NOV 28

67-46    +1967

CH +7 -105

Good luck Raiders.  

Good luck 22

@Raiders22

 Stay hot 

@Raiders22

 Just curious to know if you’d play the Bears at +6.5. Do you need the full TD in this situation or do you really like the Bears to keep it close?

And how much do the WAR ratings play a factor here? The Eagles WAR is not great from what I read in your post the other day. And for good reason. With the absence of certain guys like Lane Johnson this team performs drastically different. But Chicago is banged up too. Do you feel that the Bears replacement players are good enough to not tilt the scale towards Philly?

@brn2loslive2win

 I think you would need +6.5 +114 to make it about right.  I would want the +7 in case of a push.  

I have to consider that PHL has only beat the Russell Wilson led NYG by more than 7 points.

With WAR efficiency numbers I do use it in one model to consider a team's matchup against another team, along with a lot of other efficiency numbers.

This also would have to take into account all 3 components of each side of the ball I look at and how they match up.

Consistency on both sides of the ball and within each component is important.

PHL does what it takes to beat a team.  If one thing is not working they use something else to beat you.  They also make very good adjustments.

CH is consistent and is surprisingly even on both sides of the ball.

For example:

PHL:

Pass 1.3

Rush .3

Rec .2

Pass D 1.0

Pass R 1.0

Run D .5

CHI:

Pass 1.7

Rush .2

Rec .7

Pass D  .5

Pass R  .5

Run D .6

Both teams are positive in all facets and both are fairly consistent.

I made the line PHL -5 and -4.5 on my models.

But there is always some concern that PHL will be VERY motivated after last week's HUGE letdown.

The other thing I think is in my favor is that it is supposed to still be somewhat windy.  I like the wind to be over 18-20 MPH to play the UNDER.

But I think even at 15-18 MPH this turns it into a lower scoring game and I think that helps CHI cover as well.

PHL has not been as explosive as last year and CHI is one of the best teams at not allowing explosive plays.

So, with all of that rambling, I would take +6.5 at a number I felt comfortable with but for a slightly smaller size.

@brn2loslive2win

 The other thing I would add is that the injury situation for CHI is on defense.  The offense is fully healthy and looks good.

PHL has simply not been overwhelming on offense.  Consistent in all areas, just not great.

But at home after the loss motivation could be huge.

But I do not see injuries on defense hurting CHI against a weaker offense.

@Raiders22

Nice one  looks like cash!

@joe pockets

 Thanks 

@Raiders22

 Red hot Raiders