Had a great day on Saturday - we are 9-1. Today - i'm liking vandy - let's look at some numbers:
Nc st 51 81 69 71 (140)
6.5 Vandy 69 17 31 42 (73)
This what I call a 1 A/3 situation - Nc st is only better in total offfense. Typically the team that has the best sagarin composite wins out and covers. Percentage wise the data resides on the side of Vandy. I'm taking vandy - good luck all.
Yesterday we hit vatech and ohio - I flubbed it up on tt - record sits at 5-1. Let's look at some numbers for Navy and az st. (best game on the board in my opinion):
Navy 79 57 74 91
14.5 Azst 31 26 22 37
Az st opened up as a 14.5 fav. it's hovering around 14. As you can see az st is better than navy in every category (lower the better). Based on history of bowl games (since 2009) when you have what I call a 0/4 scenario and the line is in double digits - the favorite usually covers - this was the scenario with Utah st and toledo. Anyways, i'm riding the pony and going with az st.
The other games - I like Rice but this is a be careful game - so don't go crazy. The games between tcu/mich st and wva/Syracuse - these are what I call 3/ 1 B situations Mich st and Syracuse are only better in total defense; When the lines are small in this scenario - this indicates the games should be close - the question - how close? This is where we need to increase our margin of error - do a teaser between mich st and Syracuse, or match them up with az st. or do them all. The other game - I believe the starting qb is not playing - simply a lean - oreg. st. Good luck all.
3-0 after hitting Sjose st. It's all about the outcomes. Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:
Ohio 43 63 97 144 (241)
6.5 Monroe 34 73 62 86 (148)
the data above reflects ranks for - Total off. Total Def. Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength. The numbers in ( ) are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D. What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning ohio is only better in 1 category, Total defense. If you have read my posts - this is a similar situation as yesterdays game - however, there are a couple of things that stand out 1. The spread on the game is 6.5 2. Ohio has a composite of 241. 3. Monroe has a composite of 148. Yesterdays game - the composite was bad but not this bad. When the composites of these teams are this high - and vegas has ohio only at 6.5 - often you will see the underdog keep it close. In this pattern - history is on the side of Ohio. I'm going with Ohio and the points.
Also, I like Va tech - will try to comeback later for minn/tt.
Good luck all.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Had a great day on Saturday - we are 9-1. Today - i'm liking vandy - let's look at some numbers:
Nc st 51 81 69 71 (140)
6.5 Vandy 69 17 31 42 (73)
This what I call a 1 A/3 situation - Nc st is only better in total offfense. Typically the team that has the best sagarin composite wins out and covers. Percentage wise the data resides on the side of Vandy. I'm taking vandy - good luck all.
Yesterday we hit vatech and ohio - I flubbed it up on tt - record sits at 5-1. Let's look at some numbers for Navy and az st. (best game on the board in my opinion):
Navy 79 57 74 91
14.5 Azst 31 26 22 37
Az st opened up as a 14.5 fav. it's hovering around 14. As you can see az st is better than navy in every category (lower the better). Based on history of bowl games (since 2009) when you have what I call a 0/4 scenario and the line is in double digits - the favorite usually covers - this was the scenario with Utah st and toledo. Anyways, i'm riding the pony and going with az st.
The other games - I like Rice but this is a be careful game - so don't go crazy. The games between tcu/mich st and wva/Syracuse - these are what I call 3/ 1 B situations Mich st and Syracuse are only better in total defense; When the lines are small in this scenario - this indicates the games should be close - the question - how close? This is where we need to increase our margin of error - do a teaser between mich st and Syracuse, or match them up with az st. or do them all. The other game - I believe the starting qb is not playing - simply a lean - oreg. st. Good luck all.
3-0 after hitting Sjose st. It's all about the outcomes. Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:
Ohio 43 63 97 144 (241)
6.5 Monroe 34 73 62 86 (148)
the data above reflects ranks for - Total off. Total Def. Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength. The numbers in ( ) are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D. What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning ohio is only better in 1 category, Total defense. If you have read my posts - this is a similar situation as yesterdays game - however, there are a couple of things that stand out 1. The spread on the game is 6.5 2. Ohio has a composite of 241. 3. Monroe has a composite of 148. Yesterdays game - the composite was bad but not this bad. When the composites of these teams are this high - and vegas has ohio only at 6.5 - often you will see the underdog keep it close. In this pattern - history is on the side of Ohio. I'm going with Ohio and the points.
