Pretty much every side that make it to the knockout stage of this competition are of high quality. Nonetheless, there are plenty of matches in which a side in this first knockout are prohibitive underdogs, and there are situations where these sides do much better than expected. A number of lesser sides who have lost their opening match at home by exactly 2 goals have won away as big dogs, most of them winning by 1 and therefore getting knocked out anyway. Huge favorites dropping points at home in the second leg include Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, PSG, Man City, Dortmund, Real Madrid (to Schalke as a 14/1 dog in 2015) and Bayern Munich twice against Arsenal in 2013 and 2014. Nearly all the matches have been low scoring.
I would surmise that the reason, if there is a reason beyond simple variance, is that the huge underdogs have been made huge underdogs by the market because of a simple rationale: The away sides in the second leg all lost at home to these superior sides last week, so what could we possibly expect of them this week, on away? But as I said, all the sides are good. What's more, when away goals were a thing, these home sides knew the only thing that could get them in trouble was to give up away goals. Sides at home adopted a more defensive posture against underdogs who can't afford to go down three in the tie.
I will have other plays close to the kickoff in the UK, but I'm putting two bets in early, for me. I'm supporting Brugge, who are down by 2 goals at Benfica as massive underdogs.
Pretty much every side that make it to the knockout stage of this competition are of high quality. Nonetheless, there are plenty of matches in which a side in this first knockout are prohibitive underdogs, and there are situations where these sides do much better than expected. A number of lesser sides who have lost their opening match at home by exactly 2 goals have won away as big dogs, most of them winning by 1 and therefore getting knocked out anyway. Huge favorites dropping points at home in the second leg include Liverpool, Atletico Madrid, PSG, Man City, Dortmund, Real Madrid (to Schalke as a 14/1 dog in 2015) and Bayern Munich twice against Arsenal in 2013 and 2014. Nearly all the matches have been low scoring.
I would surmise that the reason, if there is a reason beyond simple variance, is that the huge underdogs have been made huge underdogs by the market because of a simple rationale: The away sides in the second leg all lost at home to these superior sides last week, so what could we possibly expect of them this week, on away? But as I said, all the sides are good. What's more, when away goals were a thing, these home sides knew the only thing that could get them in trouble was to give up away goals. Sides at home adopted a more defensive posture against underdogs who can't afford to go down three in the tie.
I will have other plays close to the kickoff in the UK, but I'm putting two bets in early, for me. I'm supporting Brugge, who are down by 2 goals at Benfica as massive underdogs.
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