Bridge1

^^ MARSHALL CONT'D .. 

Tony Gibson is a real legit defensive coach from NC State but problem 1 here is he's got very little talent or experience to work with.. they do have a CRAP LOAD of xfers from all over lotta G5 / FCS guys not a ton of experience or great PFF grades to point to and there are a few returning Marshall guys mostly from the 2-deep .. The potential big problem I see for this D is Tony gunna install his 3-3-5 which was a pretty highly sophisticated weapon at NC State the D really led the way for them over the years without much help from the offense most of the time .. I think Tony can get this Tiger turned around at some point he's not used to working under these conditions he had a great pipeline for developing players into his scheme at NC State replacing starters was never a big issue and he had real talent wanting to play for him .. 3-3-5 installments in year 1 always seem to be a struggle to find the right guys and get em trained up and there's no expectations year 1 other than find a group that can play and others worth developing .. and to do that you gotta play alot of folks and let em make mistakes .. very much a development year on this side and on offense too going from charles huff's air raid / run n shoot style to I guess a rich rod style read option and not a scheme expert but my guess is they didn't line up all the right personnel for either big shift .. We saw Miss St switch out of their air raid recently to more of a shotgun pro style offense after leach and the results werent good .. then changed again last year to a fast ucf explosive / tempo offense and the results werent good either .. Lot of changing and tinkering for The Herd and nobody's expecting much so development is the real goal this year..

Schedule has some winnable games but covering this win total means Marsh realllly needs to beat the FCS E.Kentucky Mizzoo State, @Mid-T and gotta be ready for them early this year .. and must win @G-State late in the year during a tough stretch of games .. EKY feels like a W but no way they don't smell FBS blood in the water and its a little team just down the road from them, they're showing up .. Mizzoo State actually has a good QB and I expect Mid T to be better after a real 'soul searcher' of a year LY and this is a good test for them and big win if they can take it .. Probably a dog going @G-State .. Marsh clears those they need 2 more conf and best bets are beating @Coastal?.. @App State?.. or ODU?... I have all them maybe not improving but none seem significantly worse off this year and I can't get close to 3 conf wins .. I think they lose to Mizzoo St or @MTSU or @G-State and this is over quick.

SEASON WINS

MARSHALL UNDER 5.5 -115 (MGM)

Took a small bite on this already and figured I must be kinda missing something or one of their SUN BELT opponents is a surprise stinker .. also really don't like going under on 5.5 making a bowl would be a great goal to hit for these guys .. but I really couldn't find the reason not to bet this one bigger and post it .. Phil putting em dead last #7 in the SBC East division kinda sealed the deal making it a play beyond GA State even and dead last in his conf unit rankings .. MGM prob not offering -115 now but plenty of -120's out there .. 

Pretty widely publicized exodus during bowl season led Marshall to cancel their sure thing destruction vs Army .. idk why they got rid of Charles Huff he just won them the conference and took half the SBC champ team with him so S.Miss .. The real travesty is S.Miss isin't on the schedule woulda been so great to have this game in Hattisburg or in Huntington mighta been even better showing up with their team and beating the pants off of em in their old stadium .. I don't see much to like on the Herd's roster Carlos Del Rio was a high rated recruit with good size but horrible passer and relegated to basically backup duty and got very little action as theres not much reason to develop the guy .. now if he's hitting 60+% this year could be an issue but my sense is he struggles to hit 50% .. Backup Zion Turner is more of the same ... this is a pretty unattractive sales pitch to any WR's in the portal and they got alot of career backups from all over who haven't played much, same for the OL and you got a RB in Tony Mathis but surprised how little action he saw at Houston LY .. new OC is Rod Smith who was Rich Rod's OC at JAX State and wth him at Arizona .. Rich Rod is an HC/OC/QB/OL do it all coach and I guess didn't see a need to take him to WV with him .. the good news is he was HC Tony Gibson's old teammate at Glenville State .. obvi that doesn't make me feel better about the hire.

CONF FUTURES

BAYLOR B12 CHAMPS 9-1 (ESPN)

Phil Steele special #1 .. We're seeing a few 8's and just the 1 9 out there still but I think we'll see those dwindle rather quick. I probably wasn't going to find a B12 conf future play I really liked in the top 5 or so team, for obvious reasons, we had the top and bottom of the conf switch sides last year and we're used to seeing the conference packed to the gills with teams that all rate in the same general area .. no surprises this year with B12 DOMINATING THE SP+ RATINGS with 8 teams in the 18-35 pre-ssn ranking demographic .. We played ASU 100-1 last year in some way for fun but we knew they'd be better and all they needed to do was be 'in the mix' for a shot ..

This year feels a little more certainty will befall the conf order although we def still have room to hit a true B12 wildcard, I just don't know which it will be yet .. But considering my Phil note above I think we can do this play we're getting 9-1 action on a team Phil believes lands in at least a tie at #1 with Utah and Iowa State this year. Utah I get he's gott'em up there most years, but Iowa State was a bit of a surprise, lot of books offering 12-1 or so basically where we played them last year .. imagine that BRIDGE ARMY DEVOTEES were sitting with 14-1 Clones and 100-1 Sun Devils tickets sippin tea for the B12 champ game lol .. I think Clones have a chance to make it back to the champ game, the schedule is not bad but I'm not sure they're really much better than last year with the 2 MAJOR WR's gone who they reallly needed in a few tough spots. The D had a few injuries at LB and that nearly cut them out of the running, got some guys back this year but I think depth has been a perpetual issue for the clones and been a real factor in them being so wildly hit and miss over the years .. I will say they were out-matched by ASU in the champ game completely and we see ASU is also very very high ret pro returning so the bar for 'how good' a team has to be really starts with the Devils again this year..

