137 - 95 @ 59% for +32.5 Units
Tue, 04/05
#1: San Antonio Spurs -3.5
This one is pretty ‘automatic’ from my perspective. Spurs are playing for ‘SOMETHING’ in this one, while the Hawkes are playing for….eh “PRIDE”? Pride is over-rated in this scenario, especially when a team already knows where they will be seeded in the playoffs. Hawks clinched a playoff spot and will face Orlando in the 1st round. Josh Smith is banged up, and even though there are different reports out there, I expect him to sit this one out. The Spurs are actually still fighting for a #1 seed as their 6-game slide, let the Lakers come really close to catching them. I feel that was the wake-up call. Look at the Spurs’ opponents in those 6 games they lost: @ DEN, @ POR, @ MEM, POR, BOS, @HOU. Those are all top teams in this league. Atlanta is not in the same ‘zip-code’ as those squads. Sure Atlanta is coming off a nice 4 game winning streak, prior to their loss @ Houston on Sunday, but here’s who they beat: NJN, @ CLE, ORL, and BOS. Nets and Cavs are cupcakes. They played Orlando in a game that was meaningless for both teams (Orlando is just going through the motions right now) and caught Boston on a b2b coming off a win the night before (Celts are 1-10 in those scenarios this year!). I’m not impressed. This Hawks team is still a squad that has gone 14-20 ATS (11-23 SU) against teams with a winning record. Sure they have ‘revenge’ angle in this game, but are only 13-18 SU/ATS in those scenarios this year, thus I don’t see it being a factor. Spurs are ‘healthy’ again, are coming off a dominating, and more importantly, confidence-building home win, and will be looking to finish their season on a positive run. This is a veteran team, coached by one of the best HC’s in the league. They know the importance of ‘home-court’ in the playoffs, especially in the 2nd round when they’ll face a truly elite team. Spurs are the #5 most efficient team on offense, shoot the highest EFG% of any squad in the league, and don’t turn the ball over. They match-up very well with the Hawks, a team that is 2nd to last in the league in causing TO’s on the defensive end and doesn’t crash the boards on offense. (Josh Smith is their 2nd best offensive rebounder, and even if he plays I’m not concerned.) This is a type of a team that the Spurs truly dominate, as they just run their offense, get quality shots, and outscore their opponents bit by bit on each possession. Teams that can limit Spurs’ possessions (get TO causing defenses) AND improve their own (offensive rebounding) tend to do well against them. Atlanta is not it.
San Antonio is 20-10 ATS this year after a blow-out win, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as road favorites, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Hawks. Hawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 as an underdog in this spread-range, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 against Western Conference opponents, and 4-9 ATS at home when facing a team with a winning road record. I expect a very comfortable Spurs win in this one.
#2: UNDER 206.5 OKC/DEN
Here’s the scenario: Okie City is in 4th place in the West while Denver is in 5th, only 3 games back. These 2 teams play each other twice over the next 4 days (rematch on Friday). What if Nuggets win both of these games? If they do, they’ll have the tie-breaker. Do I expect a ‘playoff-type’ intensity in this one? YOU BETCHA!
From my perspective, these teams are two of the best squads in the league. What makes them ‘elite’? The ability to play defense of course. Each of them made trades this season, which improved each squad on the defensive end. I’ve discussed the impact of these ‘new’ players to each of these teams in my previous posts, so won’t dwell on it here. Bottom line is that both OKC and DEN have the ability to play terrific Defense now, something that neither deemed a priority prior to these moves.
The O/U is 3-10 in Thunder’s last 13 games (2 Unders in a row) and 3-13 in Nuggets’ last 16 (4 Unders in a row). Out of the 2 previous meetings, this is the lowest posted total, 8 points lower than the previous ‘low’, indicating the change in philosophy for both. Looking at the last 3 games for each team, Okie City is holding opponents to 98 ppg, not great but still a couple of points below their season average. Denver is allowing 90 ppg in their last 3, a difference of 13 points from their season averages. Either way, I see both teams really stepping up their ‘intensity’ today. This is a huge game for both squads and I expect max effort in this one, especially on the defensive end.