Mexico's gambling market is transforming at a rapid rate, estimated to rise from $11.37 billion in 2024 to $40.64 billion in 2033, according to an Astute Analytica report. This expansion, at a 15.71% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), makes the country a significant player in the global betting market.
Key takeaways
● Mexico's gambling market should grow 15.71% CAGR, reaching $40.64 billion by 2033.
● iGaming surges with mobile, VR, and crypto; land-based revenue declines slightly.
● Regulatory gaps persist; illegal gambling and cybersecurity breaches remain key issues.
The Federal Gaming and Raffles Law (LJRS) regulates the gaming sector and the Dirección General de Juegos y Sorteos (DGOJ) manages it. Operators must hold audited capital reserves with a $2 million minimum. They also need geoblocking technology to maintain market integrity and prevent cross-border betting.
Local jurisdictions vary; Jalisco is a 7% local GGR taxing jurisdiction, while Quintana Roo exempts taxes from integrated resorts as a tourism incentive. However, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), in its 2023 audit, indicated weaknesses were present in anti-money laundering (AML) controls.
Illegal gambling remains a problem, particularly in Mexico and Guerrero states. It's estimated to cost licensed operators about $450 million a year. There are regulatory challenges that still experience 12-18 month processing. AML violations draw up to $1.5 million in penalties.
Codere and Grupo Caliente are key market players, and keep expanding their digital and physical presence. Federal cryptocurrency gambling decisions were in progress late in 2024, and blockchain adoption grows on platforms, although in a nascent form.
Some land-based revenue slips as iGaming expands
Land-based casinos face headwinds – revenue fell 5% in 2023 to $1.4 billion. Mexico City and Monterrey experienced an 8% per-property income decline, with a 12% rise in labor costs.
Contrastingly, VIP table games on Grupo Caliente's Tijuana Hippodromo Casino recorded a 14% revenue rise. Slot machines remain popular, accounting for 78% of land casino profits.
The online gaming sector is thriving and projected to produce $1.4 billion in 2024. Mobile is rapidly emerging as a mass channel with an 82% smartphone uptake and 4G data plans for only $8 a month.
Geographically, northern states support sports betting, with 67% online turnover. In relation, Kambi announced an extension to its service in Mexico with Rush Street Interactive back in August.
Yet, integrity concerns persist. Operators use Sportradar's artificial intelligence-powered tools to spot suspicious betting trends, particularly on big-ticket events like NBA games in Mexico City, contributing to a 27% jump in prop betting activity.
Sportradar also recently released a global report involving the increase in match-fixing worldwide, with 65% of matches flagged involving soccer.
Although, in relation to Astute Analytica’s report, illegal gambling is still an issue in Mexico. It deprived the government of $310 million annually in lost tax revenue. However, things could improve. A pilot project using blockchain by SEGOB to monitor betting payments decreased illicit income by 19% in three months.
