Bridge1

BRIDGE PLAY

PURDUE -16 (CIRCA) 

Took a look over these roster and man the differential is just immense and very tough to say Purdue w new HC Odom is gunna turn the ship around year 1 but big picture they actually have talent and experience in the door .. might not be the kind that's gunna win many B10 games but there should be some surprise stars on this team and already getting the vibe from camp that there's a new sheriff in town and there's just a whole new attitude .. it really is a new team with 50ish guys out the door 50ish new .. but Odom is a guy who can get the attitude and direction set in real fast and I don't think we'll need much more than that .. Took a peek at how Barry has treated these sorta smaller team games in the past at Mizzoo and UNLV and even in his first year 2016 eekin out 4 wins he had time to lay the wood on Eastern Mich 61-21 .. 2017 similar deal mid season @Uconn layed em out big .. Put wyoming, memp and Troy thru the floor also .. Did lose that one @Wyo lol .. I don't think Ball St at home will be quite that challenge .. I just can't see a HC not try to take advantage of this spot either like this is a must must must lay an ass wippin absolute tone re-setting game for these guys if there ever was one .. no clue if the tone will stay that way or not but program went thru the ringer from hell last year and its not a spot you want to get tangled up with your little 5 year old brother from down state just to show how improved you got over the season .. might win only a couple this year and might be the only true ass kicking they dish out, gotta be approached that way .. 

Ball State has their new coach Urimovich form Butler coming in and Cardinals roster is in a state of disrepair after at least having a good offense to balance out the damage their D did every week .. they lose all their best offensive pieces and somehow lost any good stuff from a horrifically unbelievably bad defense and roster looks like a real bad outlier like not quite Kent State bad but probably 2 steps below Umass .. Kael Kelly the QB is a legit running scrambling threat dude .. moved to DB last year to let Semonza be QB .. we saw Kelly in '23 take the reigns and hit ~50% but his scramble ability is a real threat and only way they stay within the number is he has just an unstoppable Lamar type day basically doing wildcat runs maybe getting real lucky bombing it down field a couple times .. But he's gotta do it with an O that profiles very bad at all other positions not just bad but particularly bad. DL is very small and they shrink quick at the other spots bunch of midget DE's .. doesn't look like their D got any better from last year lotta former walk ons and guys w no recruit rating multi year injured guys playing first game litter the expected 2-deep on both sides .. I suspect it won't be long before Coach Urimovich takes this game and the AUB game on deck to feel out which players should actually see the field this year and which are just not ready .. they have winnable games vs New Hampshire wk 3 and @Uconn wk 4 is maybe the big test for them, yeah I think sometime in that Purdue game the mode switches to figuring out what they have there's a few knowns but overall pretty dire situation for them.. 

Very tough to say where the line should be with so much going on with these rosters but I think books put this here based on the total team quit collapse from Purdue last year and new coach new attitude can take the talent they have and make it work right away .. Ball State's O can't be assumed to carry over and their D is maybe somehow in worse shape .. consider the absolute need for a W by Purdue too think the line jumps maybe -21 by kickoff and prob much higher when we look back .. I just can't see it being where its at now .. Good luck!

FLORIDA NEWS .. 

Eesh .. DJ Lagway injury concerns kinda mounting now .. got a few Florida plays in the GOY's .. I took a small bite off the LSU one taking them -6 vs my UF +6.5.. lettin it ride for now with UF +9.5 vs UGA with that game being so late and critical .. Did take Florida / LSU Under 54.5 for a small bite too .. hearing Lagway's shoulder might still be just a little bothering still and gotta wonder if the boot is just a cover for that or another ding for him but sheesh .. didn't throw in the spring .. shows up in a boot .. folks saying his throwing isin't 100 yet and maaan that LSU game comes callin quick ..  Billy won't have any qualms about running the ball if DJL can't air it out all game and prob gunna do that anyway .. welp ... keep your eyes on that one because were not at 'here we go again' w The Gators but .. check back in a few days lol .. 

@UNIMAN

That's a no joke spot my dude .. Got a look at Rutgers overall not a bad think very likely to be more reliable passing and enough RB's there they won't miss Monongai too much .. not the deepest WR group but like the top 3 the NTEX guy could be a guy they've just never had before .. D looks better up front where they had trouble last year .. DE looks real nasty might be game changing good solid 2-deep there .. DB unit a little sus we'll see ..but plenty of time to get shored up for that giant look ahead spot .. But yeah all I can say is its a likely down spot for Bucks and for them that means they can still win easy with what they got .. 