I'm gunna rely on Phil's eyes with Baylor we see his B12 projection page with Baylor #1 which is a decent deviation from where books rate them .. and he backs this up in the units chart with #1 and #2 rated units across the board outside of the DL at #6 and DB's at #5 .. still a pretty solid rating considering there's 16 in the conf .. And a quick review of the preview I like where they're headed on O/D and SP-Tms .. really like they have a very high rated backup QB in walker howard and while he'll be a downgrade from Robertson we do probably have someone who gives us an out incase of injury .. Surprised to see Phil has em up there with so much firepower but that's really what I'm looking for when making a Phil play .. out of the box, odds makers still behind .. inside scoop on a team or conf that I have less familiarity with .. and I have no prob tailing his idea and pounding the bears.. Won't be around long... GO BAYLOR!!

 PHIL STEELE NOTES .. 

Every year I get a gander at the new Steele Mag and I'll take a peek thru it lookin for some ideas.. In my opinion the best place to start is always on Phil's conf forecast page, the little preview before the team pages .. Besides the general reputation of being a great info source to uphold, Phil's BIG MAG BRAG is that of being "#1 MOST ACCURATE OVER 30 YEARS!!!" touted on the front cover and a 2 page spread early in the mag .. This rating is tracked by a pretty unassuming website stassn .com but they've done it a long time and on the one hand you have a gentleman's competition among the mag people that's kinda outside the public view, but also for Phil his brand really is promoted with the "most accurate mag" brag. We often see Phil in the team pages adding a charitable spin to a bad unit and have to read between the lines a little because he's got a great relationship with the coaches and gets their time / attn every yr so can't say what he really thinks .. But the gloves come off is in the conference order, and while I think an accurate take, still have to read between the lines a little. In the stassn preview competition it doesn't always pay to go wild on every whim or limb. Maybe for some mags who don't mind going bust trying to be 'the most accurate' a particular year, but Phil's approach you can tell is pretty measured and lands him close to #1 most years .. you'll def notice some interesting things in the conf order like an upstart team moved up a few spots where we expected or a better team a little further down but we do get some wild predictions sometimes .. 

B10, SEC rankings don't have much wild variability in previews or in reality. Last year Phil had Indy ranked #12 in the B1G last year, 5-6 ranks higher than many others putting them at the way bottom .. seeing Indy ranked higher along with reading a glowing preview meant we got a feeling he liked them ALOT more than his ranking indicated and understanding that there's no reason to risk a dramatic loss pumping up Indy's conf rank if the prediction works out Phil will be 5/6 points ahead of most others for the better pre-ssn placement .. Phil tied for 1st in the B10 rankings last year and that was rally his only 'out of the box' move .. if he had em near consensus he'd tie for 8th .. small move made a BIG diff .. 

Last year the B12 was easily the biggest DINGER to everyone's accuracy grade which makes alot of sense, ASU, BYU and think Baylor were all deep bottom dwellers .. CU was middle of the pack, ISU was buried behind a few teams, that was yer top 5 or so .. Utah and OK.ST was consensus #1 and 2 among the previews with AZ #4 and UCF up there too .. and there was your bottom 4 .. I get the sense when we see Phil's B12 ranking this year there won't think twice about where teams were ranked by other mags or anyone I'd go with my gut and stick to it based on the roster and schedule .. and think we see that .. Phil has 3 tied for #1 Baylor, Utah, Iowa State .. 3 tied for #4 ASU, K-ST, T-Tech .. #7 tie with BYU/TCU.. Doesn't seem THAT dramatic but def taking a risk here as I think most previews will have his 3-way #1 and 3-way #4 flip flopped completely.. we also see Cincy at a respectable #9 and bit of a surprise drop for Colorado at #12 .. def some kinda play in there for me maybe more than 1 .. 

BRIDGE PLAYS
S.CAROLINA / VA TECH +9.5
UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5
TENN / GEORGIA -5.5 WK3

SMALLER
KANSAS / FRESNO +14.5
MICH / OKLA -1.5 WK2
LSU / FLORIDA +7 WK3
UGA / FLORIDA +9.5 WK10
ALABAMA / LSU +6.5 WK11

FUN BETS
VA TECH ML/O45.5 +600
HAWAII ML / O52.5 +661
MICH -34.5 / U51.5 +407
PENN.ST -45.5 / U59.5 +466
MIZZ.ST +32.5 / O57.5 +320

SEASON WINS
PITT OVER 5.5 -150
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
MISSOURI OVER 7.5 +130
JAMES MAD OVER 7.5 -120
S.CAROLINA UNDER 7.5 -110
TENNESSEE UNDER 8.5 +100
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120
BYU UNDER 8.5 -157

CONF FUTURES
PITT 80-1
UTSA 8.5-1 
TULSA 300-1 
MISSOURI 50-1
VIRGINIA 200-1

HEISMAN
DEVON DAMPIER 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 300-1
BLAKE HORVATH 500-1 

CONF FUTURES

PITT ACC CHAMP 80-1 (MGM)

FAN at 38-1, MGM was 100-1 but pulled a fast one with the very low limit and let me finally take er for real at the 80 spot .. they usually aren't bait and switch used car salesmen but they had easily the longest odds, always a good book to browse .. Point is shop around its a legit long shot .. But see above I like the prospects of a big turn on offense and just browsing Phil Steele now to get his take I like we're on the same page w these guys.

Very tough to ARRIVE at a sure thing conf contender for this team, quite a few 'it could happen' things need to become 'it did happen!!!' and a little luck on top of that .. But we get those things and I think you got a team that can probably get the conf run kicked off by beating Ville at home off a bye and need to run thru the lesser comp in a decently tough mid ssn stretch of conf games .. but yer tough stuff is NC State at home and @FSU in that slate and I have the real tricky spot @Stan for them and that's a good team to have in a tough spot .. Gotta get to the big finale with a legit capable team, off a bye we get ND at home and man you hope they manage the risk there because @GT on deck is in a tricky spot off @BC and befor etheir BIG UGA showdown which if I had to say conf champ shot or beat UGA I know which they'd take .. just very possible a good GT team is not throwing their best heat in that spot .. and the finale Miami at home is one of the nastiest ugliest spots on the CFB schedule for the canes with SO MANY tough opponents and tough spots possible they throw in the towel early vs a Pitt tm 1 win away from punching their ACC Champ Gm ticket. The potential big turnaround w good schedule setup means we can take a long shot ACC play and not feel too bad if it blows up early. Obvi need to beat Clem or SMU maybe in the finale but Pitt should be lookin legit capable if they make it and doubt they'll be massive dogs and won't be needing a miracle or get 5 cents on the dollar to hedge. 

