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Leans Listed most confident to least but will not be plays. Mariners O 85.5 Angels U 79.5 Orioles O 81 Padres U 66.5 Reds U 70.5 Braves O 74.5 Tigers O 84 Cleveland Indians 93.5 This is my team and I always think the people that know their teams have the best insight to how they might do throughout a season. 93.5 is just too high for me but I give reasons why Id take either side. Why I’d bet the Over: PITCHING PITCHING PITCHING and some guy named Edwin. The starting staff is electric. “When all healthy” I would put them up against any staff in the league. They can eat innings and they all strikeout a ton of batters with great wiff rates. Everyone pointed to the signing of Encarnacion this year (which I did love obviously) but the front office bringing in Boone Logan was almost just as exciting for me. Miller, Allen and Shaw threw so many innings last year that we really needed another lefty option out of the pen and Logan gives Tito so much flexibility at the back end with how he can use all four guys (preferabbly not Shaw) now. Adding Edwin with the possibility of Michael Brantley coming back and another year of Francisco Lindor growth and this lineup could rival Boston for tops in the leauge. Sometimes their outfield defense makes me cringe but collectively they were still top 10 in the AL last year. That’s always a wildcard but they wont be terrible. Combine the good with a team that believes in each other and could carry momentum from a game 7 defeit in the WS just like their division rival Royals did 2 years ago and 94 wins is certainly possible. Why I like the Under: This is probably my stronger play. As I said above the pitching is great but I cant count on Carrasco’s health right now (elbow inflamation missing one spring start) and I cant count on Salazar’s for 162 games either. I feel to get to 94 wins this team needs Salazar to finally start 33 games and throw 190 and I just don’t see it. Kipnis is missing opening day with a shoulder strain and while reports are pleasant about Michael Brantley (he doubled in a minor league game today 3/15) I wont believe that guy is healthy until I see him in the lineup for 20 straight games. Jose Ramriez had an insane BABIP last year and that will regress. He might be good again but the guy was just a utility bench player 2 seasons ago. Naquin should regress and if Chisenhall hits .300 again even in a platoon role I’ll be surprised. Kluber threw so many innings last year along with Miller, Allen and Tomlin, and it makes you wonder if he’ll feel those innings in 2017. So much went right for this club in 2016 and its just hard to repeat all of that two years in a row. I think this team will be very good but I still side with the under thinking aroun 89-90 wins. |
mootz748 | 18 |
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Yankees Under, Pirates Under, Twins Under, Diamondbacks Over, Cardinals Over, Rays Under, Marlins Over, Mets Under. These are my strongest plays. When I see someone’s picks I like to know why someone sided the way they did instead of just seeing the picks and if you care I gave my reasonings for each pick below. Along with some leans and a write up of my team the Cleveland Indians and why I would side with either the Over or the Under with them. New York Yankees. U 83 -115 I think this number is inflated due to the national popularity of the Yanks. I do not think this team will be horrible and I like the young lineup but even with the good bullpen I do not think it’s enough to make up for the starting rotation. I think next year is the year to buy the over on this team but for 2017 Im seeing 78-80 wins. Pittsburgh Pirates U 83 Even This has a lot to do with value getting even money on the under. Last year this team made the 4th most errors (3rd most fielding) and they were 20th in defensive runs saved and 26th in UZR. Moving Marte to center will help but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to move those numbers a ton. Tony Watson is great and did a good job of taking over after Melancon was delt last year but a guy with just 20 career saves for a full season is risky. I like the lineup but the starting staff has too many questions for me to get this team to 84 wins. Only worry is with the bottomfeeding Reds and Brewers and if the Cubs take just 5-6 games back this year it could push the Pirates to the number. But for even or plus money I have them at 78-84. Minnesota Twins U 74.5 -115 This is pretty simple for me. This rotation is just inexperienced and the growing pains are showing in the win column. The lineup is decent but also young for the most part and the defense is just not good. I think this number is based off of the White Sox being sellers along with the seasons the Tigers and Royals had in 2016. I think the Tigers have one more run in them to push the Indians for all they have in 17 and while the Royals aren’t the Royals from those WS appearances, last year had a lot to do with injuries and if they are healthy are at worst a .500 team. The Twins just arent ready to push .500 and I fully expect them to battle the Sox for the basement. 70-92 Arizona Diamondbacks O 78.5 -110 I’ll just start by saying I was on the over with this club last year and we all know how that turned out. I don’t think we’ll ever see 2015 Greinke again but I don’t expect the 2016 version either. He will have some positive regression and is a great bounceback candidate. The news out of camp that Aj Pollock might have a groin issue is concerning but he does say its not a serious issue. Id wait on more confirmation before going over with this team. I don’t really like spring training stats too much and while an ERA over 9 is not good I have read Shelby Miller has consistantly been in the mid to upper 90s. Those two along with the addition of Walker who’s stuff I like a lot could end up an underrated top 3 in a rotation. Everyone loves the Rockies this year with that lineup but Im going to side with the Diamondbacks bouncing back to around .500. 