Yeah I don't hate that Tex .. Took under 10.5 .. One concern is its possible OSU could be a bubble team and think nature could just kinda find a way to eek them in there, wouln't be their first playoff eek in decision going their way.. But man 3.4-1 feels pretty good IMO given .. There's a pretty obvious 3 very losable games w UT, PSU @Mich .. @Wash, @Ill make it 2 more where just a bad game or the wrong turnover could do them in ..  3 other distress spots vs weaker opponents @Wisco is a totally under the radar UGLY spot huge risk they pitch a bad game there.. easy for any good team to lose control in that situation .. Minny maybe a cake walk but in that post-Wash / ILL B2B roadies on deck just can't say there's not some potential for bad game baked in when they should kill em at home .. Rutgers off a bye maybe the biggest lookahead trouble spot on the CFB schedule .. don't even need the distress spots but losing 1 or playing down in 2 wouldn't surprise me and really just not helping a CFB resume if they're struggling in any of those games and have a few losses in others .. 

Good luck!

SMALLER

GEORGIA STATE +39.5

Gotta stay small here but this does feel like too much relying on a beaten down team from last year with so many bad situations going on .. The reason to think it'll be a big beatdown is the back end of this D could really stink and we got Kiffin on practice mode which basically means its prob normal operation on offense for the entire game .. so yeah I get the big line here .. But also think G.State's offense turned a little corner late last year and while tough to project I do think we get a consistent and solid improvement on offense .. WR unit looks very solid .. Phil's #1 unit in the sun belt led by a real legit 900 yd dude last year and more to like beyond just him .. RB unit has 3 to like Akron's RB was solid last year and got Rashad Amos who was at Ole Miss LY didn't get much action but a major dude at Miami Oh 2ya he'll be looking to reginite that fire esp vs his old team .. Branson Robinson was UGA's next man up and runs like Nick Chubb big rumbler tough to bring down ... injuries stalled his career for 2 yrs looking for a sure thing relaunch pad, G-State is a perfect spot to do that and won't need a pep talk to wanna go rumblin vs the Rebs .. 

Hard to say exactly what Kiff's approach to this game will be .. We're getting a gigantic line because he does tend to smoke these little teams off the bat and last year was 4 up 4 down big scores .. that was also his best team very experienced ready to go .. we don't often see a spot like this one though with one smaller team followed by very critical matchups .. after G-State Rebs go on the road to a 100% must win big revenge game @Kentucky a total shock loss last year after he was stemin thru 4 duds early ... win that one LY Kiff makes the playoffs so maybe lesson learned don't put the whole offense on tape for Brad White to shut em down again huh? .. then go right to a pretty heated rival vs Arkansas, Tulane, LSU before a bye .. Tulane will show up like its their superbowl G5 playoff resume shot max effort and total sandwich nearly beat em 2 yrs ago I wouldn't call it a rest stop .. just a MASSIVE start to the year will chart the course for this season.. wouldn't wait for the bye week to find out who my best 2-deep is ..

But yeah we know Kiff can make a point and try to blow this line out the water if he went all systems go so gotta go Smaller on it .. but think massive line for potential likely improvement on G-State and if we're profiling Ole Miss think they may need to be rotating and testing a few guys over their D very early on this yr, could be big total but G-State just finding the end zone enough to keep it within 31 or so .. good luck!

SMALLER

BRIDGE PLAY

FRESNO ST/GA SO UNDER 54.5

Took another bite at Circa same number.. why not looked at it, like it, think we'll get some movement before maybe after KU if Fresno comes out slow pokin' .. either way the total is shade above average scoring when we expect Fresno to be in 21 personnel QB under center run quite a bit and milk the clock down every play .. Neither team has a sure thing offensive line, Fresno's is 5 newbs and their fan site podcast guys are very close to the team very direct on their thoughts and weren't down on the OL but the questions have been brewing since spring .. TE more of the blocking variety and really uncertain at WR no sure thing deep threat .. my guess is the WR group will need to prove their reliability before they get consistent calls in the offense.. also like DC Nick Bendetto it took a year playing FR/Sophs at N.ILL to put his D together but 2 years F+ model shows '22 bottom of the barrel #127 .. D moved to a respectable rank for a MAC team #91 in '23 and a MASSIVE LEAP from the doldrums they're often in .. then #41 LY which is another MASSIVE LEAP made them the 5th best in G5, for ref #1 G5 was UNLV, #28 overall, an incredible feat .. Not a surprise he was getting dialed up this year and Matt Entz is a guy with a big rolodex lotta options to bring in and 2 very strong D minds working on it .. its a way better starting point at Fresno than N.ILL even if there are a few wonders I think they'll outperform right away .. G.SO also w a fairly newer OL although w quick new guys at LT/RT .. think the D has alot more promise for improvement esp on the back end their DC is a specialist w the secondary and looks like they finally have a decent unit back there and a few others to like .. maybe less incentive for Fres to test them out .. also good kicker form G.So is gone, likely to see 2 true FR kickers .. neither team should balk at taking 3 points in this one .. not much new just think its one worth taking a bigger stab on .. Good Luck!!

^^ N.TEXAS CONT'D .. 

Schedule is not a gimme they have @Army early on and more on that below .. but it sets up nicely after that gm w BYE, USF, UTSA, @CHAR, Navy .. if we get the drastic improvement hoped for on D UNT can be looking great in the final stretch going BYE, @UAB, @Rice, Temple to close the year .. 

