A rematch of the Super Bowl from two seasons ago highlights NFL Week 11 Sunday. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for a quartet of contests, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -3.5; Move: -4
Defending Super Bowl champion New England followed its first loss of the season with a bye week, so Bill Belichick’s squad is rested for this 4:25 p.m. ET Kickoff. In Week 9, the Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) fell to Baltimore 37-20 as 3-point road faves, halting a 13-game win streak (10-3 ATS) dating to last December.
Philadelphia is coming out of its bye week, too, after winning two in a row SU and ATS to climb back above .500. The Eagles (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) topped Chicago 22-14 as a 5-point home favorite in Week 9.
The last time these two teams met in a meaningful game was in Super Bowl 52, which the Eagles won 41-33.
“This will be the biggest game of the afternoon, because everything from the morning will flow into Patriots,” Shelton said of New England parlay action running into this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. And pointspread betting is lopsided, too. “Money is 20/1 on the Patriots, ticket count is 7/1, and New England is No. 1 in spread tickets. This is already a six-figure decision.”
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5
Lamar Jackson and his video-game elusiveness have Baltimore atop the AFC North, riding a five-game SU and three game ATS win streak. After handing New England its first loss, the Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) rumbled to a 49-13 victory over Cincinnati as 10.5-point road favorites.
DeShaun Watson has Houston leading the AFC South, though it’s a tight race, with all four teams within two games of each other. The Texans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) had a bye in Week 10, after breezing by Jacksonville 26-3 catching 1 point on the road in Week 9.
The line climbed from Ravens -3.5 Friday to -4.5 Saturday at The Mirage and other MGM books.
“There’s some sharp play on this game, on the Ravens, and I’m afraid the public is gonna be on the Ravens, too,” Shelton said. “Money and tickets are both about 2.5/1 on the Ravens.”
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -13.5; Move: -11.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -10
San Francisco (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) was the last team to fall from the unbeaten ranks, lasting until the Monday night game in Week 10. The 49ers (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) rallied from a 21-10 deficit against Seattle, but fell short in overtime 27-24 laying 6.5 points at home.
Rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie QB Kyler Murray have Arizona competing well on almost a weekly basis. In Week 10, the Cardinals (3-6-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) fell at Tampa Bay 30-27, but cashed as 5.5-point pups and are tied with Green Bay for the NFL’s best ATS record.
“Ticket count is in favor of the ‘dog, but not huge, and about 3/1 money on the Cardinals, including a little sharp money,” Shelton said of pointspread action on a 4:05 p.m. ET start. “It’s really possible we’ll need San Francisco. The public thinks Arizona is a live ‘dog.”
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions – Open: -6.5; Move: None
Dallas is looking to bounce back in this 1 p.m. ET start, following a tough Week 10 loss at home. The Cowboys (5-4 SU and ATS) trailed most of the way against Minnesota, losing 28-24 as 3.5-point home favorites.
For the second straight week, Detroit won’t have quarterback Matt Stafford (hip/back) under center. The Lions (3-5-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) lost to Chicago 20-13 getting 6 points on the road last week.
The Stafford news wasn’t official until Friday, so MGM books didn’t put the line up until then, but that didn’t slow the rush of Dallas money.
“This game has the least amount of tickets, but it’s all Cowboys,” Shelton said. “Pointspread money right now is like $100,000 on the Cowboys to $1,000 on the Lions, and tickets are 10/1 Cowboys.”
Although the number is still Dallas -6.5, the price on that is -125, so -7 could be coming before kickoff.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
