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@Puckhandler
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NastyFinger | 7 |
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@Killer_B
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NastyFinger | 7 |
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Haven't posted since 2018 and been a member since 2007. I have a routine I've been doing for over 4 years where I look over the board & do my research, then guess the lines / leans for each game. Then I check Pinnacle / bet365 / WilliamHill for the lines. If my lines differ from Vegas by enough to make me jump...I pounce. LIONS / BUCS OVER 42.5 |
NastyFinger | 7 |
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Week one! On a lot of slight Fav's here...not by design, but they check out! JAGUARS -2.5 (1.83) WAGER - 1.00U COLTS -2.5 (2.00) WAGER - 1.25U PANTHERS -2.5 (1.83) WAGER - 1.00U PACKERS -7.5 (2.05) WAGER - 1.5U Feeling really confident in INDI with Luck back in the lineup. Last year was a $h!tshow for them, without him they're a shell of a team. They handled his injury terribly but they should come out firing this year at home against a BAD cinci D. Jag's are coming off a division title, mostly due to a STELLAR Defense. When I looked at this game I had them -5.5 or even -6...so -2.5 here looks juicy! This is week 1, so I'm tentative to lay more than a unit on a team who has trouble putting points on the board though... The Panthers/Dal game could honestly go either way. I see the cowboys having a decent year and finishing right on the line of making the playoffs, but this team is YOUNG. I see it taking a few games to find their rhythm. Carolina will make you pay for mistakes, they can run up the score quickly. I think -2.5 is a good number here for Carolina at home. The packers...ugh, this game will be fun to watch! The packers D is suspect, but the Chicago Offense shouldnt expose much of it, I like the pack here! LETS GOO!
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NastyFinger | 1 |
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COLORADO vs BOSTON >> BOSTON 1x2 (regulation) -125 ($150 to win $270 ($120 profit)
More later
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NastyFinger | 2 |
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YTD: 3-4 (- $116.50)
No plays yesterday as it was a light card with only the Haps and Rangers. Rangers were coming off short rest against a wild game against Toronto, so didnt know what they would have left in the tank against the habs. Saturday was interesting. The leafs did what I thought they would do, they scored early and often, but they also fell back into old habits in their own end. I had mentioned that NYR would rely on pounding pucks to the net front the point...and it worked for them in the 2nd period. The leafs came out on top in the end, but it took 8 goals...wow. Minnesota was my dog play and then looked fantastic...until the 3rd period. They lost in a SO, but it was still la good value play. Edmonton shocked me here. They didn't look like themselves...and Vancouver came to play. This game really surprised me! Although I still think Vancouver finished towards the bottom of the pack, I might lay off of them completely until I see more. Early leans today look like: Toronto v Chic - OVER Both teams are bringing serious offensive heat early this season. Toronto showed last game that they can't clear the front of the net, and Chicago can make even the best defence look silly. Lots of goals here...it'll also be a GREAT game to watch. Chicago wins 6-3'ish. By the way, the line just came out for this and Toronto is favoured...I know they're playing well (I've bet and won on them twice this year already) but I see them as a dog here..even at home. I'll be looking into Chicago here as a HUGE value play. Colorado vs Boston Boston looked fantastic against Nashville last week. Not a sexy game, but they played TOUGH. Colorado had a great first game against NYR but then lost 4-1 to NJ giving up 39 shots in the process. This colorado team was bad last year, and it'll be bad this year. Boston wins at home in regulation. I want to take Edmonton over Winnipeg..I like the matchup for Edmonton...but I can't play them after that performance and Saturday. I need to see them wake back up again before laying anything on them. I dont like the STL / NYI matchup at all...and still want to see more of Calgary before laying & either way on them. I think these 3 games will be it today. |
NastyFinger | 2 |
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Wooow. The leafs aren’t messing around tonight 5-2 after the first
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NastyFinger | 13 |
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MINNESOTA vs COLORADO >> MINNESOTA TO WIN 1x2 (regulation) +175 > $100 to win $275 (+$175.00 profit) I like Minn here. IMHO, Minn is coming into this season under the radar after falling short of expectations last season. When playing well, this team can hang with ANYONE. More to come later Minn is a dog here, which I understand...but if they come to play, they win this. Good value play. |
NastyFinger | 13 |
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EDMONTON vs VANCOUVER >> EDMONTON TO WIN 1x2 (regulation) +100 > $150 to win $300.00 (+$150.00 profit) Edmonton is a scary offensive team. Although the score was only 3-0, they dominated Calgary on Wednesday in their home-opener in a game that could of easily been 6-0. The most impressive part of that W was their defensive! They attack the puck in the neutral zone and are back-checking better than anyone in the league. They held a fast Calgary team to 27 shots on Wed and looked comfortable from the first whistle. Its been a long time coming for Edmonton fans, but this talented group is finally playing with the poise of a team that can contend for a cup. Vancouver is a mess. A team that needs to rebuild but doesn't want to admit it. The twins are a year older and now they look to guys like...Boeser (really?) to become the new blood in the franchise (HA!). I'm sorry but this team is a mess. This team should finish towards the bottom of the standings this season. The good news about Vancouver this season? It's a Canadian Hockey Team which means there will always be enough public money on them to keep the line valuable on the other side. Looking at Edmonton ML, maybe PL. This is home-opener for Vancouver - which usually means they'll have a huge surge in the first 10 minutes of the 1st period...but look for EDM to take over with speed by the 2nd. |
NastyFinger | 13 |
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SATURDAY PLAYS:
TORONTO v NYR >> TORONTO TO WIN 1x2 (regulation) +115 > $150 to win $322.50 (+$172.20 profit) Love how the leafs played late last year and during their playoff run. They had a great pre-season and season opener against the Pegs on Wednesday. Tonight is their home opener vs NYR who had a very very sub-par game against Colorado a few nights ago. I watched the entire game on Thursday which was my first look at NYR this season and I wasn't impressed at all. They relied on pucks to the net from the point and only had a few odd man rush opportunities (which were wasted). This is the type of "New NHL" style teams that will beat teams in the neutral zone and win games 2-1 or 3-1. They frustrate you, but don't overwhelm you offensively. NYR does NOT match up well against Toronto. Toronto has shown that they will out work you with relentless puck pressure and speed on the forecheck. They have the offensive skill to finish in the offensive zone and have a one of the best transition games in the NHL. Their weakness is on defence and organization in their own zone...and I don't think NYR will push those weaknesses tonight. Toronto wins this game in regulation |
NastyFinger | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jars: I'm with you on Leafs & Oilers BOL today! Good to hear!