Part of the 'make champ game' consideration instead of 'Win Conf' was they do play @Army early on and game comes in not a great spot .. wouldn't count them out of showing up there and revealing themselves to be legit contenders and escaping with a W .. our stuff feels great then  .. if not though I think we get in-season conf odds that boom up to 30 or more maybe and can decide then to take the full conf deal .. either way still think they'd have a decent shot to make the champ game and 'make champ game' prob won't be an available future in ssn ... Also reason for going 'make the game' is the consideration if they lose to Army they prob lose HFA in the champ game .. very possible they play a legit bohemoth at their house .. could be Tulane but Memp looks pretty good this yr too .. Conf Win leaves us open to needing a massive hedge to collect a payday and if UNT is catching 4.5 any ML hedge on the fav is prob leaving us with <8-1 anyway ,, I could see UNT showing up @Memp or @Tulane as big underdogs too so just feels like 20-1 was too low for me .. make the champ game and just get paid 8-1 im good w that .. nothing more miserable than locking in your awesome 20-1 pre-ssn call down to a 5 or 4-1 payday .. eek .. and we might end up able to get some more giant odds say if they lose to Army some books might pop em way up to 50-1 at that pt we can consider that if we see it .. My suggestion is if you can't find 8-1 or better on the 'make champ game' then consider waiting and playing after their first conf loss might end up with good team losing in a tough spot and books missing big picture what their odds should still be .. That's of course ... IF THEY HAVE A LOSS!!!! HAHA .. Good luck! 

MAKE CHAMP GAME

N.TEXAS 8-1 (MGM)

Torn between 20-1 to win and 8-1 to make the game .. end of the day I think they line up pretty well with a shot to make the game considering the schedule opponents and spots .. N.Texas was 25-1 for the conf not long ago and meant to get back and take a real look at playing it .. since then the 25's have vanished and just finding a lone 20-1 left at MGM .. maybe first come first serve .. seeing 17's and down to 12 at Circa .. And I can't disagree with the move the big concern for centuries with the Green has been their D and while there were a few signs of life last year its still a tall order to expect an improvement on the order of what I think it would take to be typical hit and miss team in the AAC .. Reallllllly like the DC hire Skyler Cassidy from Sam Houston the seeds were planted for them the D by '23 and it was hit n miss and he came in off some success in FCS and really made it work had em playing tough and with a purpose of making that champ game .. they fell short but MAJOR improvements showed up when we normalize the stats vs Conf only .. 3.6 yds / carry good for 25th .. #3 in pass comps w 52% both were major improvements from at least middling levels in CFB vs Conf the year before .. scoring ppg #78 last yr 28 ppg vs conf all the way to #5 in '24 with 15ppg .. there's more to the story with their slower longer drive offense but the metrics vs conf really don't lie a MASSIVE improvement in every way and the big key in Sammy going from their 3 W intro season to 9 W's reg ssn contending for the conf beating Texas State, La Tech 9-3!!.. Liberty in the finale and beating up a solid G-SO squad in the bowl game and the D had 4 picks, 3 sacks, held GSO to 212 passing 57% comps and scored a TD in a 5 point win .. Cassidy's specialty is the secondary and brought over 5 Sammy Stud Starters 2 CB's, LB, DE and DT and LB prospect S'maj Burrell looking to restart his career after being a 4 star UT recruit but got derailed with legal trouble .. Word is out because Cassidy signed quite a few other quality G5 starters and P4 prospects .. 

Offense looks hopeful for improvement after losing all gamer tandem team QB Chandler Morris xfer to UVA and WR DT Sheffield xfer .. surprisingly .. to Rutgers .. could be a huge pickup for them .. NT lost 2 more starters ~150 rec out the door 2k yds total .. but Sammy contributed a good WR too so they still have another 4 heavy contributors from last yr 100 rec 1300 yds plus Sammy contrib'd their starting WR Simeon Evans the unit may not skip a beat at all having many guys lookin more than capable of stepping up / a huge floor for what this unit can be .. 2 QB's in Poffensbarger Miami BUP to Cam last year was an FCS Albany star before and projected starter .. Mestemaker proved himself more than capable in the bowl game and surprised he stuck around love having a quality bup QB on futures plays .. RB has 3 guys to like .. OL only had about 10 guys to choose from LY and played 9 of em extensively every game trying new combos eek .. all told they go from 9 with 3 exp to 6 starters 2 more FCS starters, 6 more inexp sophs like 16 deep ready to go unit with Gabe Blair OL-C 2x All Con OFY wk 1 LY coming back to finish his career big leader media days rep .. OL profiles like one of the biggest turnaround units in CFB .. 

