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NCAA WEEK 8 LEANS AND PLAYS

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Posted: #1
Punching these plays in early:

Bama -28 vs Arkansas
Arkansas can't throw it, and Bama should contain their run.  This will be a blowout.

Buffalo -20.5 vs UMASS
UMASS got their win last week vs. the only team in the MAC worse than them.  Buffalo is playing well, albeit vs MAC bottom feeders, luckily, that is what UMASS is.  Another 28+ win for the Bulls.

SMU +3.5 @ Memphis
SMU coming in off a bye, and I will take the better team getting points.  SMU has played a much tougher schedule, and Memphis is struggling against mid-level (at best) teams.

All of those will be 16.5 units to win 15 units each.

A few more games I either played smaller or are leans....


Virginia -2.5 vs Duke (5.5/5.0)

Texas Tech/WVU OV 57.0 (5.5/5.0)

USC +3 (-105) @ Notre Dame (5.5/5.0)

Auburn +13.5 @ Texas A&M (5.5/5.0)

Cleveland (NFL) +10.5 (-120) @ Green Bay (5.5/5.0)

Leans....

Syracuse +7.5 @ Georgia Tech
Ball State -19.5 @ Western Michigan
Col State/Wyoming OV 66.5
Auburn/TXAM OV 72
UCLA +6 @ Stanford
Indiana/Michigan OV 67
LSU -8
Oregon TT ???  (Anything at 56 or lower is probably a play)


Any thoughts anyone??

Good luck...............



bk
 
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Posted: #2
Been laying low on the teasers and parlays, but going to add one this week.  Been utilizing 5d's ability to leave spots open.  I like this feature for teasers, as it doesn't force you to make plays when you aren't sure.  Key is to be patient, and only add games you are confident in.  I have an 8 team 13.5 teaser open (ties lose), with four spots filled, and four open.  Pays +200.  Here are the four:

Texas Tech/WVU OV 43.5
Indiana/Michigan OV 53.5
Arkansas/Alabama OV 35.0
Cleveland Browns +25

Playing that for 3 units to win 6.


Also playing one Div 1-AA game on the school I went to.

SIU +8 vs NDSU.  Salukis were getting 9, when I hit submit, the line dropped!!  WTF!!!  SIU has three losses on the year, to Illinois, Eastern Illinois, and Youngstown St.  The latter of those three are both solid I-AA schools.  NDSU is no doubt talented, but on the road laying over 1TD to a decent program, I will take my chances.  Small wager, as I don't know much about these teams and match ups, but thought it might be fun, since I went to SIU (a long time ago).

Southern Illinois +8 (-120) 3 units to win 2.5.


Haven't added anything else yet, but will be looking closely at the team totals when they come out.  Specifically Oregon and LSU.  Ole Miss is really banged up on D, so LSU TT might be worth a look.

bk
 
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Posted: #3
Going to add one play for tonight.

UCF +14.5 (5.5/5.0)

I think they are balanced enough to keep this relatively close.  Louisville is good, no doubt, but just don't see them dominating too many games on both sides outside of when they play a few bottom feeders.  This probably would be a no play had the line not moved north of 14.

UCF also had a bye last week and had five extra days to prepare.  Not a huge deal, but important that they aren't coming in on a short week (not that Louisville is).  


Good luck................. 


bk
 
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Posted: #4
Good luck big fella. 
 
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Posted: #5
Thanks DavidN!  


That is the link to my Week 6 results.  Did not post any week 7 plays really, as I was out of town and the few posts I made were by phone, and pretty much took the weekend off aside from a few small wagers.

YTD:

NCAAF (straight bets on sides and totals)
26-25 (-3.3 units)

NCAAF/NFL (parlays)
2-6 (-29 units) <--- my Achilles heal so far this year.


I should also add.  My base wager for football is usually 4-5 units.  Sometimes I will add smaller wagers, depends.  Normally I'd set my base unit at 1, obviously.  The reason I did not is because I also post in the soccer forum, but my soccer wagers are relatively smaller than football, generally speaking.  So to keep things consistent, I just upped by base unit for football.  

So any 10 unit or 15 unit plays are really just about 2x or 3x my base wager in football.  

Not that anyone cares.  



bk


 
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Posted: #6
Best of luck....one teaser play I am all-in on saturday is the OVER in Army at 1pm.

it will be in close to half time.
 
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Posted: #7
Adding one play for tonight.  After thinking it over, and reading some info here, I like the UNDER 55.5 tonight.  Both teams run enough plays, and in general go on longer drives as opposed to quick strike scoring.  I think the defense and tempo should play to the under.

UCF/LOUISVILLE UN 55.5 (5.5/5.0)

Good luck all..............


bk
 
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Posted: #8
Down -0.5 units on the night.  Too many TD's to even have the under come close.  

Laying off the TT's for tomorrow for now.  I figured Oregon would open up around 56, and not confident enough they'll get over it, so passing.   Also, LSU at 35 is a little too high.  Passing on that too.

Staying pat for now.  But looking........................
 
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Posted: #9
(2H)
Texas Tech -2.5 (-125) (6.25/5.00)

Hate laying that juice, but that's the line they gave me.

WVU looks like stanky doo doo.  

bk
 
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Posted: #10
Ducks TT dropped to 55.5, so hit it up for 5 units.

Oregon TT OV 55.5 (5.5/5.0)




bk
 
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Posted: #11
Bama -28 vs Arkansas  +15 units

Buffalo -20.5 vs UMASS  +15 units

SMU +3.5 @ Memphis  +15 units

Virginia -2.5 vs Duke (5.5/5.0)  -5.5 units

Texas Tech/WVU OV 57.0 (5.5/5.0)  +5 units

USC +3 (-105) @ Notre Dame (5.25/5.0) -5.25 units

Auburn +13.5 @ Texas A&M (5.5/5.0)  +5 units

Southern Illinois +8 (-120) 3 units to win 2.5  -3 units

UCF +14.5 (5.5/5.0)  +5 units

UCF/LOUISVILLE UN 55.5 (5.5/5.0)  -5.5 units

(2H)
Texas Tech -2.5 (-125) (6.25/5.00)  +5 units

Oregon TT OV 55.5 (5.5/5.0)  +5 units



8-4 on the day posted plays!!  Even better, hit all 3 big plays!! +45.75 units.

YTD NCAAF (straight bets, sides and totals)

34 - 29 (+42.45 units)

YTD NCAAF/NFL PARLAYS

2 - 6 (-29 units)

This 8 teamer is still active.  3 of 8 are in, Browns Sunday, then 4 slots to fill.

Texas Tech / WVU OV 43.5
Indiana / Michigan OV 53.5
Arkansas/Alabama OV 35.0
Cleveland Browns +25



 
 
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Posted: #12
This 8 teamer is still active.  3 of 8 are in, Browns Sunday, then 4 slots to fill.

Texas Tech / WVU OV 43.5
Indiana / Michigan OV 53.5
Arkansas/Alabama OV 35.0
Cleveland Browns +25


I got the same game pending in a 4 teamer myself

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