I did also like Duke 25-30x for a longer shot champ run at first, we look at last year and think if they did get a lucky string of wins but did it with maybe the worst run game in the power 4 maybe worst nationally and just 3 yds / carry under 100 yds so many games 1200 rush and pass game did just enough with the D to win games.. just an avg run game and mighta contended with GT or Miami and prob beat SMU very close IMO making a surprise champ game appearance .. the D is tough again and have a total ACE in Mensah. But I don't see the run game improvement losing star thomas, still just a few OL's in the unit outside the true FR, the line had zero injuries last year very lucky.. and a tricky schedule with the tough start then tricky b2b road stint @cuse @cal .. very likely loss @clem is baked in .. they go b2b roadies @Conn I can't even do the RSW with that game sitting there before they gotta clean up UVA, @UNC a big nasty revenge spot for the heels .. even finale home vs Wake is a rivalry they'll be showing up at least. roster issues and schedule is tough and covert nasty spots, want 50 or 60x to take a stab.

But yeah big picture in the ACC I think we got lot of improvement and tough enough squads that its possible we don't end up w the 2 truly best teams .. Clem, SMU, Miami, Ville are the headliners but gotta love GT too and Pitt, Duke even VT could cause trouble, FSU / UNC sound like pretty big wildcards, NC State I lean down but def can throw a punch and knock a contender out, UVA has the potential and the schedule to be interesting. Cuse, Cal, BC, Wake, Stan seem like duds but one or two of them can win a big game this year things gunna be pretty wild in the ACC very open for a long shot IMO. Hence looking close at schedules when making plays like the Pitt Bomb and of course the UVA Hydrogen Bomb lol .. GO PANTHERS!!

^^ PITT CONT'D .. 

The D is really less concerning you hope the new guys aren't bad but given the heavy hitters coming back you'd expect Narduzzi to have them in great shape .. 2 AA LB's sitting in a unit that is the bread and butter of the D .. other units don't have glaring issues and we might get surprise production from DE with Nate Temple returning he was OFY last year before the ssn kicked off .. they do lose a MAJOR ACE KICKER if they kept him I would have never hesitated playing this one .. gotta x fingers there they did bring in a good one from the FCS so just gotta hope the lights aren't too bright for him..

Think we're getting a decent deal for Pitt with anything 6 wins or better schedule lines up nice with FCS Duquesne, C.Mich and BACK YD BRAWL @WV .. can't take such a massive rivalry or the big RICH ROD RETURN for granted but I do gotta like Pitt -1.5 GOY with a sure thing solid run D on our side because WV might end up like an academy on offense w how much I expect they run the ball this yr.. BC, @FSU, @Cuse, NC State @STAN .. I think Pitt has 8 they are at worst a tossup in maybe dog @FSU but they win that I think we make 6 wins easy .. @Stan is actually the real tricky spot going x country after 6 str conf games, Tree is a good team to have in their nasty spot .. Also got Ville at home early we'll know if this team is a contender in that one .. besides them all the VERY TOUGH stuff comes at the end .. off a bye ND feels like an L even at home .. they go @GT and catch them between a trip @BC and their superbowl finale with UGA .. very tricky spot for the Jackets .. Miami in the home finale and man o man Miami closes the year off a bye vs VILLE, STAN, @SMU, CUSE, NC.ST, @VT, @PITT .. 7 straight conf games capped by B2B tough (and very cold) roadies .. I think there's a couple of L's in there for the canes and with ND, FLA @FSU, VILLE, @SMU even the spot @VT is very tricky like we might see Miami more/less done for the year and bunch of turf toe doctors notes flood in for that last week .. oof ugly spot for them. If Pitt can turn it and stay healthy then very possible those final 2 big games are their conf ticket and really got their big opponents in tough spots so .. might be more than season win shoppin for ... GO PANTHERS!!

SEASON WINS

PITT OVER 5.5 -150 (ESPN)

Pitt was THE BRIDGE ARMY's lone RSW loss last year taking them under 5.5 and proceeding in horror to watch them rattle off 7 straight wins to start the season including 2 unbelievable comeback wins vs Cincy and WV .. Cincy was a real 'Choke of the Year' candidate as they had it locked up 27-6 in the 3rd .. WV up 10 in the final minutes blows it, both hit 97% win prob late in the ESPN win % thing .. Cal +2 in TO's with yardage edge and 9 more first downs couldn't figure it out 15-17 loss .. then they proceed to lose their final 5 in a row plus the bowl to Toledo .. still gets me .. In fairness if Pitt was healthy last year they might hit the 6 win mark anyway but just a massive rash of injuries on the OL with low quality backups coming in .. QB Holstein played pretty well, big recruit I think at Bama wanted to play early got more than he could handle the OL and kept playing with repeated injuries dampened his abilities and finally went out for good early vs Ville .. the season already going not great went terrible 43 sacks given up on the year is more than the MAJOR HAVOC MACHINES theyve got on D were able to dish out .. 

What we didn't like last year was it felt like a very fresh team had to come together under new OC Kirwin Bell coming in from FCS W.CAR .. the offense had maybe the worst spring game I'd ever seen with like 19/20 plays getting BLOWN UP and it looked like a really tough time coming and kinda shocked how they were able to pull brute force comeback wins early and then play a few decent all around games before things wet haywire w injuries  .. also the D suffered injuries and very late Xfers but man they pulled it together very well and have some major dudes in the LB and lot to like up front lot of havoc and very decent run D 3.2 yds / rush in conf some legit shut down games .. The D has alot back lot of the heavy hitters and looks primed for improvement .. Offensively I think it lines up where kinda all the keys could turn with a fresh start and better health in year 2 of Bell's system .. better OL play activates a potential very strong run game between Holstein's legs and REID really is an every down back seeing him take over the bowl and 1k yds rush on the year w 580 rec he's a total weapon .. Run game could ignite and hard to gauge the quality of the WR unit it's not an all con lineup but all in this could be a real surprise offense .. the sentiments are that it was a major stinker but even w the new system and inexperience and critical injuries, a hit and miss run game they still were up close to 2 TD's better per game last year, '23 had like 8 games 21 points or less last year diff story and nearly beat Clem late ssn 20-24 loss .. a major improvement but one thats easy to overlook.