Also, I like Va tech - will try to comeback later for minn/tt.
I was all set to lay action on Vandy as well. They finished hot, and they have a solid D secondary to match up against a talented State QB who has talented receivers. It's basically a Vandy home game, PLUS you have to factor that O'Brien was fired and an interim head coach (Bible), who likely won't even be retained, is coaching NC St today. He may have an "F-it, what do I have to lose approach." WKU comes to mind as an example of an interim coach making an incredibly stupid "shoot for the moon" decision.
However, line has move to NC St +7.5. I'm not buying it down.....for what, a potential push? I may watch a series or two (or entire first half), see how the boys are playing, and then make a decision about either a live bet or 2d half bet.
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I was all set to lay action on Vandy as well. They finished hot, and they have a solid D secondary to match up against a talented State QB who has talented receivers. It's basically a Vandy home game, PLUS you have to factor that O'Brien was fired and an interim head coach (Bible), who likely won't even be retained, is coaching NC St today. He may have an "F-it, what do I have to lose approach." WKU comes to mind as an example of an interim coach making an incredibly stupid "shoot for the moon" decision.
However, line has move to NC St +7.5. I'm not buying it down.....for what, a potential push? I may watch a series or two (or entire first half), see how the boys are playing, and then make a decision about either a live bet or 2d half bet.
James - good points - hopefully it comes down to vandy playing harder and better than state. I typically don't get hung up on these coaching changes - only a Qb change makes me - re- think the play. Hopefully we can pocket a few bucks today.
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Viet - good luck to you as well.
James - good points - hopefully it comes down to vandy playing harder and better than state. I typically don't get hung up on these coaching changes - only a Qb change makes me - re- think the play. Hopefully we can pocket a few bucks today.
Hey Buddah - Really like your logic and see the value in it. In looking at this I took Vandy and wanted your perspective on the following:
Gtech - better D and Schedule but lacks overall composite of Sangarin and....makes me like Gtech b/c it is -7.5 on my line vs -7 where i would favor points...thoughts?
IA state / Tulsa - only thing IA state has is better Sangarin and better composite, but Tulsa has points....Tulsa also was beaten by IA state earlier in the year ---- do you like IA state based on this?
Finally LSU / Clemson - Clemson has better Off and Schedule but Sangarin favors LSU, I would think to take the Sangarin composite with a spread like this and grab LSU at -5.5....thoughts?
Curious to continue learning from your logic. Look forward to hearing from you.
Thanks,
Bankshaft
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Hey Buddah - Really like your logic and see the value in it. In looking at this I took Vandy and wanted your perspective on the following:
Gtech - better D and Schedule but lacks overall composite of Sangarin and....makes me like Gtech b/c it is -7.5 on my line vs -7 where i would favor points...thoughts?
IA state / Tulsa - only thing IA state has is better Sangarin and better composite, but Tulsa has points....Tulsa also was beaten by IA state earlier in the year ---- do you like IA state based on this?
Finally LSU / Clemson - Clemson has better Off and Schedule but Sangarin favors LSU, I would think to take the Sangarin composite with a spread like this and grab LSU at -5.5....thoughts?
Curious to continue learning from your logic. Look forward to hearing from you.
Bank shaft - I didn't realize the gat tech game started at 2 - my thoughts on ga tech - I like Ga tech in this one - kinda similar to Minn/TT, however, with the qb change and line all over the place my - thoughts are be careful more opportunities await. small play on ga tech.
Not sure about the spread comment 7.5 - 7 - in this scenario your not always looking at the composite or you would take usc handsdown. Tread carefully with ga tech.
IA st and Tulsa - that's another becareful situation - the line oped up at +1 for Tulsa - that line can be confusing - i'm going with Tulsa but again kinda small. i'll comeback and explain lsu/clem later. glad to see your looking at data.
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Bank shaft - I didn't realize the gat tech game started at 2 - my thoughts on ga tech - I like Ga tech in this one - kinda similar to Minn/TT, however, with the qb change and line all over the place my - thoughts are be careful more opportunities await. small play on ga tech.
Not sure about the spread comment 7.5 - 7 - in this scenario your not always looking at the composite or you would take usc handsdown. Tread carefully with ga tech.
IA st and Tulsa - that's another becareful situation - the line oped up at +1 for Tulsa - that line can be confusing - i'm going with Tulsa but again kinda small. i'll comeback and explain lsu/clem later. glad to see your looking at data.
