NJPorky 2H College Football System Tightener

0-1 THIS WEEK ACCORDING TO THE SYSTEM. 
BONUS MONEY IF YOU PLAYED THE UNDER 2H

I'm heading out of here, see you all again Thursday night. 

This system needs to be put to rest just like the -105 1st half system matrixx had a year ago

You said under was the play and it won. Great job

Erik, do you put a new system to rest after one loss?  If you read above, it should have been a no play.  However, the road team was a better opportunity than being a doge.  Based on percentages road teams hit higher than dogs.  Chill, man!  It was only one game so far.  Thursday is another day!

heavin, dutmost

Here's the chart philosophy. 

The records in the chart indicate what the YTD totals would be if we only used 10-pt, 15-pt or 21-pt middles, but does not include the individual records in each specific range. 

For example, if playing the 21+ point middle, all home favorites are 6-2.  But playing the 15+ point middle, all home favorites are 9-5.  However, all home favorites that falling within the 15-20.5 point range are just 3-3.  (i.e. take the 9-5 minus the 6-2 from the 21+point window).  This is only a 50% clip. 

In the chart, all favorites are 10-2 using the 21+ point middle, and 21-10-2 using the 15+ middle, and 38-30-3 using the 10+ middle.  Breaking that down, all favorites in the 15-20.5 point range are only 11-8-2 (21-10-2 minus the 10-2), and all teams in the 10-14.5 point range are just 17-20-1 (38-20-3 minus the 21-10-2)

The chart could be misleading depending on interpretation.  I will break that chart down into cumulative if only plying a specific middle (as this one implies) and a second chart (which indicates the records when each scenario falls within the 10-14.5 and 15-20.5 ranges.  You will see quite clearly in that chart, the percentages and the trend which you are looking for. 

Stay tuned for that updated doc.

I have posted an updated doc and additional chart along with some analysis of each range.  I am trying not to be complicated.  It has been suggested by others about moving the middle up to 15 points.  Looking at the YTD stats, it might be an option. 

link

Let's try this one... 

https://home.comcast.net/~usakangy/documents/Porky-system-doc-stats.doc

The game turned after the Ohio attempt to go up 13-0 in the 3rd was botched. 

Madden, I'm not sure what you are asking?  Are you asking what the NCAA records are for a home team favorite if the "home team has a 10-pt middle in their favor"?

Can you explain a little bit about what that statement means?    

 

Im asking when the home team, favorite is losing 10 points on the effective game spread.

example:

rutgers -10 for game

losing 10-0 at half

2H line is: pickem

The effective game line is now pickem for Rutgers.

 

Im curious to see how these scenarios resulted. After researching the NFL, it was 2-2. From personal wagering, I feel I have been successful taking the NCAA home, favorite in this scenario. Although I do not have the numbers to back this method up. It's my belief that home teams play a bigger part in NCAA than NFL. But again thats just my opinion. I dont have numbers to back this.

 

Would appreciate others take on this and research.

Well, most likely after studying the way the lines are created in the 2H.  If Rutgers is -10 for game and losing by 10 at halftime, the 2H line will most likely be Rutgers -5 (about half of 10).  We usually see a pickem, when a favorite is covering the game spread at the half.

However I take it you mean Rutgers is winning at the half, in other words covering the game spread at the half?

I have that for you. 

Interesting find, Madden

29 times has a 2H line been a pickem.

Of those 29 games, 11 have a middle of 10 or more.  The play-on side is 8-1-2

Of those 11 games, there are 10 occurrences where the favorite has covered the game spread by halftime and the 2H line was PK'em, those play-on teams are a total of (8-0-2). 

Wk 1 - RICE -4 up 28-13 at half, win 2H 28-24 (W)
Wk 4 - GAT -7.5 up 21-0 at half, win 2H 17-7 (W)
Wk 6 - Cinc -3 up 16-3 at half, win 2H 17-7 (W)
Wk 6 - TxTech -7 up 38-14 at half, win 2H 20-14 (W)
Wk 6 - FIU -5 up 28-0 at half, win 2H 14-10 (W)
Wk 7 - MichSt -2 up 24-7 at half, tie 2H 13-13 (T)
Wk 7 - BAYL -4.5 up 21-3 at half, win 2H 17-7 (W)
Wk 7 - Psu -6 up 24-7 at half, win 2H 24-0 (W)
Wk 8 - Pitt -3 up 35-14 at half, tie 2H 7-7 (T)

Of those 9 games listed, home favorites are 4-0, road favorites are 3-0-2

There is one occurrence where the home favorite of 10 or more, is covering the spread at the half, the 2H line is a PK.  However, the middle ends up being 8.

Wk 1 - MIZZOU -10 up 31-13 at the half, lose 2H 21-29 (L)

So that is 0-1 for the year. 

There were actually 9 occurrences if you count them again, going 7-0-2.

interesting angle... i can't say you did the most explicit job of explaining the fact that you are simply betting that the middle won't hit... when you say play "on" the team that will cause the middle not to hit, but then you are saying "play on road favorites and play against road dogs", i am sure that is causing a great deal of confusion...

maybe you can find a better way to explain this in terms that will not cause so much apparent ambiguity...

but i am interested to see how this will play out...

Well, put it this way... the "play on" team is the team that causes the middle to miss.  However, if that "play on" team is a team that we'd want to bet against, then I guess, you are correct, we'd be betting on the side to hit the middle.  Either that or make the "play-against" team a no play - that way, it wouldn't jeopardize the integrity of the system (which is to play on the team that will cause the middle to miss in the first place).  Well, said if I say so myself.

I will have another short post tomorrow and simplify this mess again tomorrow.  I will remove the play against scenario because it does take away from the original purpose of the system.  And it will be simple. Until tomorrow night.  See ya!