^^ UTSA CONT'D

Defense under performed last year and some concerns as some of the big multi-year heavy hitters have moved on .. Each unit takes a hit but the thing about UTSA is they recruit pretty well and an attractive portal spot and tend to retain alot of their best players.. they lost 4 off the D to the portal but weren't picked apart .. Jeff Traylor also known for getting backups a heavy dose of reps, not just garbage time, so outside of LB the units still have 40 or 50% of their reps returning with multiple players ready to step up, some seeing multiple years of action already .. The D losses is def a reason we're getting 8.5x instead of 3 to 4x we've seen last 2 yrs that comes with a top tier AAC pre-ssn billing .. I get alot of comfort though knowing Traylor and the DC are solid at developing the players .. and very adept at taking breakout G5 stars .. LB looks gutted in experience but we got 2 4 star bama backups and shad banks from TCU a former starter there all taking redshirts, angling for big senior years they might not have had if playing last year ..  Solid pass rush LB from FCS ETSU .. that unit is glaring and thin on numbers but the BIG potential might make it a top unit on the D .. We def need to X our fingers a little bit with the lack of sure things but the trust is there with the DC, they've out performed most years and there's no shortage of talent and experience to do that again.

Roadrunners also rarely field a BAD special teams unit placing top 50 last year and 30ish the prev 2 years .. sign of good smart coaching when you don't forget that 1/3rd of the game because ST's ends up deciding numerous games every year .. they lose the ace kicker to Oklahoma but I can trust them more than others .. maybe the concern is less depth on D = lower quality special teams .. another area we're hoping stays strong .. 

The schedule is def one they can make the champ game you got roadies @Temple, @Char, @SFLA .. @N.Texas looks like the toughest roadie they were a thorn in the RR's side a couple times back to their CUSA days.. Home stints vs Tulane, ECU, Army, Rice .. The Roadrunner Dome is a good HFA and I'm not sure about Rice but I'd say all the tough stuff does come at home and I'd also say Wave, Cadets and Pirates are each in decline this year, whereas the RR's I think very good chance to for a big boomerang improvement year .. and whether or not its champ grade they can at least eek into the champ game w this schedule and line up some kinda payday for us .. best case scenario is they are turned around and get the champ game at home in the Alamo Dome where they're 2-0 in champ games in '21/22 ..

GO ROADRUNNERS!!!

AAC CHAMPS

UTSA 8.5-1 (CZR)

Doubt CZR keeps this up with quite a few 6 and 6.5's out there's higher out there and would look sooner than later as I think this could fall into the 5's and maybe 4's as the season nears.. I don't hate it at 6 but 8 or 8.5 is a solid playable number for this team when I don't see a sure thing immovable force at the top of the conf once again this year .. Possible that Navy could be the next Army but they could also just still be Navy lol .. 

Lotta hype with the team going into the AAC in 2023 and nearly ran the table but fell to a tough Tulane team on the road in the season finale as a small fav but 5 turnovers later they're 7-1 and out of the champ game. Fast fwd to LY we had a good looking pre-ssn roster stout D, McCown was a decent enough QB and just proceeded to fall apart, didn't smoke Kennesaw, got REDRUM'D by TX State, 10 pt loss @ECU. Then the real slide lost @Rice by 2, rock bottom loss to tulsa blowing a 35-7 lead at home. teams quit usually quit at that pt but these guy stayed in and a pretty solid Memphis tm, streaky N.Texas, slammed Temple to secure a bowl and then played an incredibly hard fought game @Army in the finale losing 24-29. in conf + 1.5 yds/run, 60% to 54% pass comps, +96 yds/gm over opponents. Somehow 4-4. Maybe a 'get it right' year comin.

QB we like McCown with a full year under his belt .. comp rate 60% accurate 73% so room for WR's to help him this year .. really limits the bad plays 11% the fumbles, picks and penalties .. They have a talented backup from FCS Bama State whose a bit of a wildcard but could be trouble if McCown goes down .. 

RB - Robert Henry took over the spot last year and they add John Emery from LSU .. oft injured but #1RB outta HS 99 rating, last chance U time for him .. a few other exp bups and prospects hopefully makes this the unit that underperformed last year.

WR - Lose one of the starters but the best of the unit returns .. McCuin is solid and Amador looks like a major breakout dude this year .. could finally see De'corian Clark back .. DJ Allen was a 4 star player injured 6 games in ready to break out .. AJ Wilson was an FCS Dude a few more potential breakout prospects in a crowded unit 

TE - Lose multi-yr All-Con Oscar Cardenas but he split time with Houston Thomas who was way more productive in w 470 yds and the unit has 3 to like with Overmeyer another solid dude and Dishman who added another 450 yds from this position and got good blocking out of each of em .. 3 deep in a very key unit for this offense .. 

OL - Lost one starter but essentially have 6 returning who have been with the program at least 1 year .. 2 exp backups and 6 more prospects outside any true fr / walkons .. This was a unit that gets blamed for the poor run game we hope to see that turn around big this year .. 

Big picture this side of the ball has been on a slide since Stein left for Oregon .. in CUSA Traylor had OC's like Barry Lunny (ILL now) and Will Stein (Oregon) for the offensive bonanzas en route to those B2B CUSA champ years .. But its just not the same w out them even w most of the same players when they came to the AAC .. Coaches really matter .. We really need the OC to step it up now in his 3rd year of a pretty disappointing slide but I think its the best overall offensive units they've had and McCown is def ready for a nationally recognized breakout season.