BRIDGE PRE-SSN ROUNDUP .. 7/27 

BRIDGE PLAYS
UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5
S.CAROLINA / VA TECH +9.5
NEBRASKA / CINCINNATI +7
MINNESOTA / BUFFALO +18.5
TENNESSEE / GEORGIA -5.5 WK3
OREGON / PENN STATE -4 WK5
OLE MISS / GEORGIA -9.5 WK8

SMALLER
TULANE / NWESTERN +7
KANSAS / FRESNO +14.5
G.SO / FRESNO UNDER 54.5
MICH / OKLA -1.5 WK2
LSU / FLORIDA +7 WK3
UGA / FLORIDA +9.5 WK10
ALABAMA / LSU +6.5 WK11

SEASON WINS
PITT OVER 5.5 -150
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
MISSOURI OVER 7.5 +130
NWESTERN OVER 3.5 -140
S.DIEGO ST OVER 4.5 -110
JAMES MAD OVER 7.5 -120
GEORGIA ST OVER 3.5 -105
OHIO STATE UNDER 10.5 -130
S.CAROLINA UNDER 7.5 -110
TENNESSEE UNDER 8.5 +100
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120
MARSHALL UNDER 5.5 -115
TULANE UNDER 8.5 -110
ARMY UNDER 7.5 -110
UAB UNDER 4.5 -130
BYU UNDER 8.5 -157

CONF FUTURES
PITT 80-1
UTSA 8.5-1
BAYLOR 9-1
TULSA 300-1
SO MISS 24-1
MISSOURI 50-1
VIRGINIA 200-1
CINCINNATI 40-1
SAN DIEGO ST 60-1

HEISMAN
DIEGO PAVIA 300-1
AHMAD HARDY 500-1
BLAKE HORVATH 500-1
DEVON DAMPIER 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 300-1

MAKE PLAYOFF
UTSA 25-1
SO MISS 100-1
SAN JOSE ST 60-1
SAN DIEGO ST 60-1

NATTY
TEXAS TECH 175-1

JUST FOR FUN .. 

VA TECH ML/O45.5 +600
HAWAII ML / O52.5 +661
MICH -34.5 / U51.5 +407
PENN.ST -45.5 / U59.5 +466
MIZZ.ST +32.5 / O57.5 +320

WIN 6+ GMS PARLAY:
SDSU, SMISS, VANDY, AF 18.3-1
TULSA, VANDY, SMISS, UVA, PITT 73-1

CONF CHAMP PARLAY:
LIB, BOISE, UTSA, PSU 97-1
LIB, BOISE, JMU 22-1
BAY, BOISE, JMU, BUFF 413-1
LIB, JMU, UTSA, CLEM, BAY 1638-1

^^ OHIO STATE CONT'D .. 

The schedule ....  2 ELITE opponents making legit push for a natty this year both in The Shoe .. Horns didn't blink last year and hung a number vs a pretty solid Mich D .. PSU in the shoe took their great DC and he'll be in a position to draw one up vs his former team .. losing Knowles (in a bidding war?) to a rival is just another very strong indicator that OSU isin't all in at a B2B natty run and PSU looks geared up for a run like OSU was last year .. @Mich they also look maybe a year away from a real natty run but certainly in the playoff mix and by year end maybe turn a big corner on O with their new QB.. Winning THE GAME is IMO a more important goal for OSU this year than making the playoffs and could lead to Bucks taking chances on prospect development in other big games / injury management / saving best plays and other ways one might angle the team to win a year end clash and that's not a formula for winning 11+ games .. which they don't even need to make the playoffs btw.. 10 wins could put them in the B10 champ game or just put them in the spot they were in last year .. which I think was a great spring board btw playing first game at home.. Just think coache's decisions could lead to a few down games and you'll recall they had a few of those last year even with the elite champ roster units and all that journey to the natty / complete the mission mojo.. more than a couple scare spots last year vs PSU and at home vs Nebraska .. ELITE D dished out multiple Goal Line MIRCALES to save both games .. and plenty of other tough spots this year the early stretch is really tough too @Wash first road game 9/27 will not be easy.. should beat Minny at home on deck but that could be a down game with B2B roadies @Illinois and @Wisco .. Say what you will OSU is ~ 2 TD favs at least on all those teams but I'd predict at least 1 likely loss for any other B10 team in that stretch .. 

Which brings me to the next point .. I appreciate pre-ssn models but lot of relying on recency of the epic playoff run, recent recruiting, and the ret pro they had under epic year circumstances .. it struggles understanding coaching changes, injury luck, depth, under the radar portal moves, off field issues and/or the all in continuity, journey and program all in attitudes we saw when OSU was taking and landing their big shot last year vs what tends to happen to teams off their peak..  I've analyzed teams on those other things for a few years now and done pretty well against the models pre-ssn expectations and think its a tough case to make OSU #1 even if SP+ PR's and books natty odds are in agreement on that .. think the far and away most likely scenario is with 2-3 losses this year and frankly think more of a botched year with injuries gives 4 losses more of a chance than everything working perfect for 11 or 12 wins .. Still no doubt this is a team that could totally gather itself during the season and make a big playoff run again even if they take the couple losses we're looking for .. Good luck!

