RagnarLothbrok

Teams with a big edge in Starting Pitching (SP) have lost a lot this year. Looking at the Reds game, it seems like a trap game when they're only -135, but have a SP ERA edge of about 2.80.

Does anyone have a statistic for team WL record when a team has an ERA edge of >2.00 by SP?? Preferably for a big-ish sample like all of last year. (I dont know if this is allowed on Covers, but include your Venmo username and I'll happily send $10)

I've noticed this year a lot of big differences between SPs (starting pitchers) and teams with the better SP end up losing. Looking at the Reds game, seems like a trap game when they're only -135, but have a SP ERA edge of about 2.80

Does anyone have some statistic for team WL record when a team has an ERA edge of >2.00 by SP?? Preferably for a big-ish sample like all of last year. (I dont know if this is allowed on Covers, but include your Venmo username and I'll happily send $10)

Cheers. I'm big on Mcconnell over points. He's earned some more minutes with or without the Hali injury.

he wont feel it but his rebounds are probably affected, he physically cant get lift, so he might hit 3’s ala MPJ, but hustle on defense and rebounds are probably under.

@CaseyMcGehee

 thanks a bunch. i’ll likely be doing this. it just sucks i cant really lock anything up just yet without going overboard. 

i got min 4-1 and indy 4-1 (when it was +400 and +1100) the parlay is $29k full profit. 

SO i looked at my other futures bets and i do have $3.5k profit future bet on okc4 and boston4.

i should just focus on Knicks?

Thank you. I figured OKC-325 might be impossible to hedge on.

so i’m live betting for the hedge and hoping for a good spot. Celtics will 100%. have a lead at some point game 6 so knicks +200 or better is getting a big bet (maybe just $500, not a full hedge sadly).

I dont have much hope for game 7 Denver even taking a lead, but crazy things can happen. Live betting OKC if that happens too +200 or better. 

Then if the parlay is still kicking then Knicks game 7 is getting a big $10k bet. 

I have a $10 to $29,000 bet on Celtics in 7 parlayed with Nuggets in 7. 

whats the optimal hedge?

assume i’m willing to spend up to $20k for at least $5k profit. 

@PublicJoe

 this is wrong. trying to accurately pick WHICH games the Wolves will win in a 7 game series is far more difficult than picking the series. 

a smart gambler knows to take the safe bets

Scott Foster - “Chris Paul’s gone? We need a series extended?”

Phoenix win. KD cant get swept. 

Pels on home court have been BAAAAAD

CJ has been BAAAAAD

BI has been BAAAAAD

Pels getting swept. Lakers getting swept. 

game 1 set the tone if you watched it. there’s no real stars on the court, even Spider hasnt had postseason success. 

Lakers needed Game 3. Suns needed Game 3. Both were pickems. 

Game 3’s get massive bets from bettors of the losing team down 0-2 because of this fallacy that they will “play better with their backs against the wall”.

Sure Magic and 76ers bounced back, so you’re 50-50 if you’re putting a lot of betting weight into “they cant go down 0-3”.

Make sure you’re betting Pels bc of more than backs against the wall.

Pacers now -525 with Damian Lillard out. Classic Doc Rivers collapse job and offseason excuse train. 

Stop placing bets “because the money is lopsided”

These Clips need crazy 3p shooting to win, bc their defense IS NOT GOOD. Its certainly not as good as the Mavs defense.

Mavs WILL advance. Just bet that. Harden and Kawhi dont really care about basketball anymore. 

The Pacers are the best offense in the league. (by most metrics)

Its Darvin Ham. 

now the pacers are probably -300 to advance. 

 Patbev, Malik, Connaughton getting all these minutes is HILARIOUS. Meanwhile TJ Mcconnell is looking like Steph Curry lmao 

Orlando cant shoot 3’s. They’re worst among all playoff teams by a lot and 24th/30 teams in team 3p% regular season. 

If Orlando win its an Under game with their top 10 defense and shoddy offense. 

Its a parlay Orlando Under or pass.

Cleveland wins an Over game, i’ll hedge on that. 

I compelely forgot.

Doc Rivers.

I’m more of a Bucks fan too, the offseason just seems ripe for a Doc Rivers blame train, but this year its easy, Giannis was injured. 

Giannis wont be 100% when he comes back. Its the nature of the playoffs. Embiid is back but look at him. Giannis has a high probability of aggravating. Middleton is having an ankle problem. 

They’re giving more minutes to Malik and Patbev than they should EVER be getting. Jae Crowder looks clumsy. They cant run an actual offense or get an assist to save their lives. 

The Pacers are the best offense in the league. 

The Pacers are the best offense in the league.

The average bettor does not know this, so i had to repeat it. They are as healthy as they’ve been all year, only Mathurin is out but he was a #3 option. Siakam is playing out of his mind and winning against Portis, Miles Turner is beating Lopez pretty easily, and Indiana’s arena will be LOUD losing or not (they’re not fair weather boston fans).

I just dont see how the Pacers arent -200. I put half of my betting account on Pacers-125 to advance ($300).