*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 17 has Arrived

One angle I like to play on in week 17 is under-performing teams playing a game against a divisional opponent in a must win situation. The lesser team usually tends to play spoiler. The Saints are in a must-win to get into the playoffs, everyone knows how dominant they are at home but I think the Bucs keep it close here. They have already played in a loud stadium earlier in the year when they nearly went into Seattle and beat the Seahawks so they won't be overly surprised by the crowd noise. Another thing I like is the fact that the Bucs got smashed 41-0 in New Orleans last year. The Cardinals had something similar happen to them two weeks ago, they got blasted 59-0 in Seattle last year, the rematch ended up in a 17-10 Cardinals win in the same venue. Yes the Cardinals are much better than the Bucs and are playing for something but the Bucs hate the Saints and we have a 11.5 point cushion here. This would be a larger play but I don't want to get burned by the Saints twice in one year.

• Saints are 6-11 ATS as double digit favorites.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Similar reasons for why I like the Browns, Pitt is in a must win being favored by 7 against a divisional opponent. I know the Browns have been shitty as of late but they hate the Steelers. I like the Browns to play spoiler here against a Pitt team that isn't very good to begin with.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

The Patriots have beaten the Bills 19 of the past 20 games, are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 week 17 games, and always win games at home in December. Despite all of this, I'm taking the Bills. I talked about this a bit a few weeks ago prior to the Dolphins-Patriots game but I'll highlight it again. My beloved Pats have won their division 10 of the past 11 years which has started to come at a big price for them. The Dolphins, Jets, and Bills spent their entire off-season game-planning for one team, the New England Patriots. Most people haven't noticed it yet but the Pats have been very un-patriot like within the division this season. They barely beat the Bills in week 1, and have been very lackluster in the Jets and Dolphins games as well. Let's take a closer look.

Week 2: Patriots 13, Jets 10. - Patriots got out-gained 318 to 232, lost the time of possession battle 34:00 to 26:00, and trailed first downs 15-9.

Week 7: Patriots 27, Jets 30. - Patriots got out-gained 295 to 383, lost the time of possession battle 36:20 to 23:40, and trailed first downs 27-21.

Week 9: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17. - Patriots won this game late but were trailing 17-3 at halftime. Patriots got out-gained 301 to 252, lost the time of possession battle 34:59 to 25:01, and trailed first downs 23-19.

Week 15: Patriots 20, Dolphins 24. - Pats won total yardage 453 to 378, won the time of possession 31:21 to 28:39, and won total first downs 29-20, yet lost the game.

Patriots are 3-2 SU winning all 3 games by a total score of 15 points and 1-4 ATS within the division this year. Even though the Pats have still won the division, the rest of the AFC east has made big strides to overtake them. 

Another thing going against the Pats this game is the Bills defensive line. Everyone knows Tom Brady's Achilles heel is a strong Dline and being pressured with just the front 4. Brady can dissect teams that blitz him but teams that can get to him without blitzing tend to disrupt his flow of offense greatly. The Pats this year have lost to the Panthers (#2 in total sacks), barely escaped the Saints on a last second touchdown (#4 in sacks), lost to the Dolphins (#9 in sacks), lost to the Bengals (tied for #11 in sacks), and lost to the Jets (tied for #11 in sacks). The Bills are #1 in the league to this point with 56 total. I see this game going right down to the wire.

LeagueCapper is 4-0 ATS in Patriots games this year

• Bucs +11.5 (4x)
• Browns +7 (6x)
• Bills +7.5 (10x)
• Bucs +23 / Browns +17 / Bills +19 (3x)