SEASON WINS

OHIO STATE UNDER 10.5 -130 (FAN)

Welp Uni and Hock and all you guys Mich maniacs out there, this ones for you .. We have OSU off a long journey run having come a FG away 2 years ago and finally took home the hardware last year .. Very special team with quite a few recruits to the school many guys came back to complete the mission .. they had the multiple NFL foregoers for a couple years .. and took their big shot in the portal and had the expensive overall roster .. they had NFL calib guys up and down the roster and got very lucky with injuries.. a special year thru n thru it all lined up very well.

Big picture when I look at the roster with the talent out the door, the amount of backups needing to fill in as elite level starters and the lack of filling that in with quality / depth from the portal this year .. just looks like they'll have difficulty in forming the elite units they'll need to make it 11 wins this year .. you need the offense to gel / mesh under the new OC same on D losing by far the most proven and best DC in CFB .. and losing him to a big rival on the schedule that's making a major natty push this year ..  Julian Sayin looks real good no doubt but depth at QB is not like the sure thing depth unit they lined up last year with Will Howard, Devin Brown, Air Noland and also Sayin, and Kleinholtz .. lining that up meant OSU was not willing to take a QB injury risk .. RB goes from an elite NFL tandem to unproven breakout sophs and I like CJD need him to be a total monster, numbers last year breaking tackles / explosive runs were pedestrian .. OL lost 4 .. the top 4 .. unit can be solid but elite would be very tough .. DL/DE is maybe the biggest expected step back .. many Houston looks like next man up .. Would UNC xfer Beau Atkison have shared many critical reps last year?.. doubt it .. his PFF grades are all 10 pts lower than JTT or Capt Jack vs his ACC comp .. Sonny Styles is good Reese filling Cody Simon's shoes .. Hartford and McClain look ready to play next to Caleb Downs, good PFF grades but with 100 reps or so each it might be a step down from Latham Ransom who completed a double elite safety tandem last year.. not really at CB though Igbonuson has not cracked an elite level at OSU, 39 starts in 3 yrs SEC/B10 play.. I think there's a reason he's returning.. Need to find at least 1 ELITE CB to step up and my sense is they'll pull up short of that around like 'very good' at best .. WR elite Trio with Egbuka/Williams/Tate .. still elite but tough to be better.. TE w unsung dude GEE very good blocking TE who could catch when needed and great to have him with 2 starting OL's injured last yr .. Klare will likely only help in the receiving department a total dude there but he's blocking deficient .. TE could still be an elite in the aggregate with good blocker like Kacmarek who can also catch a ball .. Thurman maybe a do it all TE .. Kicker was iffy from deep, Punter is nothing special .. will be harder to paper over the little things this year ..  

So many units stacked with ELITE tandems last year are needing one or two big jumps from prospects .. They added very little in the portal Atkison at DE and 2 FCS xfrs .. the D depth likely need 3 true FR to step up and play a significant backup role, the talent on them is A+ and might need to play at that level right away and that's a tall order .. wrong injury could be a major set back .. this team will no doubt be ready to contend again in '26 but if they were thinking of making a run this year we'd see alot more portal padding in very obvious key areas.

FUN BET .. 

Took a small bite parlaying the two Fresno unders on the board .. 2.6-1 .. right move idk but what the heck we think Fresno will be a slow grind it out maybe end of the day not all that great of an offense .. and .. yeah totals in the 50's are too high for teams like that .. I'd also tend to expect Leipold to grind the clock out and not embarrass Entz in his Debut punching in extra TD's if he's out ahead .. Good luck!

PARLAY 2.6-1

FRES / KU U50.5
FRES / G.SO U54.5

SMALLER

FRESNO ST/GA SO UNDER 54.5 -105 (ESPN)

Big first game at home for Fresno and really good quality opponent in G.SO coming to town .. Fresno will be off a week zero meeting with KU .. I think this total is driven high with the thought of how G.SO played last year with fairly fast pace play lotta passing and we remember that Boise game week 1 last year turned into an absolute high flyin shootout with Jeanty ripping thru them almost every play .. 

Think there's a few things to point under w Matt Entz taking over at Fresno .. his OC from FCS S.Dakota and accounts sound like this is gunna be pro style slow moving and if it's anything like NDSU the signature style of play is putting very long arduous drives together and just strangling the clock .. this Fres team is also not built for much big offense, I like EJ Warner but we saw him in pro style offense last year at Rice without many WR's and it was a struggle passing and similar setup here .. they have an emerging star at RB who I expect to be featured quite a bit .. experienced backup .. TE group aren't the dynamic receiving types they're very much blocking variety .. OL has a few questions on it too which doesn't help the big scoring prospects .. The D might be a real surprise and getting the N.ILL DC is a huge get for them .. he turned the Huskies around in pretty short order to be just a sticky and feisty bunch .. recall the bowl game .. and sounds like they have quite a few guys to work with even though many aren't household names yet .. 

