LippyLeans

Ouch. 

Paige Bueckers has not had back to back games under 20 since May 21st&24th. She has seven games of 20+ this season and 4 of them have come on the road, including a career high 35 @PHX, 21 in both wins @CON, and 20 in Washington (a game that went to OT). She would not have hit 20 in the Washington game without the extra 5 minutes, but what stands out to me is that in road games where Dallas has been competitive, Paige has been a big offensive factor. It is also worth noting that Arike played in that Washington game. Paige's 11 points and 27% from the field in the blowout loss @PHX are both her lowest marks since May 24th. Her 3 assists is her lowest mark on the road all season. The matchup looks really good to me.

She's had 7 or more assists in 5 of 9 road games this season and Chicago gives em up at the 4th highest rate. 

She has scored 12% of her points in the RZ and Sky are 11th defending that area.

She has scored 24% of her points above the break beyond the arc and Sky are 12th defending that area.

She has scored 36% of her points inside the arc and outside the paint. Sky are 10th defending that area. 

>72% of points scored in areas where Chicago is bottom 4 D. 

She has scored 23% of her points as the PNR ball handler. Chicago is 12th defending that action.

She has scored 14% of her points in transition. Chicago again 12th.

With another 16% coming at the line, as long as she gets a few calls tonight the 20 feels pretty inevitable.

Paige Bueckers o19.5 points @-105

risk: 1.26u

Paige Bueckers o6.5 assists @+170

risk: 0.6u

Nice hit. Go wings.

@Digitalkarma

 15/10/15 doesn’t do it for ya, huh? Tough guy to please. 

Either way, looking like a season high today with 15 already in the first half. 

@Digitalkarma

 BOL with Merc. AT has a history of playing well against Minnesota and there should be plenty on her shoulders again. 

Interesting note on McBride today. Since putting on a Lynx uniform in 2021, she has played 8 games in Phoenix. She has gone over 14.5 points in 7 of those 8 games and has 4 games of 20+ in that span. So far this season she has 8 games scoring over 14.5 points and 8 games scoring under. She is on a 4 game streak to the under coming into this game. It is perhaps worth noting that she has played 6 games on the road this season and has scored over 14.5 points in 5 of those 6 games. The matchup is not phenomenal, but it could be a whole lot worse. Ladder potential here for sure. 

@Digitalkarma

 Totally agreed. Reese questionable. If she sits the transition is a bit easier for Kamilla but Chicago loses their engine and I still feel good about the wager.  BOL 

6 straight covers for the Sky. 2-4 over that span with wins over LAS. 3rd game in 4 nights, 2nd of a back to back at home after 4 games on the road. They played Minnesota close a couple games ago and Reese was vocal afterwards about feeling robbed by the refs. 3 of their next four games are against the Lynx, including back to back games hosting them right after today’s game. 

On the wings side, as I have already said, I think they have had this game circled ever since losing back to back games to Chicago earlier this season. I’m sure they are aware of their “road woes”. This is a great opportunity to pick up a road win against someone other than Connecticut. If not tonight, it’s hard to see when it would happen. Their third and final game on this road stretch is @IND. Next few coming are @SEA, @GSV, @NYL etc… Much stiffer competition in my eyes. 

I don’t love that Dallas just picked up Haley Jones, but there’s really no good reason for her to play a lot tonight. Hopefully Koclanes doesn’t ruin this opportunity. I do however like that Kamilla is returning tonight. Chicago has found some momentum without her and even if she is a positive player, I’ve always had some doubts about the two big lineup and I think the shake up will stunt Chicago a bit tonight. Either way, Dallas is well equipped at this point in the season to match up however needed downlow between Yueru, Geiselsoder, Hines-Allen, and McCowan. Kamilla was a problem for them last time. Once again, I am forced to put some faith in Koclanes. I don’t want to, but even for him this shit should be simple. 

Dallas Wings ML @-110

risk: 1.32u

Dallas is definitely playing better in the 2nd quarter of this season (5-3 so far). They also just beat this PHX team as 11.5 point dogs with Sabally and Copper both playing. 

The 6 point line tonight is basically the same as the line when Dallas visited Phoenix on June 11th. This was pre Li Yueru and pre Aziaha James. Arike, Carrington, and Siegrist played. Nalyssa Smith was also around. Copper was out for PHX but otherwise the team was completely healthy. 

Just looking at names on the page, 6 feels a bit high especially when compared to the line from a month ago. PHX has lost back to back games for the first time all season and I’m expecting a very focused team effort from them to break that streak. Copper and Sabally out should only have them more focused. Injuries or no, losing back to back games to Dallas would be straight up embarrassing. 

On the Wings side, they have 2 road wins all season and both were in Connecticut. For a team that is heavily relying on young players tonight, I could see the PHX crowd being a factor.

Clamp down on D, surround AT with undrafted shooters (plus Sami) and just let it fly. 