Looking at your picks for these two games, it seems that the stats and the lines are almost identical, and yet your choice for Ohio seems contrary to your selection of SJSt. . Your thoughts?
thanks
Ohio 43 63 97 144 (241)
6.5 Monroe 34 73 62 86 (148)
the data above reflects ranks for - Total off. Total Def. Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength. The numbers in ( ) are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D. What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning ohio is only better in 1 category, Total defense. If you have read my posts - this is a similar situation as yesterdays game - however, there are a couple of things that stand out 1. The spread on the game is 6.5 2. Ohio has a composite of 241. 3. Monroe has a composite of 148. Yesterdays game - the composite was bad but not this bad. When the composites of these teams are this high - and vegas has ohio only at 6.5 - often you will see the underdog keep it close. In this pattern - history is on the side of Ohio. I'm going with Ohio and the points.
Also, I like Va tech - will try to comeback later for minn/tt.
2-0 after cmich came thru. Let's look at some numbers and discuss:
Bowlgn 87 7 76 136 (212)
7.5 Sjosest 30 28 30 75 (105)
the data above reflects ranks for - Total off. Total Def. Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength. The numbers in ( ) are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D. What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning BG is only better in Total def. Based on bowl games in the past typically the 1 B team wins or covers these games (there's been 24 games played since 2009 with this similar scenario - different lines but these scenarios 2 ties, 15 1 B teams that covered or won outright and 7 favorites that have won. Percentage wise you would think it's best to go with BG, however, the main reason for going with Sjosest. - If the 1 B team has a composite in the 200's which BG does - take the 3 team - thus i'm on Sjose St.
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Buddah
Looking at your picks for these two games, it seems that the stats and the lines are almost identical, and yet your choice for Ohio seems contrary to your selection of SJSt. . Your thoughts?
thanks
Ohio 43 63 97 144 (241)
6.5 Monroe 34 73 62 86 (148)
the data above reflects ranks for - Total off. Total Def. Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength. The numbers in ( ) are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D. What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning ohio is only better in 1 category, Total defense. If you have read my posts - this is a similar situation as yesterdays game - however, there are a couple of things that stand out 1. The spread on the game is 6.5 2. Ohio has a composite of 241. 3. Monroe has a composite of 148. Yesterdays game - the composite was bad but not this bad. When the composites of these teams are this high - and vegas has ohio only at 6.5 - often you will see the underdog keep it close. In this pattern - history is on the side of Ohio. I'm going with Ohio and the points.
Also, I like Va tech - will try to comeback later for minn/tt.
2-0 after cmich came thru. Let's look at some numbers and discuss:
Bowlgn 87 7 76 136 (212)
7.5 Sjosest 30 28 30 75 (105)
the data above reflects ranks for - Total off. Total Def. Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength. The numbers in ( ) are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D. What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning BG is only better in Total def. Based on bowl games in the past typically the 1 B team wins or covers these games (there's been 24 games played since 2009 with this similar scenario - different lines but these scenarios 2 ties, 15 1 B teams that covered or won outright and 7 favorites that have won. Percentage wise you would think it's best to go with BG, however, the main reason for going with Sjosest. - If the 1 B team has a composite in the 200's which BG does - take the 3 team - thus i'm on Sjose St.
Grateful - this system takes a lot of time - to understand the quirks - the rationale for the difference in selction has to do with the composites of the sagarin rank and sched. strength along with the line. If you collect the data and record the results eventually you will pick up on the quirks and patterns and recognize the situations when to take one team vice the other.
Macwestie - you too.
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Grateful - this system takes a lot of time - to understand the quirks - the rationale for the difference in selction has to do with the composites of the sagarin rank and sched. strength along with the line. If you collect the data and record the results eventually you will pick up on the quirks and patterns and recognize the situations when to take one team vice the other.
grate - not identical - the line was 6.5 for ulm and 7.5 for sanjose st. then once again - looking at the composites - the situations were similar but the composites were not identical - a large composite for ohio and only a 6.5 favorite for ulm - this led to deciding on ohio.
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grate - not identical - the line was 6.5 for ulm and 7.5 for sanjose st. then once again - looking at the composites - the situations were similar but the composites were not identical - a large composite for ohio and only a 6.5 favorite for ulm - this led to deciding on ohio.
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