I do like G.SO's profile this year .. team with A TON of continuity, minimal significant portal losses lotta guys recruited to the program or at least started multiple years lotta seniors .. and only plugging holes from the portal and mostly doing it with P4 expats looking for a more certain playing career .. I think they could be pretty good this year with a good case for the D to improve .. Offense could be a little better by being more consistent / efficient too but kinda middling on explosive plays overall and lost their top RB and WR .. TE River Helms from WKY is a proven transfer .. And it's first game on the road vs ball control opponent I expect more dink n dunk which very short passing and running lotta first downs keeps clock moving.. and quick 3 n outs Fresno should oblige and play keep away... 

Total opened I think at 54.5 and hasn't moved at all yet .. It is possible the total moves up if Fresno's KU matchup has Jayhawks hanging a big number and kinda makes Fresno speed up or take some shots .. But really think Entz will be sticking to his game plan and market will have a good sense of this offense after that game at the latest .. And thinking it through if Fresno wants to beat KU best bet is just turn it into a real slow burn hope Jalon Daniels throws some picks and shorten the game .. Could also be apparent in fall camp what their plans are too so I could def see this total dropping a little and maybe down to 50ish by kickoff.. good luck!

@JJWoods

Yeah and I hate to do it such a fun team .. but just not one angle I can say this is better or even on par with last year .. they do have some guys on D that were pretty good but lost quite a few unsung guys even outside of Udoh and Modozie .. quite a few guys making plays on D are moving on, the top WR guy was a DUDE every game making big plays 20 rec 450 yds 23 yds/catch and the other WR but <100 yds LY not much but now yer past even him finding playmakers .. Real good blocking TE moved on ..  

Yeah think we're gunna see everything be a little tougher this year even vs teams we expect em to run over they played so perfect last year and Army can mess up their flow so many ways with penalties, fumbles, getting into passing downs .. 78% conv on 40 4th downs last year way up from sub 60% the 2 years previous .. idk by how much but I'll bet it's lower than last year lol ..  

@haymo

Most sites doing same game parlay spread / totals will jerk the odds around dependent on which combo you play dog/fav over/under .. go to fan duel and try it on Mich -35.5 / O51.5 the parlay is +152 .. normally +264 for 2 diff games at -110 odds .. then do Mich -35.5 / U51.5 it's +447 .. should be vice versa if you pick the dog...  they do that because if you think of all the scoring square combos that could be landed on the giant fav / under combo has significantly fewer squares to make a winning combo .. ie I need Mich to score from 35 to max whatever it was 51 or so .. and any NM score further limits the window for a winning score by Mich .. hence the higher odds offered .. 

Now there are some books that don't jerk the odds around and one might think I could ALSO take Mich -35.5 / Over 51.5 at +264 rather than the +152 fan is offering for that same bet .. and even do that for all the outcomes take big the odds at fan for NM +35.5 / O51.5 and go to another book to take NM +35.5 / U 51.5 for +264 .. but those other books won't let us combo a giant spread with the total like that .. if we find one the question would be are we positive EV doing that .. not easy to figure out .. if each leg of our 4 bets had a 25% chance to win I think we would be .. bet $1 on each parlay spread/total combo so $4 total .. expected value is ~ +$3.55 for our scenario +447 half the time +264 wins half the time.. expected win is $3.55 and our loss on the other 3 bets would be $3 .. net net we're up 55 cents .. I'm guessing the actual real odds / expected value would eat up our free 55 cents and still put us negative EV in our scenario but I can't say for sure and wouldn't suggest trying unless you got it figured out .. 

What would be interesting is finding combos to put us in +EV territory and lock in a win .. some sites offer -108 on bets making a standard parlay combo +271 instead of +264 .. maybe we could find even better odds than that? .. also diffs in the spread / total at diff books could leave some small windows every once in a while clean up with multiple wagers hitting instead of just one .. be a fun trick to play on the books but if it coulda been done I think it woulda certainly been figured out by others by now and books would fix it .. not allow the parlay combos we need or see what we're doing and limit us / ban us etc .. 

Keep in mind I called that a 'fun bet' they really should be called 'le retarde' bets because these sportsbooks would just love for us to play these all day .. I wouldn't go in thinking you're getting a great deal they know what they're doing .. good luck

Texas Tech might finally stop d!ckin around .. And Utah's new QB/OC tandem .. that OC has produced the do it all DUDE at QB more than once now ..  

HEISMAN

DIEGO PAVIA 300-1 (CIRCA)

Ok changed my mind .. last one .. I think Vandy will be improved and continue being a very tricky out as a big underdog .. Think it'll be very difficult for Pavia to win but he certainly can make the trip if he can one up last season but has to be done in a big way .. 9 wins he can punch his ticket I believe.. and that can be done w out pulling any GIANT upsets @Bama, @Texas or LSU .. between them LSU will come to Nashville in a pretty tough sandwich spot between SCAR and TAMU so maybe they can be one of the cherries on top of a heisman run .. Shock win vs LSU would be a big help .. won't catch @Bama off guard lol .. @Texas feels borderline impossible to pull an upset too but schedule shows Horns play 10 straight games to open the season and Vandy does sit in that week 10 spot which will be UT's 5th straight conf game .. if there is a down game it could be that one .. 

