Week 4 : Anchor Teasers

Using as my anchors.

1. LAR +3 -125

2. BAL/KC under 55 -125

Satellites later.

I have a 3rd anchor this week.

3. TENN +13.5 -125  (generated from this query)

season>=2016 and AD and line

I have a 3rd anchor this week.

3. TENN +13.5 -125  (generated from this query)

season>=2016 and AD and line<oA(margin)-tA(margin) and p:HL and week<7 and op:AL and 9<line<2......23-1

Satellites:

1. HOU pk

2. NO +23.5

3. ATL over 38.5

4. GB over 40.5

5. HOU over 33

6. DEN -1

7. IND +10

8. WAS +4

9. LAC over 37

10. IND over 42

11. ARZ +5.5

12. SF +3

13. MIA +4

14. NE +1

15. CHI +7.5

16. SEA +7.5

17. BUF -10

18. DET -2

19. DEN over 37

20. GB pk

Think your line is  back asswards Buddy (9>line>2)

season>=2016 and AD and line

season>=2016 and AD and line

@jowchoo

 BAL/KC under 55 is good!

first half plays:

1. ARZ pk

2. SF -1.5

3. MIA -1

4. NE -3

5. CHI pk

6. LAR -2.5

21. CLEV +16

22. CINC +14

23. BUFF over 41

24. DET over 38

25. INDY under 56

26. HOU under 45

7. DEN -3.5

8. LAC -3.5

27. WASH under 50

28. LAC pk

29. ATL +4.5

30. LV +5.5

31. PITT over 34

This is the thing I don't get about the use of anchors. You can have a great week in terms of the number of plays that win and lose a bunch of money if the anchors don't come through. By my count this was anchors 1-2, but satellites 22-8, so 70 percent winners, but you went 0-30 and 0-30 on the two anchors that lost. I think you said last year that you just have to choose anchors better when you had the rare losing week, but I'm still not certain the better strategy isn't to pair (or even triple) plays without anchors.

@jowchoo

 I’m curious to know if this method is purely systematic or if you ever have to make a gut decision. I have seen this system be extremely successful so I don’t have any doubt that you know what you’re doing, but did the Titans anchor ever make you think that you just had to find something better? To tie so many bets to the possibly worst team in the league must be stressful. Some of the satellite plays seemed like they could have been a lower risk proposition (Det -4) as an anchor. Would you consider in the future passing on an anchor simply by using the “eye test”?

@brn2loslive2win

 these bad outcomes are part of the gaming reality.My only concern is the ROI at year end.

I had an early season implosion last year and stayed the course which produced a nice ROI.

It has been many years where this approach has tanked.

@brn2loslive2win

 There was a very bad beat in the under anchor.The team hopelessly behind was just running the ball to kill the clock in the last 90 seconds and broke an 80 yard td. A swing of about 51 units.

@jowchoo

 Awful beat and is exactly why I can’t justify betting o/u in the NFL unless I absolutely love the play. Took Det o44.5 last week, game lands 44. Took Gb o47.5 and won that one. That’ll probably be it for those for a while. Imo o/u are some of the most highly unpredictable plays you can make on an NFL game 

I also agree, but the data supports the regression of teams that become out of balance (+4 or -4) ats record for sides OR totals.

An interesting occurence, BALT is 4-0 to the over and Houston 4-0 to the under this year. They play each other this week.

A rare event in my scheme, what to do? Well the history shows by years end the team out of balance to the over is a stronger regression candidate.

Expect the 2nd quarter of the season to reverse this bad start.............................................gl

So if you type in team=Ravens and o:team=Texans it's 13-2 S/U, 10-5 ats and 4-9-2 OU, the total shows 40.5 and the +6 shows 12-3(80%) so are you saying history shows to play the OV, so you would drop the total to 33.5 and play OV, Am I right on that?

Also when you say teams that become out of balance (+4 or -4) ats are you say one team has 4 more wins than the other team or team A can be 5-3 ats and team B can be 1-7 so team A is +4 and does history say the 1-7 team is do so tease that team up or down?

If I remember right it take 4 or 5 weeks for this to kick in.

@hoody

 The regression candidates are NET

Out of balance for example 5-1 ATS is +4 and

2-6 is -4. Of the 4 categories, overs regress the most followed by winners then unders and finally losers.

@hoody

 A team that gets to +4 (net) overs has regressed the most and takes precedent over any other out of balance candidates.

However the change in the kickoff has improved field position for offenses and with 50 yard field goals normal now, I believe this is not baked into the cake yet.

@hoody

 A team that gets to +4 (net) overs has regressed the most and takes precedent over any other out of balance candidates.

However the change in the kickoff has improved field position for offenses and with 50 yard field goals normal now, I believe this is not baked into the cake yet.

So a team that is +4 and say the line is -4  and the total is 46 are you teasing the line on the dog to +10 and the total to under 51? what makes you cross the line to the favorite to +2 or the total to over 40, you said  Of the 4 categories, overs regress the most followed by winners then unders and finally losers. I'M guessing with Balt that you would drop the total and play over then if there a +4? And you're taking the winning team and on the line? so Bal would be -3.5 or do you make Hou +15.5 ?

My other question is don't you need to know all your anchors and satellites ahead at the same time ? Some anchors lines or totals change by the time your adding your satellites. And if i remember right you +EV is based on -120 last week you anchors where 125 so that's what I mean about the line moving. You can't play an anchor and then add a satellite later right. So in the long run if there a +4 are you playing against them to lose ats so your lowering the line and then playing them. Does this make any sense I hope so. 

@hoody

 I use open teasers when i establish my anchors,sometimes the anchors are -120 and other times they are -125.

If your anchor is +4 overs,then you ADD the insurance teaser points to the total and play UNDER

If your anchor is -4 losers, then you ADD the teaser points to the losing team and back them.

If your anchor is -4 unders, then you SUBTRACT from the total and play over

The lines so far this year have been very tight. If you look you will see out of balance

accounts are minimal ( near 50/50). Never in the last 10 years has there only been 2 anchor candidates

entering week 5. Hope this changes quickly!

You CAN add your satellite later as long as it follows the juice you used in your anchor.