel file if you want to see it. |
payday000 | 7 |
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Sorry for these screwups. The posting system does not seem to allow you to preview your post. One last time... EXPERT TOTALS Doc Sports 8.03 Big Al McMordie 7.39 The Prez 3.54 David Chan 3.09 Ben Burns 1.80 Lee Kostroski 1.42 Ted Sevransky 1.12 Larry Ness 1.05 Dave Malinsky 0.58 Scott Rickenbach (0.66) Sean Murphy (2.32) Marc Lawrence (2.96) Nick Parsons (5.86) Matt Fargo (6.40) Steve Merril (12.22) |
payday000 | 7 |
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My data did not post properly. I'll try again...
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payday000 | 7 |
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Guaranteed picks cost you nothing if you lose. (Obviously they don't refund the amount you bet -- only the cost of the pick). These numbers are ONLY the MLB picks from all 15 Experts in the 16 days since April 17. I assume only a flat one-unit bet on all picks,
Keep in mind, I haven't deducted the cost of their picks. I can email you the Excel file my calculations if you like.. |
payday000 | 7 |
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