Flames vs Golden Knights Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Defenses Join Forces

Thursday evening sees a Pacific Division tilt with the first-place Vegas Golden Knights hosting the fifth-place Calgary Flames. Calgary desperately needs this game to stay afloat in the playoff picture while Vegas attempts to separate further from the Los Angeles Kings.

Will the Golden Knights take care of business on home ice, or can the Flames pull off the road upset? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Flames vs. Golden Knights on Thursday, February 23.

Flames vs Golden Knights best odds

Flames vs Golden Knights picks and predictions

In typical Darryl Sutter style, the Calgary Flames are difficult to play against due to their suffocating defense. At 5-on-5, Calgary ranks fifth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

While goaltending typically lets down the Flames’ elite defense this season, this could serve as the contest to turn that around, as the Vegas Golden Knights are averaging just three goals scored per game over their last 13.

Stepping up for Vegas’ inconsistent offense has been its tremendous defense and goaltending. At 5-on-5, the Knights rank fourth in the league in xGA/60.

Backing up this defensively elite group is goaltender Adin Hill, who is expected to return to the crease following a one-game absence due to an undisclosed injury. Entering this contest in dominant form, Hill is 6-2 with a .926 save percentage (SV%) and 2.10 goals against average (GAA) over his last eight starts.

There were six or fewer total goals scored in five of those eight outings. This excellent play will likely continue against Calgary, a team he dominated last season.

Over his last two starts against the Flames, Hill is 2-0 with a .951 SV% and 2.00 GAA. With this combination of strong defensive play and goaltending, there have now been six or fewer total goals scored in 12 of Vegas’ last 16 games.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Flames vs Golden Knights moneyline analysis

These two teams are much more evenly matched than their records suggest, making Calgary the value play at +130 if you wish to back a side. At 5-on-5, the Flames rank one spot higher in xGF/60, but one spot lower in xGA/60.

The two advantages Vegas possesses in this matchup are location and goaltending, considering this contest takes place at T-Mobile Arena. Additionally, the Knights come off a day of rest while Calgary enters this contest on the second half of a road back-to-back. 

I think Vegas wins this game, but it is overpriced a bit at –150.

Flames vs Golden Knights Over/Under analysis

While both offenses are extremely solid, both blue lines are even better. My main concern with the Under is goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who is expected to get the nod on the second half of the back-to-back for Calgary.

There is no other way of putting it: Markstrom has been terrible this season. Through 38 starts, he is 15-14-7 with a .889 SV%, and is probably the only reason the Flames are not in the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference right now.

His underlying metrics are just as poor, and his track record against Vegas is not much better. Markstrom is the main reason this total is at 6.5 instead of six, but as long as Hill and the Knights’ blue line hold up their side of the bargain, this Under is still live even if Markstrom allows four goals.

Flames vs Golden Knights betting trend to know

There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in 12 of Vegas’ last 16 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs Golden Knights.

Flames vs Golden Knights game info

Flames vs Golden Knights key injuries

Pages related to this topic