NJPorky 2H College Football System Tightener

I did a lot of number crunching on Porky's 2H college football system.  And I have what I feel should be an acceptable system.  You can tell me what you think. 

Basically, we will play sides only and the system is exactly how Porky originated it.  I crunched the system using 10-pt, 15-pt and 21-pt middles.  I also back-tested all 360+ games.  Here are my findings.

Begin checking the middle.  If it is a 10 point middle or more, determine the play-on team that will cause the middle to miss.

1.  For 21-pt middle or more, play on the road team or pre-game favorite or play against any pre-game dog, otherwise no play.
2.  If a 15-pt middle or more, play on the road team or pre-game favorite and play against home dogs, otherwise no play.
3.  If a 10-pt middle or more, play on road favorites and against home dogs, otherwsie no play.
4.  If a 10-pt middle does not apply, then there is no play.

I will be happy to answer questions, but it should be relatively simple to apply.  Start with the highest middle first and work downward.  Here are the results for the season that qualified with at least 10-pt middle.  (I hope this shows up).

That sure backfired.  Anyway.... Here's the link... download the results...

https://home.comcast.net/~usakangy/documents/Porky-system-doc-stats.doc

Good work kangy.

BigIronDawg! 

I will be watching with excitement this Saturday.  If I play anything this week, it will be at the 15 or 21-point level for small bucks.

So, when you're taking about favorites and dogs, are you talking about the game favorites or the 2H favorites?  (or just with the game and 2H favorites are the same?)

When I refer to favorites and dogs, it is the game favorites and game dogs, NOT the 2H favorites or dogs.  But just wanted to re-iterate, that in over 99.5% of all the 360+ games played so far, the game favorite is the 2H favorite, if it is not a PK.  Usually the 2H lines are about half the original line when the game is near where it should be at halftime.  Other times, when one team is blowing another out, the game favorite might be listed as a PK or -1/2.  On two occassions was the 2H line greater than that of the game line.  I think both of those favorites ended up losing 2H straight up.

JLuke,
Lets assume team A is a 7 point favorite for game and that team is leading by 3 points at the half.  For the 2H, team A will need to win by 4 points to cover the original game spread.  But if the 2H spread says team A is the favorite by 3 points, then for team A to win the 2H bet, it would have to win the game by at least 6 points (what I call an in-game pointspread) to cover the 2H spread.  The difference between the game spread and the in-game spread is the middle.  In this case the middle is 1 point.

Lets assume that team A is now losing at the half by 6 points.  For the 2H, team A will now have to win the 2H by 13 to cover the game spread.  If the 2H line is team A favored by 4 points (which is usually half of the original game spread line), then the effective in-game spread becomes team A a dog by 2 points.  The difference between the game spread (favorite of 7) and the in-game spread (dog of 2) is now 9 points.  That is your middle. 

We look for middles as described at the beginning of my post.  According to the system, start with the higher middle and apply the rules in order as I have stated.

To determine the play-on team, we will select the side that will cause the final game line to NOT appear within the middle area.  The larger the middle (or difference), the easier it becomes for one particular team (based on its 1H performance) to cause the middle to miss.  This team will be our play-on team. 

In the second example, ask yourself... is it easier for team A to win the 2H by 13, thus covering the game spread as a 7-pt favorite OR for team B to play harder and either win 2H outright or lose by no more than 4? 

Porky explains it a lot better in one of his original posts and provides a slew of examples.  Find one of Porky's postings, click on his image and from his MySpace area, you can browse through his original postings. 


 

gotcha 

Unfortunately, I'm going to be out of town with the in-laws this weekend, so I won't be able to help post system plays.   

I might have some internet access, though (we'll be out in the middle of freakin' nowhere), so if I do, I'll be trying to watch closely and tail as much as possible. 

WOW !! GREAT WORK BRO !! MUST HAVE TAKEN YOU A LONG TIME ?? THOSE PERCENTAGES IN THE GRID , ARE THOSE PUBLIC BET PERCENTAGES FOR THAT GAME ? APPRECIATE IT !!

Upside, yes it took a long time.  But if it can make everyone extra cash, it would be worth it.  The percentages in the grid are the winning percentages of all plays that qualified out of all NCAA games played thus far. 

For example, using Porky's system, if it is determined that the play-on team is a home dog and the middle is between 15 and 20.5 points, the winning percentage for all home dogs that qualified is only 29% (1-4-2), therefore I advised to go against home dogs falling into that category.

Translation: For a home dog to be the 2H play, most likely that team would be leading at the half.  According to the percentages, the road favorite is more likely to cover the 2H spread, than the home dog. 


All favorites are 10-2 against the 2H spread when there is a 21+-point middle.  We see this scenario a lot when a large favorite has already covered the game spread at the half and usually is a small favorite or PK for the 2H.  Teams in this role, usually cover the small 2H line as well. 

Given time before the weekend, I will grab a subset of all scenarios and determine what the records look like if the game line is +/- a certain spread and then what they look like when the 2H line is +/- a certain spread.  I doubt I will get the time to do all my research, but I wanted to keep the system down to a smaller set of plays, yet simple enough to understand and apply on your own..

anyone know how porkys system did last week in college,  for sides and totals?

You have one AWESOME avatar mate

So do you fader. 

will you be posting a play for the 2h ohio/temple game if there is one?

Yes, if you contact him, please let me know.  I know I'll be on the hook for posting this stuff if Porky and Irondawg don't come back!!! 

I sent a friend request and will see if he could do it. I have been using the excel program for Porkys but I want to be able to see what the appropriate play out of it depending on what middle it falls in. 

usakangy, will you be using your system for the ohio/temple 2h???

Ohio-Temple game line I have from Covers is TEMPLE -4.

We may have a road play fitting into the 15-point middle range, if the score holds at Ohio 10-0 and the 2H line lists Temple -1 or higher.

Road plays using a 15-pt middle are 22-12-2, but road dogs are 10-7.

Road plays using a 21-pt middle are 7-3, but road dogs are only 3-3. 

Let's see what the line is and we can call it...... 
  

temple -2.5