SMALLER

MICH / OKLAHOMA -1.5 (BOL)

Yeah Uni sorry man nothing you said but its been on my to do list .. agree with you Chip is a big change and I saw the spring game so mm yeah the Mich D is gunna be all around pretty awesome again and major key to them having this go their way .. that said man o man the DL tandem were pure havoc last year winning em games and OU got a nasty bunch up front once again .. Venables at home with a D vs Chip and the new QB early in the season is one I can do pre-ssn laying the 1.5 .. Flip side its tough to say for sure if Venables will have his offense ready .. Last year we knew there were OL issues going into the season and then its just one WR after another in a good pre season unit goes on the injury list.. I liked Venables approach to gutting the roster when he took over trading his new recruits for cruddy B12 upper classmen and as expected those years were tough. Not a surprise we look at Venables with a great deal of skepticism whether he can put 2 sides of the ball together at the same time but nothing that happened before really feels like a surprise when we look back on their situations .. and attempt 2 now with a new group of targets, great OL coach, John "Runs Like A Deere" Mateer and his OC and decent RB corps led by J-OTT gives us alot to like.. if we flipped offensive rosters I think you'd see UM layin some decent points on the road so its not some unfounded bias that we like OU's prospects on that side of the ball this year .. Big early matchup with the Wolvos in Norman also feels like a MAJOR 'exorcise those demons' kinda game and whatever punch they got is def one we'll see here .. Would be a massive shock to the SEC if UM marched in punched em in the face and walked out and for me too .. 

Why lay it now because I def can't lay it -3 and I do think this will inch up that way .. hard to go much higher than that but -3.5 or -4 by kickoff wouldn't surprise me all things staying equal to that point .. and Its a game were basically saying its an even match played at OU and maybe OU doesn't have the better all around team later in the year but week 2 I think its a good spot to catch UM still workin things out a bit w the QB / new OC and could certainly be an issue in that stadium.. 

Good luck! 

@UNIMAN

Dude I mean Tenn could very well show up with some power in that game its at home .. but just maaan one of the things I key on is teams picking their spots and this is still a year UGA can compete for a natty and I just don't see Tenn trying this year .. and it makes sense to me that they wouldn't push hard for a repeat this year .. lotta young talent to develop no need to pay for a one year superstar .. same for SCAR and that one realllllly makes sense they were total DOG SH!T 2 seasons ago and lost so much MAJOR talent and you see them taking on true FR and limited portal no need to push hard trying to replace there's just no way to do that, plenty of FR and Sophs to work on and next year Stewart can't go pro so they gotta pay him this yr and next and La Norris sure seems on board to stick it out with like no new WR's in the door if they wanted a chance they'd need a sure thing RB not pending waivers and some sure thing WR's at a minimum before addressing all the D losses lol ..

we talked about the same sitch w Mich last year .. nearly hit the Mich Par-Fade 7 team GOY fade-o-rama .. 

Clue me in on the wolvos man .. does it feel like they're taking a shot this year? .. it feels like steady improvement you got your future QB now what year do you launch a natty run, it doesn't feel like this year but next yr and maybe year after they'll be locked n loaded and plugging all the gaps via the portal .. just my take, I'm not going win total over but def not trying to fade em this year .. - good luck UNI

FUN BET 

VA TECH ML/O45.5 +600

WR sitch is iffy but I like the 2 dynamic dual threat QB's squaring off here .. besides the massive losses on D SCAR also loses their really awesome punter who was such a problem pinning teams deep and making em march vs a bunch of NFL havoc machines .. probably not the case this year I see each team having one sure thing star on D and likely some decent players or units but it looks more than navigable for both teams .. we saw VA Tech faced plenty of havoc makers vs Miami and every game drones was in and healthy total went way over last year .. SCAR was held to a low total vs Ole Miss and Clemson but it aint gunna be that kinda party .. I think total 45.5 is not a bad play either but big picture we have the potential for one or both of the offenses to find ways of stalling out and just gunna put the total in the fun bet .. for now lol.. I will say though with so much gone on SCAR the books are relying on alot of pre-ssn rankings and espn taking heads and other hot air to make the total this low and I could see this being a bit of a back n forth game in the dome.. hope it comes down to a late FG because Tech has a real sharp shootin ace .. - good luck! 

BRIDGE PLAY

S.CAROLINA / VA TECH +9.5

Its not the biggest BP out there I do kinda wanna hold on and see if this moves to +10 since we just had a bunch of SEC Propaganda ratings putting SCAR in the top 15 .. possible SCAR is decently better than VT but Neutral site week 1, SCAR off their best season in some time, VT off a MASSIVE disappointing year they were supposed to make a conf run .. SP+ makes it 12 points I think VT is probably underrated after the injury-laden end to last year and SCAR also looks overrated in SP+ sitting next to OU, Florida, TAMU and ahead of Mizz, Aub .. I think SP has SCAR as many as 10 points too high the offense really wasn't great last year, didn't bolster the areas needing improvement, seeing numerous depth / injury risks, just not much improvement on an already iffy offense .. the D looks like a shell of itself with MAJOR PRODUCTION DUDES gone, see the RSW play write up for more w that .. #35 offense last year and #33 pre-ssn, not convinced they were really even that high last year and maybe they match that but couple reasons they might take a dip too .. 

I really like Kyron Drones returning he got injured late last year and team left a bad taste w everyone. Sellers maybe more productive but Drones isin't far off when he was healthy and if the SCAR D takes the decent dive we expect think he'll be productive in this game, I also like his lower sack rate ..  There's Legit concerns in losing Bhayshul Tuten but unit to unit I'll take VA Tech's Braydon Bennett and Terion Stewart and their soph prospects vs Addaway and Faison, whose still pending a waiver!!, and very limited depth behind them.. Neither WR unit looks great i'll give the edge to SCAR but there's not much to like with them and think you have a few decent breakout prospects on VT.. TE let's see what Dingle can do for SCAR he must be productive .. we have a sure thing in Benji Gosnell and a backup think units matchup well .. SCAR with more exp at OL but again 41 sacks last year .. as many as they dished out.. its potential trouble for both with very similar sorta QB that can escape pressure and make plays ..

