I would liked to have gotten this up a day or two sooner, but it's been another very busy week for me.
I have been saying since before the start of the season that this would be the week to fade Bama (although I think next week may also present an opportunity to do so) particualrly if they were coming off of back-to-back wins over Arky and Florida which is indeed the case.
But anyone who had the Gamecocks like I did a couple of weeks ago against Auburn watched dumbass Spurrier blow the game, the cover and my money in one fell swoop. Because of that debacle I don't feel I can trust Spurrier with my money in a game I'm certain he will lose. The only question for me is whether South Carolina can keep it within a TD or not.
I think that everybody knows that Saban runs a very complex NFL style 3-4 defense. For that reason it takes time for younger inexperienced guys to get comfortable in the system. I said in my preseason writeup that Bama's defense is more talented than last year's version, and would ultimately be better. Even though Bama's defense has been steller in the red-zone thus far (surrendering 2 TDs and forcing 5 turnovers), it's still a bit early to make a definitive judgement on that. I will say, however, that this defense is really hitting their stride right now. They are getting more comfortable by the week in Saban's scheme which is allowing the defense to play much faster as a whole. Their performance against a superbly talented Florida team last week was very impressive.
I also told you that the sleeper player to watch this year was LBer Courtney Upshaw. Upshaw sprained his ankle in the first game versus San Jose State, which severely limited his playing time for the first few weeks. But he has been healthy for the last 2 games, and was an absolute terror to the Razorback and Gators offenses . In fact he earned SEC defensive player of the week honors last week. Watch for him to distinguish and seperate himself from the pack the remainder of the season.
Ultimately I think the cover will depend on QB Greg McElroy. If he gift wraps 21 points for USC like he did in the Arkansas game, then USC has a chance to be in the game in the 4th quarter. McElroy has now gone two straight games without completing a single pass of more than 10 yards downfield. His downfield passing has simply been atrocious. The impressive stats that he has amassed thus far is really the product of all the talent around him.
Because of that, all he really has to do is not screw things up by turning the ball over. He didn't do that in the first half of the Arky game. So if you think he will throw multiple intereceptions with wide open receivers like he did in the Arkansas game, then take the points. If you think he will protect the ball and limit his mistakes, then Bama will probably cruise to a double digit win.
South Carolina is primarily a vertical passing offense that likes to keep defenses honest by running Lattimore between the tackles. Bama's defense is use to tackling Ingram, Richardson and Lacey in practice so I think they believe they can stop Lattimore in their base and nickle packages.
I really think that Spurrier will try to neutralize Bama's strength up front by utilizing some quick hitches and some quick screens and try to get big WR Alshon Jeffrey in space with an Alabama secondary that struggled with their tackling in the early part of the season.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama's offense looks bland and unimaginative compared to Auburn's tricky, misdirection attack that ran all over them a couple of weeks ago. That makes Bama much easier to prepare for than Auburn. But just because you know what Alabama is going to do doesn't mean you'll be able to stop it.
Everybody knows what DC Ellis Johnson will try to do. He will try to take away the running game and the underneath routes, and make McElroy beat them with his non-existent downfield passing. If they can sustain that for 4 quarters and get some help from their offense, then they have a chance to take Bama down to the wire.
I will add that Bama has had an excellent and very focused week of practice. They will be all business tomorrow. I will also say that Bama is anticipating that Spurrier will attempt multiple trick plays. If Bama's defense is ready for it and stays disciplined, they should be able to weather the trick-play storm.
Ultimately however, I don't have much faith that South Carolina's offense will be able to generate many points against a Bama defense that is growing stronger and more confident by the week. That means the only way I think South Carolina will have a chance in this game is for Bama to turn the ball over multiple times. That normally doesn't happen though.
For those people who like South Carolina in this game, I would highly recommend you play them 1st half only. That is their best chance of covering IMO. I think Bama will own the 2nd half like they always do, so stay away from Bama's strength. In the end I think Bama will depart Columbia with something like a 23-13 type of victory.
BOL to all!!!
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