7-3 on NFL yesterday. Hit both plays on the Sunday night game. Rolling that into Monday. I’m on Chiefs -3 at -130.
Kansas City just put a beating on the Ravens last week. That was not a fluke or a lucky cover. That was Mahomes stepping on the gas and the entire operation looking like the version that wins rings. He threw 4 touchdowns, protected the ball, and kept the chains moving at will. When this team is in rhythm, they are a problem for anyone. Jacksonville is not built to trade scores with that version of the Chiefs for 4 quarters.
The Chiefs offense right now is balanced and dangerous. The core is exactly what you want in a road favorite. Mahomes is seeing the field clean, Travis Kelce is still the matchup that forces you to pick a poison, and Isiah Pacheco gives them a downhill gear that travels. Marquise Brown has been the vertical and intermediate spark that stretches safeties and opens the middle for Kelce and the backs. Xavier Worthy is listed as questionable, so I am not counting on him being full go, but the route tree and spacing work even without him. Andy Reid has the screen game and the quick game tuned up again, so negative plays are limited and Mahomes stays ahead of the sticks.
The line deserves credit too. Kansas City has been cleaner the last 2 weeks in protection and in assignment football on early downs. That matters against Jacksonville because the Jaguars want to win first down with edge pressure and force long yardage. If you let Josh Allen and Travon Walker pin their ears back, your second half becomes a punt parade. The best way to beat that is what Kansas City just showed against Baltimore. Quick answers, tempo changes, and selective shot plays when safeties start creeping. If Jacksonville tries to live in man with a single high look, Mahomes is going to find leverage throws and keep ripping.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
7-3 on NFL yesterday. Hit both plays on the Sunday night game. Rolling that into Monday. I’m on Chiefs -3 at -130.
Kansas City just put a beating on the Ravens last week. That was not a fluke or a lucky cover. That was Mahomes stepping on the gas and the entire operation looking like the version that wins rings. He threw 4 touchdowns, protected the ball, and kept the chains moving at will. When this team is in rhythm, they are a problem for anyone. Jacksonville is not built to trade scores with that version of the Chiefs for 4 quarters.
The Chiefs offense right now is balanced and dangerous. The core is exactly what you want in a road favorite. Mahomes is seeing the field clean, Travis Kelce is still the matchup that forces you to pick a poison, and Isiah Pacheco gives them a downhill gear that travels. Marquise Brown has been the vertical and intermediate spark that stretches safeties and opens the middle for Kelce and the backs. Xavier Worthy is listed as questionable, so I am not counting on him being full go, but the route tree and spacing work even without him. Andy Reid has the screen game and the quick game tuned up again, so negative plays are limited and Mahomes stays ahead of the sticks.
The line deserves credit too. Kansas City has been cleaner the last 2 weeks in protection and in assignment football on early downs. That matters against Jacksonville because the Jaguars want to win first down with edge pressure and force long yardage. If you let Josh Allen and Travon Walker pin their ears back, your second half becomes a punt parade. The best way to beat that is what Kansas City just showed against Baltimore. Quick answers, tempo changes, and selective shot plays when safeties start creeping. If Jacksonville tries to live in man with a single high look, Mahomes is going to find leverage throws and keep ripping.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense is better than the market is giving them credit for. Chris Jones still wrecks protection plans from the inside and that makes life easier for everyone behind him. Trent McDuffie is playing sticky coverage and they rally to the ball with speed. The last 2 games they have tightened up in the red zone, gotten off the field on third and medium, and created short fields for the offense. That is the profile of a team that can build and protect a lead on the road.
Jacksonville is not a walkover. Trevor Lawrence can deal when he is in rhythm and he has a real weapon in Travis Etienne. Etienne is explosive to the edge and can hurt you as a receiver. Christian Kirk is still a chain mover out of the slot and Evan Engram puts stress on linebackers. The Jaguars also come in with a strong turnover margin so far, which has covered up some of the inconsistency. That said, there are cracks. Lawrence will hold the ball when his first read is covered and that is where Jones and the interior rush can change drives. If the Jaguars fall into second and long or third and long repeatedly, the sack and turnover risk goes up fast.
Key matchup one is Chiefs interior rush against Jacksonville protections. If Kansas City wins that in the first half, Lawrence starts speeding up and the ball comes out short of the sticks. That flips field position and plays right into what the Chiefs want to do. Key matchup two is Pacheco and the Chiefs screen game against Jacksonville pursuit. If the Chiefs are steady on first down with 4 to 6 yard wins, the playbook stays open and Reid can keep the Jaguars on their heels. Key matchup three is situational football. Kansas City has been sharper the last 2 weeks on third down and in the red zone. Jacksonville has leaned on turnovers. If that regresses toward even, Kansas City’s efficiency gap shows up on the scoreboard.