On D we we got 2 big stars with Dillon Stewart at SCAR and Ben Bell on VA Tech .. both are havoc machines and will cause trouble .. Think we have capable units on both teams but VA Tech really wins on experience albeit some of theirs comes from G5 xfers .. I will say they got some G5 dudes with solid PFF grades and none of the units look problematic or have a glaring depth issue .. SCAR might be a little thin at LB and Safety ..

And my favorite part .. VA Tech with a MAJOR ACE KICKER in John Love and nothing I like more than me having a Sharp Shooter on my team esp in a dome and other team is breaking in a new ST unit. Johnny BOOMHAMMER last 2 yrs is 11/11 from 20-29 yds, 13/15 from 30-39 .. 11/12 from 40-49 .. 3-5 from 50+.. 89-89 Extra pts, good as it gets .. down 10 late and need a 3 pointer he's our dude .. or ..maybe a game winner?..

Big picture I think the considerations around 'reloading' in the SEC are wayyyy different than for VA Tech this year .. Tech really needed guys in the door that could play and went out and got some .. SCAR looks like they are building for the future with recruiting true freshman and there's quite a few units where if they wanted to even attempt to improve they needed xfers in the door this year at WR, OL, LB, SAF.. we see alot of walk-on's in units that need contributors and it tells me this isin't a year their trying to BET BIG on themselves and we prob see them develop their true FR/SOPHS and make a portal splash next yr while keeping stars like Stewart and LaNorris on the roster and another competitive SEC team .. same thing with Tenn it feels like they're def picking their spots and this year aint their spot ..

^^ SCAR CONT'D 

The D overall could be / should be decent, the problem is the QTY and quantity of MAJOR DUDES lost. I see 9 NFL caliber guys gone, 2 more heavy contribs, 5 xfers out we'd see as competing this yr. There's still plenty of exp and talent but you go from NFL Units to Dylan Stewart as really the only sure thing ACE and he def wasn't a one man show last year. Interior DL is the biggest hit unit need everyone to step up major to sniff the 84 pressures and 12 sacks they got LY. Kennard was another 40 pressures and 10 sacks off the edge. LB Unit loses 90 stops from 3 dudes, nobody has any real exp in the unit. Lost best cover guys Emmanowori and Fortune and their 9 INT's. CB should be fine overall, safety looks iffy and not deep. Iffy DL/LB/SAF which comes when SEC D's are loading up. #1 force fumbles w 19, vs conf #6 in sacks 3.5/gm, top 15 in conf 3rd downs 31% conv, top 15 red zone in TD scores just 50%, they were tough and reliable in every way, we'll see what the encore looks like.

Maybe the "kicker" here is special teams they had a MAJOR DUDE punter in Kai Kroeger 2x All Con, 48 yd average, such a deadly combo to pin a team back and make em drive it vs such a stacked D. Decent kicker gone too, tough to tell what they got now.

One of the things we liked last year was SCAR's schedule landed them in some really tricky spots for opponents .. tricky down spots / sandwich spots for Mizoo, TAMU and TAMU were all in ugly spots and was 2 easy wins and eek'd out a W vs Mizzoo and all part of their big string of wins down the stretch .. prob have a diff win total if 1, certainly if 2 of those are L's .. this year not the same they still get Oklahoma in a UT/Ole Miss sandwich spot but they had 4 SEC sandwich spots last year to just 1 this time.. they catch bama at home after their vols game, but otherwise 2 SEC teams off a bye this year really none last yr .. 

To hit this win total SCAR prob needs to go 5-0 starting vs VT neutral site benz week 1 .. home gms vs the FCS team, Vandy, Kentucky, and Coastal .. Looking over VT, Vandy, UK I think their rosters stack up decently enough and they'll need this win to make a bowl .. UK bringing in Calzada I think gives them a real chance, def taking a look at VT catching 9.5 in a neut site .. Vandy upset mightnot even be an upset when we look back on the season .. Coastal in a funny spot between @TAMU and CLEM I like Coastal to be improved and in-state little team will be showing up for a big signature win .. SCAR gotta beat them and then gotta then win 3 of 7 tough ones @MIZZ, @LSU, OU, BAMA, @MISS, @TAMU, CLEM. Think each are improved this year other than Ole Miss but their offense is still very strong .. and still lotta payback / revenge spots 4 tough roadies, SCAR will be squarely on teams' radar this year and it'll be a must win for any of them to make a playoff run .. I think they lose one or two easy ones and we're cashing this early .. 

SSN WINS

SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER 7.5 -110 (CZR)

We took S.CAR last year over 5.5 after a couple years of being a bit over hyped with Spencer Rattler they had a couple good players around him but beyond that the offensive units were in trouble .. they had a very banged up OL heading into the '23 season and no ability to run the ball 1k total rush yds that year. Rattler was running for his life every game 41 sacks 2x what their D dished out .. and just one WR getting targeted Xavier Legette with 1200 yds rec the TE was next up with 300 .. Rattler's nearly 70% comp rate barely eeked them out to 5 mostly ugly wins vs crap competition, that and the D was actually not terrible pinning a few teams down 3.7 yds/run and 61% pass comps, not bad numbers overall but easy to ignore.

Last yr they lost Rattler, the one WR, good TE, the RB xferred looked real bad.. Got a look at La Norris and liked the potential esp as a run threat. Add a legit SEC feature RB in Rocket Sanders and at least a shot w a healthy OL. No sure thing WR's but had a few options. Def a roll of the dice on O last yr but the dice weren't loaded and RSW 5.5 w Beamer needing to make a bowl and prove competitive in the SEC or he was outta there. The BIG potential was the D we knew D-STEW was a shock and awe FR but every unit was legit dude filled and deep. Avg units would work and we got well above that SP+#13 D every unit was delivered, DL WAS KILLER. and we went from 1k rush to 2400 w efficient passing 65% comps. I had doubts wk 1 vs ODU lol but down the stretch last year woulda been a dangerous playoff team. SP+ ranked 51 in '23 to #14 last year w massive 13 point power rtg bump. 

