Hmmm, do I like laying over a TD in rivalry games on a midweek TV game?
No, i hate doing that. But I can only look one way here.
I never cap on an injury. Especially to a QB. Back ups come in and win games all the time. But Mac has already done that 2 weeks ago and then they usually regress. I faded the 9ers vs the Jags as it was a bad division sandwich but i have to do it again.
One injury is fine, even to a QB but a rash of injuries is how entire seasons get derailed. When they pile up is when problems arise. This is the biggest game for the Rams since the Eagles game that they blew spectacularly.
The 9ers don't have enough firepower to do that. Get a decent lead at the half and you will not blow it vs this decimated offense.
The Rams have the 3rd most 3rd quarter points so far while SF has the 3rd least. The 3rd quarter is a very important thing in my capping formula. You don't do well in that quarter you can't protect a lead, you can't mount a comeback if you're losing, it sounds basic and it is. But the first drives of the 2nd half are so key.
Despite their FG disaster the Rams have an excellent kickoff unit pinning teams deeper than any other team with Kartys knuckle balls and on the other side SF has one of the worst opponents starting field position. If they fall behind they're gonna struggle to come back with these long fields.
The 9ers offense under Mac was anemic vs the Cardinals and they barely won that game, looked set to lose. The Rams have a better defense, offense and special teams unit than the Cards.
Yeah these games are usually close but I think SF lacks the offense to keep it close this time and loses by 2 scores.
Prop i like: Mac Jones to throw an INT 8/11
Staff longest completion over 36.5 yards 10/11
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