Posted:
#1
My NFL picks went 1-3 over the first two weeks of the season before proceeding to go 10-2 over the last two weeks. So my overall record now stands at 11-5, which is just below a 70% success rate. Here’s one important thing I’ve learned throughout my sports investing career: never get too excited about your winning streaks, and never get overly depressed over your slumps. So let’s keep a cool head and do our best to continue our winning ways on Week #5 in the NFL!
PICK #1: Indianapolis Colts -1 against the San Francisco 49ers
There is a lot to like about this play:
- This match is going to be San Francisco’s 3rd road game over their past 4 contests (also a second in a row).
- The game will be played at 1pm Eastern Time, which amounts to 10am for a 49ers team coming all the way from the West Coast.
- The Colts were doing well in Seattle last Sunday night before completely collapsing near the end of the third quarter, en route to a 46-18 loss. In my opinion, teams that get crushed tend to rebound the following week because of better focus and attention to details when executing plays.
- Each team’s two non-conference road games are probably the least motivating matches of the season because the playoff implications are not as vital, and there is usually no rivalry. Sure, the same could be said with respect to the home team, but playing in front of your crowd keeps your mind more focused.
- The 49ers are coming off three games in which they faced their division opponents, so is a letdown possible here?
In injury news, 49ers running back Carlos Hyde was limited in practice because of a hip injury, but he should be good to go. Meanwhile, Indy’s starting tight end Jack Doyle should also be in the lineup despite being limited because of a concussion.
The action is fairly split between the two teams with slightly more bets coming on the Colts.
For what it’s worth (probably not much), Indy has won the last 3 matchups against the Niners by an average of 16 points.
PICK #2: Cleveland Browns pick’em against the New York Jets
I also like this pick a lot. Some people expected the Jets to go 0-16 this season, but they are surprisingly sitting on a 2-2 record after beating Miami 20-6 and Jacksonville 23-20 in overtime. I do expect a letdown from the Jets following those two wins that may make them feel too good about themselves. Add in the fact that New York may be looking ahead to its games against New England, Miami, Atlanta and Buffalo (their three divisional opponents, plus a very strong Falcons team), and you have a nice recipe for a trap game when facing a 0-4 team.
In their first home game, the Browns did well in a 21-18 loss to Pittsburgh. However, the wheels came off last week in a 31-7 beating against the Bengals. They won’t let the same thing happen two times in a row at home against a very beatable opponent.
Cleveland may also be looking for revenge following a 31-28 home loss to those same Jets in 2016.
As a contrarian, I like the fact that 70% of gamblers are taking New York. Grab the Browns, please.
PICK #3: Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 at the Pittsburgh Steelers
Generally speaking, I like betting teams coming off a bad loss facing a team coming off a great win. That’s exactly the case here. After looking great in London against Baltimore, the Jags lost in overtime to the lowly Jets last week. As for the Steelers, they must be feeling good about themselves after handling easily their archrivals in Baltimore. Notice how this could be seen as a “sandwich” game for Pittsburgh since they were playing the Ravens last week and are traveling to Kansas City next week. A setback is possible. Close to 55% of the bets are going Pittsburgh’s way. I’m a bit worried about the status of WR Marqise Lee who may not be able to play because of a rib injury.
0
Hot Forum Topics