The stuff to like this year is very media poll friendly, SCAR ROMPED down the stretch and the QB and D-STEW returning gives the SEC propaganda dept plenty to dish on. We actually have a ton of DUDES lost and some supporting cast, like DUDE RB Rocket Sanders. Adaway is at least a downgrade and Rahsul Faison likely an SEC level stud but still pending a waiver for this ssn. Unit has real depth probs and if he doesn't get cleared mark RB code red and unlikely to be as strong regardless.

WR had no real standouts last yr nobody over 400 yds 6 players sharing the targets, lose 2 of their better ones, good true FR class but NO xfers in the door. 5 Star 2X #1 Freaks List Nyck Harbor 375 yds total in unit with no real standouts like man-o-man that is not working out. It's a better position than they were in last year but they got a long way to go and just seems like if SCAR was serious about improving on last year WR was a MASSIVE GLARING ISSUE that would have to be fixed by the portal. Might need Luke Doty to step up in his 10th year. 

TE Josh Simon 40 rec 520 yds was the top rec target off to the pros. I like adding Jordan Dingleberry from UK see if he can shine with a real QB and a good soph prospect backup. Dingle MUST have a huge breakout year as a rec target, the blocking wasn't well rated by PFF by anyone in the unit last year, there's no big TE over 250 lbs so need production in a big way. Dingle injury is a code red for this unit.

OL Lose 3 str 2 with a solid PFF rating. 3 xfer starters come in from Troy/Wake/WKY hard to say if they'll mesh. SCAR gave up 41 sacks LY as many as they dished out. lotta room for improvement. But still have net loss of numbers with 5 other bups out the door. 13 in the unit before we get to true fr, 4 walk-ons. With teams shedding walk-ons for the 105 roster rules I can only spec why SCAR has so many at a must improve pos. Same w WR, if SCAR wanted to make a jump they needed those filled w quality depth. Think the wrong injury maybe an ugly set back.

SMALLER (GOY)

LSU / FLORIDA +7 WK3
UGA / FLORIDA +9.5 WK10
ALABAMA / LSU +6.5 WK11

Florida certainly on my major improved list and think LSU will be very good again this year .. both coaches need to show us something this year, if you can't leave this year smelling a strong natty run in 2026 then its probably time to change things up .. they both look like potential contenders this year

I could nitpick some things about LSU's DL and the OL has to have questions after losing the unit that's been such a rock for them last 2 years .. but I see both as taking a shot this year LSU ignored the portal last year and we liked them to fall short of their season win total .. think they got lucky to get close but they did fall short esp when we consider they didn't really find a reliable RB till late in the year, Hilton at WR got hurt after 6 games, Harold Perkins OFY 4 games in, secondary and DL were very inexp work in progress not bolstered with portal help .. diff story this year, for the Tigers they found their RB in the true FR Durham over 1k all purpose yds is a feature SEC RB and the true FR blue chipper Harlem Berry made a big splash in the spring, maybe a real THAT DUDE true FR year for him .. WR looks maybe stronger with some of the adds, wanna see what Barrion Brown can do in a real offense .. TE won't be a big drop off missing Mason Taylor, Unit is loaded but maybe elite loaded this year if Desmond Green gets the breakout yr we expected 2 yrs ago .. OL fingers XX'd the talent is there but can see OL-T's might be an issue.

LSU D goes from injury-laden struggle session to maybe a surprise unit .. great tandem in LB's Weeks, hope to see Perkins live out his potential more as a pass rushing havoc machine OLB but the unit is has good exp and stars and up n comers.. Safety looks good AJ Haulcy and Tamarcus Cooley toppling over the 2 ret starters, th soph Spears maybe rounds out an elite unit with 3 high rated prospects beyond them before you get to the FR.. CB Ashton Stamps 14 PBU's LY could see a real deal breakout year .. DE got a major boost with 3 solids and I mean its a D that I can see the potential with the star power and some depth .. its not a sure thing win them games D but the D especially is that of a team ready to take a playoff shot this year.

Florida same kinda thing major big breakout year expected maybe a huge surprise on D and maybe the best rush attack in the SEC .. won't go bit by bit but the profile of this team with the all around major breakout potential is one I'm in a rush to lay points against even if the schedule is just pure nasty again and might have trouble making the playoffs, think they are a very underrated group coming into this year ..

 - Considering LSU might not be squared away in the trenches i'm def good to take a free 7 pts with the Gators on the road particularly with this big rivalry. FLA is showin up to their first big game of the year catchin a TD w no good tape for LSU to go on. 

 - If there's one game Florida has circled blood red its UGA both teams off a bye on a neutral site. even if Billy can't slay the dragon his job might teeter on this looking winnable haven't really sniffed a W since covid year. Last yr Lagway just 1 gm as the str goes down early, 3rd guy was hapless and being out-yarded 450 to 230 Fla tied it up 20-20 late in the gm.. UGA with 24 points off of short fields incl game clincher punt blk quick TD and fumble for a 7 yds TD .. gators +9.5 want another shot at them baaaad .. 

 - And my least fav of these is +6.5 LSU at bama they're both off the bye week Bama routed em by 29 points last year Tide rolled em for 311 on the ground at home, like major major all systems go tooth and nail revenge spot .. prefer to have a full 7 obviously ..

BRIDGE PLAY (GOY)

TENN / GEORGIA -5.5 WK 3 (BOL)

IDK when folks will come to their senses on the Vols I think were getting major marketing hype on what is gunna be a mulligan year in Rocky Top .. lotta hype about how much better Joey Aggs is at QB than Nico .. if true then why in the world would anyone pay a dime for QB's outta HS .. Joey had a really great year w Appy in 2023 63% 33-10 but 24 BTT 26 TWP's so pretty lucky low INT number but significant decline in comp % vs stepped up competition UNC 51% comp 55% vs Wyo, a few 3+ sack gms. 2024 56% comp on the ssn 23 TD's 14 picks. No playing hurt injury to point to. Joey Dimes became loose change on the road int's and sacks at the SBC level. Only 2 gms over 60% vs G-St, @ECU a prob for him all year at the G5 level. Terrible gm @ULL 48% 4 picks .. can't compare his outting vs Clem, totally mismatched tms, but game was over in 2 mins CLEM ROUTE .. but with no pressure to win and literally just 1 pressure by Clem he's hitting 44% for 215 yds 1 run 4 yds. Won't be living in a clean pocket like that next yr.