80-82. St Louis Cardinals O 84.5 -120 Not a fan of the juice on this one but it’s a pretty simple pick for me. If Im right about the under for the Pirates and the Brewers and Reds are as terrible as everyone expects along with slight regression from the Cubs, someone else in this division has to win. I see the Cubs with 98 wins and the Brewers and Reds barely hitting 70 with the Pirates around 78. Add in Cardinal’s devil magic and 85 wins is all but certain. Tampa Bay Rays U 78 -115 A lot of people are high on this team this year but I will not be one. The East is still quietly a juggernaut and I expect the Jays and Red Sox to be 85+ with the O’s and Yanks around 80 so there just arent enough wins to go around for the Rays to top this number. The pitching staff has potential but until I see a step forward in ability and health I can’t really trust them 1-5, even though I expect positive ERA regression from Archer. Most, always love this team to be the cinderella but really since Maddon left they haven’t gotten over .500. I expect them to be better than 68 but not the 80 from two years ago so I’ll split the difference at 74-88. Miami Marlins Over 76.5 even I like the value here. This is a good lineup with a great bullpen and the Marlins should bring a top rated defense. Biggest question is will all of that be enough to makeup for this starting rotation? I think its enough to push this club toward .500 at least. The starters bring risk as does the health of Stanton but I like this team as a whole. I have them at 79-83. New York Mets U 88.5 (+110) This one will not be popular but a lot of it has to do with the value of plus money. Could this team take the division with the promise of these young starters, a stellar bullpen and a 35/110 season from Cespedes and ride it all to 94 wins and the division? Definitely. But with plus money there are too many question marks for this team for me to get them to 89 wins. The starting pitching is great but the health worries me a ton. I don’t really like the lineup too much and even with a + bullpen they do not play good defense. I already like the Marlins over total and I lean with the Braves over 74 add that to this still being the National’s division and a Phillies team that could be sneaky good and I have the Mets at 84-78. |
mootz748 | 18 |
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One game tonight. USA v Venezuela
Not really in love with either side tonight so might just be rooting for USA and call it a day. Why I'd take USA. - I am really not a fan of Smyly right now but for what it is worth he's gone 5 scoreless over 2 Spring app so far. Striking out 5 and walking 2. His biggest problem is Home Runs and Petco should help with that. Surpisingly; Cabrera, V-Mart, Odor, Altuve, Escobar, and CarGo went a combned 3-18 against Smyly last year. The bullpen should be fresh and the team should be ready to go in what is basically a must win with PR and DOM on deck. Also Venezuela has been hit or miss on the offensive side this tournament and will face much better arms in a very pitcher friendly park tonight than they did in round 1 Why I'd take Venezula. - In what should be a close playoff like game the value play is all on VEN. ML on them is up to +167, in a game that would not be shocking to see them win that's great value. In taking the loss to PR in round 1 Felix Hernandez lasted 51 pitches over 2.2 innings walking 2 striking out 3 allowing 1 run. Adding his spring app in he is striking out over 8 per 9 while walking just over 1. I dont know if the Mariners have instructed the team to keep his count low but if VEN can get any length out of him they have a shot tonight. Total I see O 9.5 (even) U 9.5 (-120). I like the under. Both of these teams are loaded with ML talent and this is a must win for both teams if they want a shot at the finals. It'll be playoff like and the park held some long shots to the alleys last night for DOM and PR. VEN ptiching after King Felix scares me as does Smyly getting stretched out for the first time but I think 9.5 is too high. I'll take the under with a final score of 5-3. WBC to date: Sides 4-5, Totals 7-3 GO USA
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baroid16 | 1 |
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Dominican -1.5 (-130). Love Car Mart tonight especially with the pitch count being raised to 80. Much tougher lineup than canada in Puerto Rico but he was jacked up in that game topping 100 and I expect anthor 4-5 dominant innings. Bullpen will shut it down from there.
Lean the under 10.5 because of the Dominicans pitching staff. Puerto Rico's offense is hot but they did not face any pitching close to this in round 1. Only a lean because with the pitching PR will throw out there the Dominicans could likely cover the line themselves. But its a rivalry and PR has revenge on the mind. 7-3 Dominicans. Netherlands -1.5 (-150). The dutch offense is starting to click and Cuba's pitching has not held up against teams with good lineups like Japan. NED has plenty of major league firepower to outslug Cuba if need be. Dutch 9 Cuba 5 Really like the over for many of the reasons I like the Dutch to win. Cuba's pitching wont hold this lineup at bay and they can score a little thier own. I got it at O 9.5 but looks like it's up to 10 (-120). Not sure about any value for Japan vs. Isreal yet. Early look at USA v Venezuela is the Over 9.5 and I think there is value on Venezula at +140. I do not trust Drew Smyly at all against VEN even though they've struggled a bit. Those are very early looks though. Tread lightly. 3-4 on sides this classic. 5-3 on totals. Whether you play, fade, or just wanna read GL to all. Make that money.
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baroid16 | 2 |
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I don't really think the Padres have the pitching to make a run at it. Im a huge Indians fan but Kluber will have to regress only because his season was so amazing and the rest of the staff has major ?'s and they had the worst defense in the league last year and I do not know how much that will improve. I love the Rangers at 40/1 and the Tigers at 20/1. They gotta win this thing sometime right? The White Sox at 20/1 look nice too. That lineup is underrated and if they sneak in Sale and Samardija would be rough in October. I know its not as good odds but love the Cardinals at 14/1 and I think the Mariners will make a serious run at it this year.
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collegegambler | 37 |
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