NBA Picks

Local media reports Garland took part in an active practice on Friday and then a lighter workload Saturday, hinting that the explosive guard could be good to go for Sunday night. In his two games against the Heat, Garland put up point totals of 21 and 27 points on 51.6% shooting. And while he missed the final two meetings with Indiana in the regular season, Garland scored 20 and 24 points against Indiana earlier in the year. Garland will welcome a downhill style of series, scoring a good chunk of his buckets off fastbreaks and drives to the paint. Player projections for Garland all sit around 20 points, ranging from 19.0 to 21.4 for Game 1. Oddsmakers are playing it safer with Garland given his status, with the shooting guard’s Over/Under at 18.5 points. My projection comes out to 20.3 points, which gives us plenty of head room for the Over tonight.

Siakam’s assists numbers were up and down to open the playoffs. He averaged just 2.4 assists versus Milwaukee – after averaging 3.4 in the regular season – but did have four assists in Game 4 when the Bucks defense started to tighten up on the Indiana forward after his outputs of 24, 25, and 28 points in the opening three games. The Cavaliers have a big frontcourt to throw at the 6-foot-8 Siakam and will attempt to pressure the ball out of his hands. In Round 1, his advanced metrics showed 5.2 potential assists per game and that stat jumped to 7.0 over the final two games of the series. Siakam’s assist total sits at 2.5 Over/Under for Game 1 on Sunday while player projections look more like his output from the regular season. Models range from 3.2 to 4.2 assists from Siakam, with my number at 3.75. Given that forecast, his Over 2.5 assists should be priced past -200 today.

If there ever was a time for Jalen Green to snap out of his postseason funk, Sunday would be the spot. Green told the media he has to think less and be aggressive and Game 7 player projections aren’t bailing on the third-year guard – even if the oddsmakers have. Books opened Green’s scoring prop as low as 13.5 points O/U with most books now dealing 14.5 O/U. His scoring forecasts range from 18.7 to 21.6 points and even tempering those numbers for Green’s recent struggles, you end up with a surplus of points against this drastic swing in scoring total (his Game 1 number was 19.5 O/U).

Curry is averaging just over 24 points on less than 47% shooting versus Houston, but has been able to put up bigger scores, with 29, 31 and 36-point performances in this series. Player projections are divided on just how aggressive Steph will be tonight, ranging from 24.9 to 27.9 points. The point prop market isn’t as shy, with sharper books jumping from 26.5 to 27.5 points O/U. When it comes to a guy like Curry, you give him the benefit of the doubt. Not only did he score 29 points in a so-so Game 6 effort, but he’s historically risen to the occasion in Game 7 scenarios. He averages 32.6 points in those crucial contests for his career and the last time he played in a Game 7, he dropped 50 points in a win over Sacramento in 2023.

Taking the Under on a player as hot as VanVleet is never a fun bet to sit through. VanVleet has scored 25, 26 and 29 points the past three games after putting up a collective 34 points in the opening three contests of the series. Those explosions have hiked his scoring prop from a total of 13.5 O/U in Game 1 to a high of 18.5 points for Game 7. Books that did show an 18.5 O/U took money on the Under and the early action has aggressively bought back VanVleet’s scoring efforts, dropping the total as low as 16.5 points for tonight. VanVleet will catch the ire of the Warriors’ defense and I expect Jalen Green to have a better showing for Houston after struggling in this series. Projections aren’t going too crazy on FVV’s output for Game 7 either, ranging from 13.8 to 18.3 with my number coming out to just north of 16 points.

If there ever was a time for Jalen Green to snap out of his postseason funk, Sunday would be the spot. Green told the media he has to think less and be aggressive and Game 7 player projections aren’t bailing on the third-year guard – even if the oddsmakers have. Books opened Green’s scoring prop as low as 13.5 points O/U with most books now dealing 14.5 O/U. His scoring forecasts range from 18.7 to 21.6 points and even tempering those numbers for Green’s recent struggles, you end up with a surplus of points against this drastic swing in scoring total (his Game 1 number was 19.5 O/U).

Stephen Curry has appeared in five Game 7’s in his career, and he’s cooked when his team needed it the most. In those games, he’s averaged 32.6 points and scored 27 or more four times and at least 30 three times. Curry has played three Game 7’s on the road and averaged a whopping 36.7 points. In his most recent Game 7, he dropped a monstrous 50 points at Sacramento to close out the 2023 first-round series against the Kings. The NBA’s greatest shooter is no stranger to big moments, and he’s delivered consistently in Game 7’s throughout his career. With the Golden State Warriors role players struggling and Houston’s confidence at an all-time high, Curry will need to deliver a superhuman performance to silence the crowd at Toyota Center.

Coach Steve Kerr praised his first-year center and told the media he wouldn’t hesitate to play Post in Game 7 – “if I think that’s the right call.” But he did admit that Post’s foul issues have become a liability with the Rockets exploiting him. Kerr could opt to go with more familiar faces in the frontcourt in a crucial Game 7. He hinted to the media that Jonathan Kuminga could see a return to action after riding the pine for most of the series. Kerr also stated that Kevon Looney would play more than the two minutes he received in Game 6. That’s a lot of bodies to balance in the front court and while some projections are still high on Post’s efforts, I just don’t know if he’s going to get the playing time to threaten those totals. He’s posted combo stat lines of seven and eight points + rebounds + assists the past two games and I’m banking on Kerr siding with experience in a do-or-die Game 7.