Really nothing to point at where I can say Joey can make this kinda big step up and the 'he's better' hype doesn't come from seeing him in any spring games at the P5 level. I think dude is gunna get eaten alive in the SEC but certainly by Kirby in his first BIG game, at home or anywhere .. Rest of Tenn isin't inspiring losing an ALL WORLD RB who was their entire unit and just not seein a real reload there with Star Thomas and last year's backups its a big downgraded unit for me.. That will put alot more pressure on the QB who won't have as much to work with based on the WR and OL unit not bringing in a big portal haul .. ton of true sophs need to step up in a MAJOR way on offense.

Vols D overall seems decently solid up front even with the loss of multiple major dudes, but that unit was the jewel of a D that made them next level SEC competitive and 3 productive DL's out and James Pearce with 55 press / 8 sacks was the production off the edge ..  Just unlikley it carries wins on its own like we saw on the road vs OU last yr . Secondary has an ACE in CB Jermond Mccoy .. Saf unit gets Jourdan back OFY last fall proj str but unit had 3 guys leave post spr, the heavy rotating backups and a decent prospect Jourdan gotta be back full go starter dude with this inexperienced and thin unit. LB has 2 starters back but lost Pili mid ssn and their depth to the portal is a thin maybe iffy unit .. I count 2 xfers in across the D this yr so that should tell us something about how much they want to bet on themselves this year.

As for UGA they're off a pretty salty year having "ONLY" beat texas twice and won the conference because felt to me like they know they werent far off from making that champ game and having a decent enough shot at the natty last year .. this isin't the SUPER TEAM UGA with 4/5 star depth at every unit but man it is a legit natty contending roster and we have GUN-STOCK with major big game experience and didn't look all that bad after being thrust into the big spotlight last yr .. got a year off to fix injury situations on their OL the unit could achieve what they were projected to last year .. the TE unit looks like another #1 CFB unit .. the WR unit looks like a serious step up and maybe not utilized as they could be w other OC's but it's dude filled unit .. D looks Kirby grade .. UGA enters this game having played nobody and wouldn't surprise me if Tenn has to hand Kirby some good game tape vs Cuse .. I think UGA might really gut these guys no prob layin pts in this one .. Also think the hype could wear off on Tenn pre-ssn and this moves over a TD .. could see Vols expose some weakness vs Cuse and one way or another I think this line nears 10 or so by kickoff so playin early .. 

BRIDGE PLAY
UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5

SMALLER
KANSAS / FRESNO +14.5

FUN BETS
HAWAII ML / O52.5 +661
MICH -34.5 / U51.5 +407
PENN.ST -45.5 / U59.5 +466
MIZZ.ST +32.5 / O57.5 +320

SEASON WINS
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
MISSOURI OVER 7.5 +130
JAMES MAD OVER 7.5 -120
TENNESSEE UNDER 8.5 +100
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120
BYU UNDER 8.5 -157

CONF FUTURES
TULSA 300-1 
MISSOURI 50-1
VIRGINIA 200-1

HEISMAN
DEVON DAMPIER 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 300-1
ADD: BLAKE HORVATH 500-1 (CIRCA)

CONF FUTURES

MISSOURI 50-1

For reasons stated above and think Zoo is easy to overlook this year, we have the general bias of them not being a conf contender since the first couple years of joining the conference .. and didn't meet expectations last year at a time they had the hype and momentum .. we note some of the reasons for that above and biggest things for me were QB wasn't truly ever that great a passer or dynamic dual threat gamer to begin with .. then tack on the loss of a sure thing RB like Schraeder replaced by a tandem that weren't good .. QB injury / playing hurt down the stretch at a very critical point in the season and Cook's numbers fell off considerably especially in his ability to pick up yards on the ground, went from consistent contributor able to snag first downs to lucky to not end with net negative sack yards .. offense really struggled to produce esp later on .. QB's had 5 games connecting under 55% some down in the 40's .. still managed to squeeek by in a few games but clearly everyone looking at the offense thinking something aint right here with the elite WR unit being so unproductive .. still managed 9 wins and if they eek out that 10th win vs S.Car these odds are different maybe 25-1 .

We're hoping the element of surprise shows up with the Pribula / Hardy tandem and maybe turns in one of the more dynamic ground games in the SEC and open the door to more opportunities passing .. tape is limited but the DUDE potential is really strong with him .. Hardy sporting the Soph Jeanty stats as a true FR, esp the breaking tackle ability and the really untapped potential as a receiving option .. 9 brk tkl on 8 receptions w ULM who didn't do much passing and with him around didn't need to .. major potential dynamic tandem could make Mizzoo dangerous in a way we haven't seen before .. Defense seems like a real surprise very buttoned up and model won't catch up till the season gets going .. very similar vibe there to what I was thinking with S.CAR last year with a massively improved D with all units in the top half of the SEC .. Tigers much more proven and situated to make a splash on D than the cocks were IMO .. 

And the schedule really gives em a shot with the toughest stuff vs Bama at home, but I mark the spot as being great for Mizzoo and horroble for the Tide, one of the strongest spots on the CFB schedule very good shot to beat them .. and that's a real key as it could come down to a tiebreaker rules in conference, Tigers will be holding a great hand if they already punch Bama's ticket ... they do get Auburn in one of the most horrible spots .. maybe its more survivable having had a very late first roadie last year vs TAMU but we recall how that went, over in 2 minutes .. S.Car, TAMU in pretty good spots .. @OU, @Vandy @Ark rounds out a very winnable road slate .. Give this schedule to any of the high profile teams and think all would get a decent odds boost on the conf futures the schedules all look really tough and going 7-2 in conf with a bama win we might get in thru attrition / tiebreaker .. Thats where the bama win helps us head to head and vs highest ranked common opponent and possibly get a leg up on UGA / LSU .. not outside the realm for Zoo to leave no doubt with I think an 8-1 conf record ceiling .. GO TIGERS!!!