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NastyFinger | 13 |
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Thanks DCGMT
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NastyFinger | 13 |
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Love your Leafs ML lean - I'll be on that as well. Leafs matchup well against NYR. They should overwhelm with puck pressure.
I'm holding off on both Ottawa and Buff this year until I see more from them. I see you have McDavid on there. I'm loving EDM tonight against VAN. Best of luck!
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TEBOW12 | 15 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Odds1_stinker: GREAT WORK! |
NastyFinger | 13 |
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EDMONTON v VANCOUVER Edmonton is a scary offensive team. Although the score was only 3-0, they dominated Calgary on Wednesday in their home-opener in a game that could of easily been 6-0. The most impressive part of that W was their defensive! They attack the puck in the neutral zone and are back-checking better than anyone in the league. They held a fast Calgary team to 27 shots on Wed and looked comfortable from the first whistle. Its been a long time coming for Edmonton fans, but this talented group is finally playing with the poise of a team that can contend for a cup. Vancouver is a mess. A team that needs to rebuild but doesn't want to admit it. The twins are a year older and now they look to guys like...Boeser (really?) to become the new blood in the franchise (HA!). I'm sorry but this team is a mess. This team should finish towards the bottom of the standings this season. The good news about Vancouver this season? It's a Canadian Hockey Team which means there will always be enough public money on them to keep the line valuable on the other side. Looking at Edmonton ML, maybe PL. This is home-opener for Vancouver - which usually means they'll have a huge surge in the first 10 minutes of the 1st period...but look for EDM to take over with speed by the 2nd. I'll confirm a play later today. MINNESOTA v CAROLINA I need to head into the office soon and running out of time to post, but I like Minn here. IMHO, Minn is coming into this season under the radar after falling short of expectations last season. When playing well, this team can hang with ANYONE. More to come later Minn is a dog here, which I understand...but if they come to play, they win this. Good value play.
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NastyFinger | 13 |
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YTD: 2-2 (-$39) I didn't play yesterday as I didn't like anything on the card. I'm still keeping the card light this early in the season and feeling out a few teams before upping my nightly units. SATURDAY LEANS: TORONTO v NYR Love how the leafs played late last year and during their playoff run. They had a great pre-season and season opener against the Pegs on Wednesday. Tonight is their home opener vs NYR who had a very very sub-par game against Colorado a few nights ago. I watched the entire game on Thursday which was my first look at NYR this season and I wasn't impressed at all. They relied on pucks to the net from the point and only had a few odd man rush opportunities (which were wasted). This is the type of "New NHL" style teams that will beat teams in the neutral zone and win games 2-1 or 3-1. They frustrate you, but don't overwhelm you offensively. NYR does NOT match up well against Toronto. Toronto has shown that they will out work you with relentless puck pressure and speed on the forecheck. They have the offensive skill to finish in the offensive zone and have a one of the best transition games in the NHL. Their weakness is on defence and organization in their own zone...and I don't think NYR will push those weaknesses tonight. Toronto wins this game. I will wait to see if there's value in a regulation win and maybe -1.5 before making a play. |
NastyFinger | 13 |
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THURSDAY
Colorado v NYR >>> NYR Puckline (regulation) -128.21 $100 to win $178
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NastyFinger | 3 |
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YTD: 2-1 (+$61 or +0.61 units) WEDNESDAY (yesterday) Toronto v Winnipeg >>> Toronto ML (-109.89) $100 to win $191 Toronto v Winnipeg >>> OVER Total 5.5 (-142.86) $100 to win $170 Calgary v Edmonton >>> OVER Total 5.5 (-109.89) $100 to win $191 I'm glad I stayed away from the Pittsburg v STL game. Pitt is a team I've made some $ on in the last few years by betting them in the right spots. Quite often they were away dogs coming off back to back nights, or stretches of 3 games in 4 nights. Usually those were trouble spots for teams, but they seemed to play well "tired" and I found good value in them. I'm hesitant this year with Pittsburg though. It's not because they lost Fleury, Kunitz, Cullen, Bonino or even Pouliot..I just feel like this team has played a LOT of hockey, they're a year older and a few injuries could take this team to a cup contender to a team fighting for a playoff spots. These points are more relevant to a CUP / DIVISION futures bet than game-to-game betting...but I just don't feel the cash confidence with this group that I have in past years. TONIGHT: I'll post pics later LEANING : NYR ML, OTT ML, Mon v Buff UNDER |
NastyFinger | 3 |
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Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat: obviously it is "money returned" on the bet. money BET + money WON total pay back exactly! I track my picks in excel and always keep total return (which includes bet) in one column. |
NastyFinger | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sailorman1965: I’m thinking 4-2 Leafs and 4-3 Oilers both over 5.5 I could honestly see the leafs getting 5 or 6 in this one. The Pegs should be dangerous offensively as well, so I could see this going 5-3 or 5-4.
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NastyFinger | 6 |
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