Game flow I expect is pretty straightforward. Chiefs start fast with scripted touches for Kelce and Pacheco. Jacksonville answers a couple of times with Etienne and boot action, but the Chiefs defense tightens in the red zone and forces kicks. As the game moves into the late second and third quarter, Mahomes gets a coverage bust or two off play action and one of Brown or Kelce cashes a chunk play. That is the separation window. From there Kansas City leans on Pacheco to salt clock, and the pass rush gets to tee off when Jacksonville has to chase.
Risks to the ticket are mostly about ball security and a late scratch. If the Chiefs get sloppy with the ball, Jacksonville can hang because their defense has been opportunistic. If Worthy sits, it lowers the raw speed quotient, but it does not break the plan because Brown and Kelce can carry the target load and Pacheco can close. Weather could make the field a little slick, which generally favors the cleaner offense and the better screen team. That tilts to Kansas City in my view.
I am laying 3 at -130 because I want to erase the hook and I trust Kansas City to handle business for 60 minutes. Mahomes is the side I want in a tight game, Reid has the better 2 minute and end of half script, and the Chiefs defense is trending up at exactly the right time.
Final pick is Chiefs -3 at -130.
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On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense is better than the market is giving them credit for. Chris Jones still wrecks protection plans from the inside and that makes life easier for everyone behind him. Trent McDuffie is playing sticky coverage and they rally to the ball with speed. The last 2 games they have tightened up in the red zone, gotten off the field on third and medium, and created short fields for the offense. That is the profile of a team that can build and protect a lead on the road.
Jacksonville is not a walkover. Trevor Lawrence can deal when he is in rhythm and he has a real weapon in Travis Etienne. Etienne is explosive to the edge and can hurt you as a receiver. Christian Kirk is still a chain mover out of the slot and Evan Engram puts stress on linebackers. The Jaguars also come in with a strong turnover margin so far, which has covered up some of the inconsistency. That said, there are cracks. Lawrence will hold the ball when his first read is covered and that is where Jones and the interior rush can change drives. If the Jaguars fall into second and long or third and long repeatedly, the sack and turnover risk goes up fast.
Key matchup one is Chiefs interior rush against Jacksonville protections. If Kansas City wins that in the first half, Lawrence starts speeding up and the ball comes out short of the sticks. That flips field position and plays right into what the Chiefs want to do. Key matchup two is Pacheco and the Chiefs screen game against Jacksonville pursuit. If the Chiefs are steady on first down with 4 to 6 yard wins, the playbook stays open and Reid can keep the Jaguars on their heels. Key matchup three is situational football. Kansas City has been sharper the last 2 weeks on third down and in the red zone. Jacksonville has leaned on turnovers. If that regresses toward even, Kansas City’s efficiency gap shows up on the scoreboard.
Game flow I expect is pretty straightforward. Chiefs start fast with scripted touches for Kelce and Pacheco. Jacksonville answers a couple of times with Etienne and boot action, but the Chiefs defense tightens in the red zone and forces kicks. As the game moves into the late second and third quarter, Mahomes gets a coverage bust or two off play action and one of Brown or Kelce cashes a chunk play. That is the separation window. From there Kansas City leans on Pacheco to salt clock, and the pass rush gets to tee off when Jacksonville has to chase.
Risks to the ticket are mostly about ball security and a late scratch. If the Chiefs get sloppy with the ball, Jacksonville can hang because their defense has been opportunistic. If Worthy sits, it lowers the raw speed quotient, but it does not break the plan because Brown and Kelce can carry the target load and Pacheco can close. Weather could make the field a little slick, which generally favors the cleaner offense and the better screen team. That tilts to Kansas City in my view.
I am laying 3 at -130 because I want to erase the hook and I trust Kansas City to handle business for 60 minutes. Mahomes is the side I want in a tight game, Reid has the better 2 minute and end of half script, and the Chiefs defense is trending up at exactly the right time.
Ugh I have been building some prediction models and writeup tools to help with my posts and they are still in their early stages. Not gonna lie I knew Kirk is not on the Jags but missed that Engram was gone too. Good catch.
