Sportsbooks are preparing to receive significant action for the upcoming AL wild-card series between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.
Key Takeaways
- The Red Sox are underdogs despite winning the season series 9-4.
- Sportsbooks want the Yankees to win despite them having the highest share of money in AL futures.
- Boston has more tickets but less money.
Every matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox is a prize fight between bitter rivals, but it's taken to another level when the teams are battling in a best-of-three series for a spot in the division series.
With the series set to begin in New York on Tuesday, sportsbooks are hoping they’ll get the maximum number of games to take advantage of the betting frenzy.
“We expect significant action from bettors on the Yankees-Red Sox series,” said BetMGM’s John Ewing. “The trading team is hoping for a long series.”
“As of Monday afternoon, the Tigers-Guardians and Red Sox-Yankees matchups are drawing the most action for wild-card series betting,” said Adrian Horton, ESPN BET's senior director of North American sports trading. “The Dodgers are our most-bet Series Winner overall on a fairly lopsided split of tickets, followed by the Guardians and Yankees, though action is much closer to 50-50 in those series.”
Mike Palm, vice president of operations at Circa, The D, and Golden Gate Casinos, also said the series is expected to draw heavy interest. However, he said the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds’ series will have more at stake due to the public’s support for the Dodgers irrespective of the price.
Red Sox-Yankees series, Game 1
The Yankees enter Game 1 as -130 favorites on the moneyline, while the Red Sox are +110 underdogs. That’s despite the latter winning nine of 13 regular-season head-to-head matchups, although New York won two of three games in the teams' most recent series from Sept. 12-14.
Per BetMGM, 57% of bets and 63% of the handle in Game 1 is on the Red Sox moneyline. Sixty percent of tickets and 63% of the handle are also on the Red Sox to win the series.
ESPN BET reported that 53.7% of bets but only 42.2% of the handle were on the Yankees to win the series despite the Red Sox having the second-lowest share of tickets and handle in World Series futures.
The series will begin with Garrett Crochet battling Max Fried in a duel between the league’s winningest pitchers this season. Crochet went 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA in four appearances against the Yankees, all of which were wins for his club. Fried went 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA in three appearances, two of which ended in Yankees victories.
Aaron Judge is just +230 to hit a home run after he clobbered 53 during the regular season.
Who will win the pennant?
Despite bettors showing heavy support for the Yankees in futures markets, a series victory for the Pinstripes would be the best outcome for sportsbooks.
"The Dodgers and Brewers are two of the most popular bets to win the World Series. Surprisingly, the Yankees winning it all would be the best outcome for the sportsbook,” said Halvor Egeland, senior trader at BetMGM. “If the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox advance, this could be the most-bet MLB playoffs in BetMGM history.”
The Yankees enter the wild-card series at +850 to win the World Series, which is behind five other clubs. They rank fourth in ticket percentage (7.1) and fifth in their split of the handle (6.3%) to win the World Series.
The Red Sox have the fourth-longest World Series odds of any playoff team at +1,800. They are 10th in tickets (4.4%) and 11th in handle (3.5%).
New York is third in odds to win the AL at +400. The Yankees have 10.6% of tickets (fourth) and 23.3% of the handle (first) in that market.
Boston (+750) is surprisingly third in tickets (11.3%), putting it ahead of its rival. However, its handle (13.1%) is well behind.
World Series odds take shape
If World Series odds are any indication, this year’s championship will go to either the Philadelphia Phillies (+425) or Seattle Mariners (+500).
The Phils are responsible for the second-highest ticket share and third-highest handle percentage, while the AL-leading Mariners only have the 11th-most tickets and 10th-highest split of the handle.
