The Eastern Conference Finals tips off Tuesday at TD Garden where the Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers. Boston has been the best team in the NBA all season and was expected to be here, but Indiana is a surprise after upsetting the Knicks in seven games.
The Pacers have the firepower to put up points against anybody and my NBA picks see their offensive success continuing. However, I don't expect them to beat the well-rested Celtics on the road and my same-game-parlay for the Pacers vs. Celtics on Tuesday, May 21, takes both angles into account.
Pacers vs Celtics parlay picks May 21
- Over 221.5
- McConnell Over 4.5 assists
- Nesmith Over 9.5 points
- Celtics ML
(+525 at bet365)
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Best Pacers vs Celtics parlay picks for Tuesday
NBA parlay pick
Over 221.5
T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 assists
Aaron Nesmith Over 9.5 points
Celtics moneyline
With their highly efficient offense, poor defense, and blazing-fast pace, the Indiana Pacers have been in tons of shootouts this season.
Granted, playoff basketball typically sees a slower pace and more defensive intensity than the regular season but that's already baked into the odds. Considering we're seeing a massive adjustment from the O/U numbers we saw between these teams during the regular (the last four meetings saw totals above 245), today's total of 221.5 looks like too much of an adjustment. Especially when you keep in mind that they respectively combined for 253, 264, 219, 234, and 259 points in five regular-season meetings.
While the Boston Celtics have a stingy defense and prefer a below-average pace, we saw the Pacers push pace and score against a usually slow and defensively-focused Knicks squad in the last round. Indy has gone Over its team total in nine of its last 12 games and should be able to put up points tonight — especially against a Boston squad still missing its top rim protector in Kristaps Porzingis. That said, they'll also give up plenty of buckets to a Celtics squad that is the only team in the NBA with a more efficient offense than Indiana.
T.J. McConnell has been Indiana's best bench player, dropping at least five dimes in four of the last six games. He also had 5+ assists in three of four regular-season clashes with Boston.
Aaron Nesmith is coming off a 19-point performance against the Knicks in Game 7, and while he won't shoot 100% from the field again, he should eclipse his modest points total in what I expect to be a high-scoring contest. He has dropped 14+ points in three of his last four games against the Celtics and erupted for 26 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists in their last meeting.
I don't see an edge with backing the Celtics on the spread at -10, but I do like them to win outright. This has been the most dominant team in the NBA and they've lost just six times at home all season while boasting an incredible +14.6 scoring margin. They are installed at -500 on the ML but adding it to this SGP when we're already backing a pair of Pacers to have good games gives us a nice payout.
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