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Quote Originally Posted by paperprophets:
Kirk and Engram don't play for the Jags anymore
Ugh I have been building some prediction models and writeup tools to help with my posts and they are still in their early stages. Not gonna lie I knew Kirk is not on the Jags but missed that Engram was gone too. Good catch.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense is better than the market is giving them credit for. Chris Jones still wrecks protection plans from the inside and that makes life easier for everyone behind him. Trent McDuffie is playing sticky coverage and they rally to the ball with speed. The last 2 games they have tightened up in the red zone, gotten off the field on third and medium, and created short fields for the offense. That is the profile of a team that can build and protect a lead on the road. Jacksonville is not a walkover. Trevor Lawrence can deal when he is in rhythm and he has a real weapon in Travis Etienne. Etienne is explosive to the edge and can hurt you as a receiver. Christian Kirk is still a chain mover out of the slot and Evan Engram puts stress on linebackers. The Jaguars also come in with a strong turnover margin so far, which has covered up some of the inconsistency. That said, there are cracks. Lawrence will hold the ball when his first read is covered and that is where Jones and the interior rush can change drives. If the Jaguars fall into second and long or third and long repeatedly, the sack and turnover risk goes up fast. Key matchup one is Chiefs interior rush against Jacksonville protections. If Kansas City wins that in the first half, Lawrence starts speeding up and the ball comes out short of the sticks. That flips field position and plays right into what the Chiefs want to do. Key matchup two is Pacheco and the Chiefs screen game against Jacksonville pursuit. If the Chiefs are steady on first down with 4 to 6 yard wins, the playbook stays open and Reid can keep the Jaguars on their heels. Key matchup three is situational football. Kansas City has been sharper the last 2 weeks on third down and in the red zone. Jacksonville has leaned on turnovers. If that regresses toward even, Kansas City’s efficiency gap shows up on the scoreboard. Game flow I expect is pretty straightforward. Chiefs start fast with scripted touches for Kelce and Pacheco. Jacksonville answers a couple of times with Etienne and boot action, but the Chiefs defense tightens in the red zone and forces kicks. As the game moves into the late second and third quarter, Mahomes gets a coverage bust or two off play action and one of Brown or Kelce cashes a chunk play. That is the separation window. From there Kansas City leans on Pacheco to salt clock, and the pass rush gets to tee off when Jacksonville has to chase. Risks to the ticket are mostly about ball security and a late scratch. If the Chiefs get sloppy with the ball, Jacksonville can hang because their defense has been opportunistic. If Worthy sits, it lowers the raw speed quotient, but it does not break the plan because Brown and Kelce can carry the target load and Pacheco can close. Weather could make the field a little slick, which generally favors the cleaner offense and the better screen team. That tilts to Kansas City in my view. I am laying 3 at -130 because I want to erase the hook and I trust Kansas City to handle business for 60 minutes. Mahomes is the side I want in a tight game, Reid has the better 2 minute and end of half script, and the Chiefs defense is trending up at exactly the right time. Final pick is Chiefs -3 at -130.
Did you just use ChatGPT or Google to google this stuff up? Because this made no sense, brother. But you pick the Chiefs, so good luck to us.
0
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense is better than the market is giving them credit for. Chris Jones still wrecks protection plans from the inside and that makes life easier for everyone behind him. Trent McDuffie is playing sticky coverage and they rally to the ball with speed. The last 2 games they have tightened up in the red zone, gotten off the field on third and medium, and created short fields for the offense. That is the profile of a team that can build and protect a lead on the road. Jacksonville is not a walkover. Trevor Lawrence can deal when he is in rhythm and he has a real weapon in Travis Etienne. Etienne is explosive to the edge and can hurt you as a receiver. Christian Kirk is still a chain mover out of the slot and Evan Engram puts stress on linebackers. The Jaguars also come in with a strong turnover margin so far, which has covered up some of the inconsistency. That said, there are cracks. Lawrence will hold the ball when his first read is covered and that is where Jones and the interior rush can change drives. If the Jaguars fall into second and long or third and long repeatedly, the sack and turnover risk goes up fast. Key matchup one is Chiefs interior rush against Jacksonville protections. If Kansas City wins that in the first half, Lawrence starts speeding up and the ball comes out short of the sticks. That flips field position and plays right into what the Chiefs want to do. Key matchup two is Pacheco and the Chiefs screen game against Jacksonville pursuit. If the Chiefs are steady on first down with 4 to 6 yard wins, the playbook stays open and Reid can keep the Jaguars on their heels. Key matchup three is situational football. Kansas City has been sharper the last 2 weeks on third down and in the red zone. Jacksonville has leaned on turnovers. If that regresses toward even, Kansas City’s efficiency gap shows up on the scoreboard. Game flow I expect is pretty straightforward. Chiefs start fast with scripted touches for Kelce and Pacheco. Jacksonville answers a couple of times with Etienne and boot action, but the Chiefs defense tightens in the red zone and forces kicks. As the game moves into the late second and third quarter, Mahomes gets a coverage bust or two off play action and one of Brown or Kelce cashes a chunk play. That is the separation window. From there Kansas City leans on Pacheco to salt clock, and the pass rush gets to tee off when Jacksonville has to chase. Risks to the ticket are mostly about ball security and a late scratch. If the Chiefs get sloppy with the ball, Jacksonville can hang because their defense has been opportunistic. If Worthy sits, it lowers the raw speed quotient, but it does not break the plan because Brown and Kelce can carry the target load and Pacheco can close. Weather could make the field a little slick, which generally favors the cleaner offense and the better screen team. That tilts to Kansas City in my view. I am laying 3 at -130 because I want to erase the hook and I trust Kansas City to handle business for 60 minutes. Mahomes is the side I want in a tight game, Reid has the better 2 minute and end of half script, and the Chiefs defense is trending up at exactly the right time. Final pick is Chiefs -3 at -130.
Did you just use ChatGPT or Google to google this stuff up? Because this made no sense, brother. But you pick the Chiefs, so good luck to us.
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