Be OK with losing........It Is Profitable

Is this a common theme in your betting strategy? To sell multiple points? Are the amount of points that you sell based on key numbers? What would make you sell to -7 instead of -6.5? Would you agree that selling to -6.5 gives you a better chance of winning(understood that the price is significantly better when you lay 7)? Would you consider in that scenario to make two bets, one at -6.5 and one at -7 just as added protection?

Ty for the insight. I always enjoy reading your posts 

@unplucked_gem

 Here’s a bonus question-

Do you believe that key numbers in the NFL are becoming less significant with the amount of 2pt attempts and the amount of missed XPs? Seems that 1 and 2 point margins are becoming a regular occurrence.

@brn2loslive2win

 Sport dependent but probably 75% of my wagers are alternate lines.  Strictly as a matter of personal preference, I try to avoid half points when I can. Half point losses are the only thing that historically tilts me and I am perfectly ok with pushes (6.5 vs. 7 question). 

There is an amount of finesse involved in pushing the line but not too far, which is where my reliance on the model comes into play.  Then it would all depend on the book number vs. what the model says.  I have been reliant on the same sharp for modeling the last 7 years and to me the model is proven. 

Does it always win, no.  But again, I am process driven to make sound wagers with little concern over what I cannot control (in this case outcome).  If the book line is -3 and the model says -9, anything -6 to -9 becomes prudent.

Van has a much more robust take on key numbers than I do.  I honestly do not pay attention or care. 

Does it hurt me, can't say.  What I do works and more importantly works for me.  To completely toot my own horn (not really just most recent posted example) the model saw a blow out in the super bowl and we cashed in nicely.  But to your bonus question, I have become cognizant of the XP problems and often will err on the side of caution and move to -6 rather than -7. 

In the end my average odds puts me at needing 43-45% to be profitable and I tend to hit anywhere from 48.5-55% over any given 1000 wagers.

Here is Van's post about the keys.  Please be guided accordingly:

Key number distribution chart from the 2022 regular nfl season - key numbers - NFL Betting Forum | Covers

Thanks for the collaborative and thoughtful conversation.  

@unplucked_gem

 I have gathered some wonderful information over the years from guys like van and yourself. This is what covers should be about. The other nonsense should be left at the door.