Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Heiskanen Steps up Offensively in Colorado

Prop bet #1: Zeros for Zacha

Boston Bruins center Pavel Zacha skated on the third line and not with star David Pastrnak during Thursday’s practice. Zacha and Pastrnak were on the ice for a rock-solid 3.92 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five during the regular season, and Zacha was on for just 1.65 when he wasn’t jumping the boards with the high-scoring winger.

Zacha also doesn’t skate with the No. 1 power-play unit, and I expect the top-five having a longer leash on the PP considering this is a potential elimination game. Additionally, Zacha has only been on the ice for seven goals all postseason, and his 46.3 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 is the third-lowest among Boston forwards.

If there wasn't any more reason to fade Zacha, the Florida Panthers have held the Bruins to two goals or fewer in four straight games while dominating with a 59.4 CF% at 5-on-5 in this series.

Pavel Zacha prop: Under 0.5 points (-135 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Shot uptick for Ekblad

There’s been a notable jump in shots (12) and attempts (22) for Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad over the last four games, and he’s posted a high-end 63.0 CF% at five-on-five throughout the series. The Boston Bruins have also allowed an average of 35 shots per game across the past five games.

Ekblad missed 13 of the final 17 regular season contests, and I attribute his six shots on 16 attempts in the first six playoff games to him shaking off some rust. I also value Ekblad's odds because he primarily lines up with one of the top two Florida lines. 

Aaron Ekblad prop: Over 1.5 shots (-130 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Hit with Heiskanen

Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen ranks third in shots (30) and second in attempts (75) on the club through 12 postseason games, and he only registered a single shot on eight attempts in Game 5 while logging a game-high 27:58 of ice time. I expect him to convert more of his attempts into shots and log huge minutes again in Game 6.

The Stars' second-defense pairing of Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell is being utilized as the primary matchup against Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon at five-on-five. Fewer minutes opposite MacKinnon is a plus because he’s a nightmare matchup, boasting a 65.0 CF% at 5-on-5 for the series.

Heiskanen quarterbacks the No. 1 power-play unit and has cleared this total in seven of 12 playoff games, including three of five in Round 2.

Miro Heiskanen prop: Over 2.5 shots (+110 at BET99)