BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt thinks sanity will ultimately prevail, and federal lawmakers will undo the wagering loss deduction change the U.S. Congress inserted into President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.
- BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt expressed confidence Congress will reverse the controversial federal cap limiting wagering loss deductions to 90%.
- BetMGM reported significant revenue and profitability growth in 2025's first half, but faces headwinds from rising state taxes and new per-bet fees in Illinois, where it's adopted a minimum bet model instead of a player surcharge.
- Greenblatt indicated BetMGM is cautiously monitoring prediction markets' rise without rushing in, while remaining optimistic about regulated iGaming's future legalization and expansion, positioning BetMGM as a likely major beneficiary.
Asked about the change during a conference call for analysts and investors on Tuesday, Greenblatt admitted there's some “crystal ball stuff here,” but he believes Congress will reinstate the 100% deduction for gambling losses.
In a move that seemingly caught many bettors, operators, and even lawmakers unawares, the version of the Big Beautiful Bill President Trump signed into law earlier this month lowered the amount of losses gamblers can deduct to 90%, and relative to their winnings.
"We think this is going to go away," BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt says of the One Big Beautiful Bill's changes to wagering loss deductions. Enough smart people have realized it's probably not the best approach, Greenblatt added during their Q2 business update this morning.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 29, 2025
This created the possibility of gamblers who break even getting taxed next year on winnings they don't really have.
“I think there are enough smart people who recognize that this may not have been the best approach to take,” Greenblatt said. “There are a number of bills … to unwind the 90% cap. And frankly, we've run all the scenarios and the numbers and the current framework can result in really some anomalous, just outcomes which don't make sense. So we think the rational outcome will prevail, and we think that this is going to go away.”
Greenblatt’s comments will likely be welcomed by anxious gamblers facing the prospect of paying tax on what some called “phantom” income. For example, someone who wins $100,000 playing blackjack but also loses $100,000 playing blackjack could only deduct $90,000 in losses, leaving $10,000 in non-existent winnings on which they’re taxed.
Don't upset our apple cart, please
Federal lawmakers recognized the issue this could create for taxpayers and the gambling industry. Three bills have already been introduced in Congress to undo the change, and the House Ways and Means Committee chair, Republican Rep. Jason Smith, said last week that a bipartisan effort was underway to correct the problem.
If the fix isn’t made, though, it could be another headwind for operators of online sports betting sites in the U.S. such as BetMGM.
Greenblatt’s comments followed the release of BetMGM’s business update for the first half of 2025, which included year-over-year improvements to its bottom line.
Net revenue for the online sports betting and iGaming operator was nearly $1.35 billion for the first six months of the year, up 35% from 2024. Net income was $88 million, up from a $141 million loss a year earlier. First-half EBITDA was $109 million, a $232 million improvement over 2024.
Good news for the 100% gambling loss tax bill today after a key Republican Rep. reaffirmed the bill has growing, bipartisan support. But the legislative process is never easy and any change has a long way to go before it is set to take effect Jan. 1
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) July 25, 2025
BetMGM estimated its net gaming revenue market share in online sports betting and iGaming in both Canada and the U.S. was 15% for the quarter, putting it in a solid third-place position behind FanDuel and DraftKings.
"BetMGM has seen a strong first half of the year, delivering significant revenue and EBITDA growth that is underpinned by the ongoing execution of our strategic plan,” Greenblatt said in a statement.
BetMGM's online sports betting handle was up 27% in 2025's first half compared to 2024, rising to approximately $7.5 billion. Overall, the company said it had approximately 984,000 average monthly active players in the first six months of the year, up 6% from 2024.
“Our iGaming business continues to deliver new records as we showed why BetMGM is the go-to destination for all players, and in Online Sports, our refined player targeting and management capabilities have driven strong engagement and player KPIs across the board,” Greenblatt added.
There are some clouds on the horizon, however, such as the 90% cap on wagering loss deductions. There are also the ongoing existence and growth of prediction markets, increasing state tax rates, competition from sweepstakes casinos, and a lack of new markets, at least for now.