Back to reality .. Vandy 9 wins can be done and think the real key is beating the vols in the finale which this year I do think is absolutely possible ..  

Easy stuff .. FCS, G.State, Utah State, ..
@V.Tech .. can def beat them again I think VT might be off a real slug fest vs S.CAR .. 
Kentucky at home .. very winnable .. again .. 
@SCar .. Not nearly as tough this year losing so much NFL caliber talent off that D and a few to like on offense .. 
Mizzoo .. Zoo is in a really tough and dangerous spot w first road to Aub in week 8 and go B2B road gms into Nashville week 9 
Auburn .. Pavia 2-0 on the road vs Hugh Freeze .. Round 3 in Nashville ... I mean .. I'm not bettin on Freeze here .. 
@Tenn .. Vols might have their probs this year too and Pavia ssn / career finale .. maybe the grand opus punching a 9th W and trip to NY .. 

HEISMAN TALK .. (Circa Odds Noted) .. 

A few heisman candidates I considered and a few thoughts on em .. Odds just not there for me to play .. 

Ryan Williams 28-1 .. dude WR on potential SEC champ team in Deboer's offense spotlight will be quick to turn to him .. unknown at QB right now .. this guy is def lined up to be the star of the offense and already known as one of those next level sure thing ELITE WR's .. 

Jeremiah Smith 18-1 .. Spotlight is already completely tuned into him .. I could see him win the hardware even if they don't win the conference because he's billed as the best player in CFB as a true freshman last year .. probs w the offense / getting him the ball, stats may not really be there and make this tough to win .. but nothing will change this season about who the best player is .. its this dude .. 

CJ Carr 55-1 .. Angelli really wanted to be the guy at ND and was sent packing in spring ball .. not hard to put the pieces together CJ must be something solid .. schedule and roster are built for another big run .. have a few decent WR's that came on late in the year and added an absolute sure thing deep threat dude from UVA .. I could see this happen w an undefeated reg season which def could happen .. the problem he'll face is the spotlight will be on Jeremiah Love this season and it'll be tough to build the offense around Carr's heisman shot with basically a Co Heisman at RB stealing the spotlight .. 

DJ Lagway 25-1 .. this guy is a big play machine throwing down field .. his intermediate throw game is not great though .. but he should have some major stats to tack on with his legs .. major problem is the schedule I mean if he gets em to the champ game you can lock it up I think .. but falling short even 1 game will be tough .. also lot to contend with in Billy's offense its not a one man QB machine its very much trad run game .. RB's gunna do alot of the work .. 

Jackson Arnold 30-1 .. odds are wayyyyyy too low for me to take a stab here .. the case though is Aub might have far and away the best WR group with Cam and Singleton leading the way .. but you'll need a shocker season and maybe win the champ game .. Auburn 30-1 or so to do that I'd rather take that and not have the extra hurdle of needing Arnold to then win the hardware vs a massive field of other QB's.. 

Marcel Reed 80-1 .. It's gunna be tough to get the heisman hype w out some real johnny football comparisons .. feel like 150x I coulda taken a flyer on him .. 

Diego Pavia 300-1 .. think there is room for him on a trip to NY by piling up a big win total with some shocking upsets but still falling short of the champ game .. that said I think he'd fall short of a win .. but for 300x I did take a stab at this one he's just wayyyy too much of a household name .. Vandy is probably better this year .. and whatev that's my dude .. if he gets to NY I'll have some options to land a payday even if he's not one of the front runners .. so .. ahhh F it .. takin it .. 

HEISMAN

AHMAD HARDY 500-1 (CIRCA)

Prob last Heisman play for me and unfortunately my bet sunk the odds down to 200-1 at Circ, same odds at Czrs .. think the move is wait and see if he shows up over that at another site 200x for a RB is just not something I'd be dying to do .. was thinking 500x at least and it showed up so boom .. 

Hardy showed up as a true FR and basically put up Jeanty-like Soph year stats with the ability to break tackles on the order of what Cam Skattebo did last year .. actually had more per game .. there's also a dimension of his game ready to be unlocked in receiving out in space .. Boise was very good at getting their dude those touches but ULM passed the ball last year only more than the 3 service academies .. Hardy got 10 targets 8 receptions 9 broken tackles for ~100 yds .. very confident he will be a dangerous rec option if Pribula can find him in space .. 

Mizzoo has the potential to be one of the best rushing teams in the country this year .. Drinkwitz leans heavily on his run game and especially feature backs .. got away from that last year w Noel and Carroll splittin carries but Schrader and Tyler Badie recent backs over 1600 yds and Baddie added 54 rec for 330 yds in '21 .. Schrader did not get the targets like Baddie did but in '23 Luther Burden and Theo Wease and a few others wer getting all the targets .. Hardy def profiles as Drink's lone feature back this year on a team totally build to run the ball with their OL and major blocking TE Brett Norfleet .. they only have one sure thing major WR option and a few prospects but I think very verrrry good chance we see Hardy get leaned on the way Baddie was beyond just the run game he'll be too dangerous in space to not at least be the dump off option and I think we see his number called that way quite a bit .. 