Finally, this Dallas team is “feeling good” and probably looking ahead a bit to the game in Chicago after this because early in the season they lost back to back games to the Sky. I literally watched Courtney Williams ask Dijonai about their only win when they only had one and Court said multiple times “y’all ain’t beat Dallas? What?” While dijonai was covering her face.  Dallas wants to prove something in this 2nd set of 11 games and the 5-3 record is one thing. Getting revenge on a team that beat you twice in back to back games would certainly help  

Hard to stay focused on a team you just beat that will be without two starters when the next game up is a bad team that beat you twice and you’re looking for revenge. At least, I hope that’s the case. 

PHX MERCURY -6 @ (-110)

risk: 1.32u

@Digitalkarma

 I know you made the wager without realizing Copper and Sabally out, but I still think you are on the right side. 

Dallas is definitely playing better in the 2nd quarter of this season (5-3 so far). They also just beat this PHX team as 11.5 point dogs with Sabally and Copper both playing. 

The 6 point line tonight is basically the same as the line when Dallas visited Phoenix on June 11th. This was pre Li Yueru and pre Aziaha James. Arike, Carrington, and Siegrist played. Nalyssa Smith was also around. Copper was out for PHX but otherwise completely healthy. 

Just looking at names on the page, 6 feels a bit high especially when compared to the line from a month ago. PHX has lost back to back games for the first time all season and I’m expecting a very focused season effort from them to break that streak. Copper and Sabally out should only have them more focused. Injuries or no, losing back to back games to Dallas would be straight up embarrassing. 

On the Wings side, they have 2 road wins all season and both were in Connecticut. For a team that is heavily relying on young players tonight, I could see the PHX crowd being a factor tonight. Clamp down on D, surround AT with undrafted shooters (plus Sami) and just let it fly. 

Finally, this Dallas team is “feeling good” and probably looking ahead a bit to the game in Chicago after this because early in the season they lost back to back games to the Sky. Hard to stay focused on a team you just beat that will be without two starters when the next game up is a bad team that beat you twice and you’re looking for revenge. At least, I hope that’s the case. 

BOL DK

Not here to argue with anyone but to answer the original question: yes. The worst things about the product are the officiating and the broadcasts but the players are very good at basketball and obviously not every game is going to be amazing but there are a lot of good ones. The WNBA finals last year was 100x more entertaining than the NBA finals (Boston&Dallas) and anyone who doesn’t think so is probably just a bigot. 

Paige Bueckers will play without minutes restriction.
Ty Harris will miss the rest of the season.

Alyssa Thomas probable. 
Natasha Mack probable. 

McCowan, McConnell, and Copper all out. 

With Sloot done for the season, do we get a full effort rally from this Chicago squad? Feels like there would be so much on the shoulders of Van Lith and she has not been given many minutes this season so it's tough to assess. She was talking a big game post injury news at least. Of course Atkins can generate her own, but you have to assume they need some solid PG play tonight to stay within the number, despite the size. Sloot has been the engine. With Jones questionable, I suppose there is some opportunity for Cardoso and Reese to get busy on the boards but having a starter out tends to refocus these elite teams in games they could overlook. Nyara Sabally may not stretch the floor like Jones but she's also no slouch by my estimation. Really impressed me in her minutes last year during the Finals.

Don't see a whole lot that I love on today's card, but it does seem like both Brionna Jones and Aliyah Boston are set up to have pretty good games. 

Last I saw, Jones is questionable and Nyara Sabally is expected to play. 

Congratulations to Valkyries backers. Should have played my over hunch. Happy to see Plum and Salaun play well. 

@Moe_beatches13

 A lot of general talk here and not a lot about tonight specifically, but I still thank you for your response.

"If Plum has an off night, so go the sparks"
^ Golden State's leading scorer is Kayla Thornton at 13 a game. In addition to Plum, both Azura Stevens (14.6ppg) and Dearica Hamby (17.9ppg) easily clear this. Rickea Jackson is working through some stuff to start the season but averaged 13.4 as a rookie. Golden State has a more balanced attack, but the idea that LA can't win if Plum doesn't score simply isn't true. She had 11 in their most recent win and was only 4/9 from the floor, 1/4 from deep.

I also don't see any reason to think that Plum will struggle tonight:

As PNR Ball Handler, 7.5 points (28%), OPP D rank: 10th
Transition, 4.3 points (16%), OPP D rank: 11th
Spot Up, 3.1 points (11%), OPP D rank: 10th

Not to mention, 46% of her points scored from the field this season have been above the break 3s. Golden State is dead last in the league defending that space. She's had 3 straight below avg scoring games, especially from deep. Seems like a pretty good get right opportunity to me, playing at home against a very familiar opponent. 

@Moe_beatches13

 I find it very odd that you have 6 total posts and 3 of them are today preaching Valks win outright. Would you like to share your thinking with this pick?

Been thinking the same. BOL