Despite Las Vegas being in the midst of a downward tourist attendance trend, a financial analyst foresees a return to productivity coming.
Key Takeaways
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A resurgence in Las Vegas visitation could come from a “robust” convention market and non-gaming sports expansion.
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Visitation is down 6% quarter-to-date in the U.S.’s gambling Mecca.
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Nearly 42 million guests visited Las Vegas in 2024.
Visitations to America’s gambling Mecca have taken a hit recently. Year-over-year attendance has declined in each of the last five months, leading to lower gaming volumes and changes in business models for major hotel and casino operators like MGM and Caesars.
Citizens Senior Equity Research Analyst Jordan Bender described visitation as “sluggish” in his recent “Brick and Mortar Casino 2025 Preview.” However, Bender doesn’t forecast a bleak future outlook.
He said convention season and group business in upcoming quarters could be at 15-20% in Las Vegas, “potentially achieving a record level in 2026.”
The resurgence will come from improved hotel supply levels, a “robust” future convention market, and expansion into non-gaming sports. Las Vegas is the future site of the MLB’s Athletics, and the NBA has shown interest in potentially placing an expansion team in the city.
“We favor CZR for operators with Las Vegas exposure,” Bender wrote.
Slowing down
Bender said visitation has slowed and fallen 6% quarter-to-date, “with tougher comps, international travel, softness (12% of visitors), and a softening of lower-end” customers.
These declines have resulted in the first trailing 12-month negative visitor volume growth since 2018, not including the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown of Las Vegas, according to Bender.
“We expect questions and commentary to focus on ongoing softness as the booking window is shortening, leaving operators like MGM and CZR (Caesars), looking for ways to increase pricing across non-gaming business segments,” Bender said. “While gaming volumes and visitation are down QTD, companies have leveraged higher pricing (ADR up YoY) to offset the minor headwinds.”
Where are the people?
In the latest report from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) visitor figures fell 6.5% in May compared to the same month in 2024, citing “headwinds of ongoing economic uncertainty” for the decrease. Gaming revenue was down 11%.
That came after a 5.1% visitation decline in April and an even steeper 7.8% dropoff in March. The LVCVA also projected a 1.16% decrease in visitation during the Fourth of July weekend. Tourism also fell 12% during February’s Super Bowl, a year after Las Vegas hosted the NFL’s premier event.
Last year, the LVCVA reported that 41.7 million guests visited the city, including six million convention attendees.