Liquid dearth
Greenblatt said BetMGM is monitoring the prediction market situation and won’t be “caught flat-footed."
He added later that while they may have the ability, they don't have the desire to be a “first mover” among online sports betting operators into federally regulated prediction markets.
In explaining this, Greenblatt noted that state gaming regulators, tribal gaming partners, and more than 30 state attorneys general were clear they don't believe prediction markets should offer sports event contracts, which they view as sports betting.
Those contracts make it possible for prediction market operators such as Kalshi to offer de facto sports betting in all 50 states, rather than the ones that legalized sports betting.
Greenblatt also voiced some doubts sportsbook operators could make much of a splash in the prediction market business, as he said those markets are generally “very much liquidity driven.”
The likes of Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com could grow this kind of liquidity in a way that far exceeds sportsbook operators' capability, Greenblatt suggested.
“To the point where I feel like it's the prediction markets operators who are more likely to have an outsized market share than those trying to get into the market new,” he said. “And so I don't think … BetMGM has a right to win in trying to become a leader in what is a very different market, from a regulatory perspective very different, from a technical perspective, from a risk management perspective, just very different.”
Polymarket bettors on the Under re: Supreme Court intervention in the sports event contract biz pic.twitter.com/avl1PX7x1B
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 24, 2025
However, Greenblatt did point out that obtaining a futures commission merchant license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which would allow for a partnership with a prediction market, is an approximately 12-month process.
“So … frankly, we won't be surprised by anything in this domain,” he added. “And, as I said before, we are following it very, very closely. We are not underestimating the possibility that this becomes a meaningful factor in our sector, but we are not going to be a first mover in this domain.”
'A surcharge-free zone'
BetMGM has plenty to worry about in its existing domains. For starters, the company estimates an approximately $25-million hit to EBITDA in 2025's second half because of tax hikes in New Jersey, Maryland, and Louisiana, as well as the new per-bet tax in Illinois.
Concerning Illinois, Greenblatt said BetMGM is “a surcharge-free zone for now.”
Not sweating potential competition from online sportsbook operators or otherwise, but nothing on when they'll reenter the U.S. officially in a regulated fashion. https://t.co/xLJLMIaDBd
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) July 23, 2025
Instead of adopting a transaction fee for all bets, as competitors DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel plan to do in September, BetMGM already added a minimum $2.50 wagering requirement for Illinois sports betting. This, Greenblatt said, ensures the company’s “theoretical expected margin” will cover the per-bet tax's cost.
While BetMGM will evaluate how things go with the minimum bet and possibly tweak its approach in the future, it also sees an opportunity for some competition among operators in how they offset the new tax. Illinois now charges operators 25 cents for each of their first 20 million bets in a year, and then 50 cents above that.
“We note that others have introduced a surcharge, passing on the full cost of that surcharge to players in the short term,” Greenblatt said. “We feel like this is a relative competitive opportunity for BetMGM and other players that feel that that might be somewhat punitive. So, look, what happens in the future will depend on the financial impact of the approach we're taking at the moment. But we want, at least for now, BetMGM to be a surcharge-free zone.”
In iGaming, an area where BetMGM no doubt feels like it has a “right to win” given its ties to co-owner MGM Resorts International, Greenblatt feels it's more of a question of “when” rather than “if” more states legalize online casino operators.
Back it up, sweeps
The CEO's optimism comes from the increasing number of iGaming bills lawmakers introduced in state legislatures, budget shortfalls some states may face, more data to combat concerns about cannibalization of brick-and-mortar gaming activity, and the presence of sweepstakes casinos.
“We are clear that we believe sweeps to be illegal iGaming,” Greenblatt said. “And it's bad for the regulated sector, it’s bad for state revenues, it’s bad for players.”
BetMGM is happy to see more states taking legislative action against sweeps, he added, and the company is lobbying for more states to regulate iGaming.
“I think BetMGM more than anyone stands to gain relatively most in the event that it happens, and we fully anticipate over time that to happen,” Greenblatt said. “But the message to our lawmakers is the sweeps activity is happening anyway. As I've said, the good guys aren't benefiting, and so we would like to see that situation unwind and, in fact, reverse.”