Stats alone don't mean much we're gunna need that media attention esp down the stretch the way we expected to have it for T-HUNT last year on that BRIDGE PLAY 75-1 BAZOOKA and we also gotta have a surprise season and get a little lucky too .. We're up against TONS of experienced QB's we got Arch Manning the media is practically naming him the heisman already .. some others will pop up .. One thing working for us is Jeanty got that attn last year and proves that QB or freak 2-way player is not the only option media will consider.. Cam Skat has his Texas Game in reg ssn maybe he's bookin his trip .. we also had the OK.State guy a couple yrs back .. also think the voters will very much lean toward finding an SEC or B10 player this year .. We will need Hardy to be THAT GUY on a major surprise Mizzoo squad and if the O can be built around our dude each week get those numbers up, Mizzoo has a schedule to at least make the champ game .. 7 straight home games to start Bama in a horrible spot 7-0 with a big BAMA win that's not as tough as it seems IMO will get the springboard media attn we need and just gotta hope it continues on thru the season .. Feels like Hardy gotta lead his team to the champ game and at least Dude Out in it .. but good news is lotta other SEC teams will prob eat themselves and make it tough for one to stand out .. the one standout might also not be on a team with a champ game ticket .. very tough for a QB or anyone to win if not showcasing big in the champ game .. like UGA might win it again but QB probably not heisman material playing in that offense lotta factors that would likely exclude him ..  

SEASON WINS 

UAB UNDER 4.5 -130 (FAN)

Big picture this roster looks like major .. and I mean major .. DOG SH!T .. The good stuff for them is QB Kitna wasn't horrible last year and they have a WR corps that could provide some measure of relief .. might not be as good as last year but maybe the only hope is throwing the ball quick .. Our pal Duck the True UAB QB GURU says Kitna is a bit of a strange fellow and I'll take his word on that .. The other part to like is the kicker .. their secondary has a few sorta experienced prospects that werent bad last year .. the UTEP RB xfer wasn't bad maybe he helps but not much behind him to work with .. but most everywhere I'm looking we had decent players xfer or grad .. Very little experience at OL and it was a bad OL last year the 1 starter retained really stunk .. TE has 1 exp guy wasn't a producer had terrible PFF grades its not much to build on .. DL more of the same minimal exp bad grades .. LB is gutted 71 snaps leading returner .. secondary maybe has a chance but the probs up front may prevent the back end from having much say in getting stops on D .. eek .. And all this while having a terrible year last year when they actually had quite a few decent players .. most all of them left and its the guys now who weren't on the field much last year and FCS xfers and some more promising xfers are basically hoping they get over a big injury / alot not playing in the spring .. 

Dilfer was in major trouble last year very close to getting canned .. he says he's going with Money Ball approach to roster rebuild and I translate that into 'its hail mary' time .. lot of coaching churn at position groups too .. team with no identity at all .. fan base more than pleased to get rid of this guy .. team very much at risk of quitting mid ssn and even if not the danger of playing portal Money Ball is even if you get the right group, its a bunch of individuals w no connection to UAB, they aren't thinking about this team's success they're thinking about their own highlight reel and an NIL deal somewhere else .. get my highlight tape and maybe sit out from there ?.. Just don't see much chance for that 'all in' team unity .. maybe if Dilfer is fired you'll get the next game effort .. There's also injury / depth risks esp at QB where if Kitna got hurt I don't know there to be much behind him and most units don't seem to have many guys that can be counted on .. Dilfer's turnaround plan involved taking better prospects off injury and many were out in the spring and feels like what he calls 'money ball' is more like a 'hail mary' for his coaching job ..

The schedule does make it possible to beat this total you have winnable games vs FCS, Akron, @FAU, @Rice, @Tulsa .. UAB is 0-12 on the road .. all wins have been at home vs easier competition and followed up with not just a road loss but 0-6 ATS as well .. very likely they will need to take down better competition at home .. Army, UNT, USF .. Army's spot is not great and could leave them a little vulnerable, but even w W there I'll be betting UAB turns around and loses @FAU on the road after a monster home win .. UNT / USF should be improved this year and those come B2B very late in the year, any mojo UAB has might have early on could run out at that point .. Pull a shocker vs USF I could see their finale @Tulsa being a real tough spot esp if all they're playing for is a 5th win at that pt.. Tulsa w new coach is looking for 'any wins' this ssn and think they'll def want to cap their ssn w a big W at home.. If things go real well and little luck I can see 6 wins at the most, but seems equally likely its a horror show and they check out with 2 .. Looking between those extremes think its just alot more likely Blazers putter to 3 or 4 wins rather than land a 5th ..