Posted:
#1
At my bookie the lines for Nadal outright has already dropped from 2.80 to 2.40 and still going down after the federer match while federer sits at 1.95 this seems to indicate a projected nadal-fed final would have a line around 1.6 nadal 2.3 federer unless nadal or fed starts getting some big action or nadal plays differently than expected against dimi. Obviously if dimitrov gets the upset then fed goes in a big favourite.
key things to note about a potential fedal final
- Nadal has won their last 4 grand slam encounters that weren't on clay (obviously hes won them all on clay), the last 3 in Australia (2009,12,14) and also wimby 2008. He holds a massive lead in their grand slam h2h. Obviously its slightly different with question marks about how much they have declined, but in the past its been obvious nadal is a bad stylistic matchup being left handed for federer.
- Question marks over feds form, Wawrinka had a serve first serve percentage of 78% in a losing first set, but he won the 3rd with 48% 6-1, thats how bad fed was that set.
- While fed has had two 5 setters in his last 3, he gets the advantage of an extra 24hours rest so a 72hour break.
Theres no doubt both are hungry for another slam.
tldr: put your bankroll on Dimitrov tournament winner
0
/s but in all seriousness credit to dimitrov for producing the best match of his career but it still wasn't enough. A 5 hour match with 40hours until the final isn't ideal but its nothing new after the 2009 semi final where uncle Toni had him in ice baths straight away.
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