Boisestateand8

Claw, I enjoy your threads tremendously. I'm gonna throw out a couple of other regression possibilities. 

TITANS - Defensively, only the Eagles gave up fewer yards than the 5291 yards Tennessee gave up, and yet only Carolina and Dallas gave up more points than Tenny's 460! Obviously the Titans -16 turnover differential played a significant role, but my point is while they were improved statistically last season from 2023, they stunk it up record wise both SU and ATS! A bounce back year COULD be in store, but I won't be backing them in Week One, not with a rookie QB on the road against a top defense.

BILLS - They didn't lose the turnover battle in a single game all season, including the playoffs and finished the year with a +26 differential! That number alone screams regression! In Week One they face the Ravens, who in my mind have been the best team in the league the past couple of seasons. The line is Buffalo -1'. In last year's playoff matchup it was Baltimore -1'. The three point swing is significant when you take into account that regular season Lamar Jackson is much better than playoffs Lamar Jackson. Ravens look like a solid play in Week One.

Dude had mental issues from concussions . We just had a case in Idaho where a guy is facing life in solitary confinement for murdering four college students at the U of Idaho. He did it with a knife. It's not the weapon that's at fault, it's the person holding the weapon. If one of those poor kids had a gun four lives might've been saved and the perp would be dead!

@KarmaStateU2024

 I agree with the take on Coen, who coached Baker Mayfield into a career season a year ago. Can he do the same with Trevor Lawrence? Very possible, especially after the Jags drafted Travis Hunter and signed a whole slew of free agents. Kinda liking the Jags over Carolina in Week One laying 2'. As for the Falcons, they swept the Bucs last season and would've won the division had they not lost to the Panthers in the finale. 

I think this line is spot on. I love Kellen Moore but he's a first time head coach, the Saints have an aging roster and have salary cap issues. Plus, even though I wasn't a big fan of Derek Carr, he's far better than what the Saints have now. To me they look like one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, at least early on.

The Cardinals have as good a shot as any team to win the wide open NFC West. They've really upgraded their defense through free agency and the draft. Offense is status quo, and it's time for Kyler Murray to put up or shut up. He's got plenty of weapons but he's been inconsistent. If he's on, Arizona will roll New Orleans, but if he gets the fizzies an upset is certainly possible. No play for me on this one, but good luck to you Spottie!

I don't see a dropoff if Tyrod Taylor has to go in. As far as backups go he's pretty good 

They have the easiest schedule in the division, based on the 2024 standings, so who knows? A lot depends on their Oline.

As far as the other teams in the AFC West, Super Bowl losers are generally a bad bet for the following season (see S.F. last season). The Chiefs have had a lot go right appearing in three straight Supies. They were the luckiest team in the NFL last season before being exposed by Philly. The Chargers? Hmmm, maybe, but Justin Herbert hasn't been consistent. Hard to rely on him. The Broncos? If Bo Nix doesn't suffer a sophomore slump they could certainly be in the mix. The division looks wide open to me. With upgrades in the front office, the coaching staff and the overall roster, the Raiders have a shot in my humble opinion.

@SPark1

 Geno is better than what they had and he's got a better coach. I'm shocked that Sanders is still on the board. Shades of Colin Kaepernick. Nobody wants the drama.

They've got a new proven head coach in Pete Carroll, they picked up the best RB in the draft in Ashton Jeanty, they've got the best tight end in the NFL in Brock Bowers, a top defender in Maxx Crosby, and an improved QB in Geno Smith. Despite the presence of Smith, I got a feeling they take Shedeur Sanders with the 4th pick in Round Two. In fact, I'd be shocked if they don't. I'm not a big fan of his ego but this would be a huge value pick for the Silver and Black.

Betting against the refs. Ballsy.

They've got the better defense, running back, offensive line and receivers, but the Chiefs have the better QB, head coach and most importantly, the refs.

What a dumbass. 

They were wearing red and yellow striped shirts. 

Hell, the Bills had the first down on the THIRD down play! Shouldn't have needed the fourth down conversion, but they got it then too! Fucking zebras oughta be wearing red and yellow striped shirts, and they need to put a dress on Mahomes! 

Should be Eagles -4.

Wow! Just when the Commies get some momentum, another self inflicted wound. 

Commies need a stop to start the second half of this one or it could be over early. Turnovers and idiotic penalties have been their downfall.

@Fuse 

@Macwestie1 

5* Bills +1' over CHIEFS - Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 SU and ATS against Josh Allen in the playoffs, but I'm going against history here. As good as Mahomes is, Allen has outplayed him this year and is deserving of the MVP award. But one of the biggest reasons I'm on Buffalo here is RB James Cook. The Chiefs' defense has been leaking oil lately against the run, surrendering 202 yards (6.5 YPR) at Pittsburgh, and 149 yards (5.1 YPR) vs Houston last week. Cook has rushed for over 1000 yards (4.87 YPR), and has 32 receptions for another 258 yards this season and has been productive in the playoffs. He could have a big game here. Another reason to like Buffalo is their +27 turnover differential which is tops in the league, compared to Kansas City's +6. However, since Mahomes threw two picks at Buffalo back in October, they've now gone eight straight games without committing a turnover. That streak COULD end here, against a Bills defense that has 35 takeaways this season, including three last week vs Baltimore. The loss of S Taylor Rapp hurts, and CB Christian Benford may be out as well, but it just feels like this is Josh Allen's year. 34-21, BILLS!

3* Commanders +6 over EAGLES - Just not sold on Jalen Hurts. He just hasn't looked right since returning from his concussion and now he has a bum knee. Commies have been competitive in every game this season since the opener. I'll say 26-23 OT, Eagles.

Couldn't ask for better weather for these two games, although wind gusts could be an issue in Philadelphia. As far as the latest on the injury front, the two biggies for Washington are Cosmi and NT Daron Payne, and for Philadelphia it's Dean and possibly Jurgens, who is still listed as questionable with a bad back. And even though Hurts is off the injury report, he'll be wearing a knee brace, and if this WASN'T the NFC Championship Game I have to wonder what his playing status would be.