Crazy day yesterday and will take the 2-2 split for a little loss. I have been just waiting for my First Five Lines to become available this morning so I could make this play:
Phillies First Five -115
Cole Hamels seems to be rounding into form. Henderson Avarez is mostly a gas can with a good or great start sprinkled in here and there. He has been hit pretty good in 3 of last 4 with a masterpiece thrown in the middle. He has been bailed out by the Marlins bats, but I don't think that is going to happen here. If he comes out as the 2nd Coming of Pedro Martinez today, then fine, whatever, but I will take my chances. The Marlins home record and 9-4 team record vs lefties is most likely holding this line down in my opinion. Big edge on the front side of this game and no reason for me to let this one get to the Bullpens.
There will be more as the day goes on just wanted to get this one up now. Thoughts and Opinions about this or any of the games today is always appreciated. Best of luck.
Crazy day yesterday and will take the 2-2 split for a little loss. I have been just waiting for my First Five Lines to become available this morning so I could make this play:
Phillies First Five -115
Cole Hamels seems to be rounding into form. Henderson Avarez is mostly a gas can with a good or great start sprinkled in here and there. He has been hit pretty good in 3 of last 4 with a masterpiece thrown in the middle. He has been bailed out by the Marlins bats, but I don't think that is going to happen here. If he comes out as the 2nd Coming of Pedro Martinez today, then fine, whatever, but I will take my chances. The Marlins home record and 9-4 team record vs lefties is most likely holding this line down in my opinion. Big edge on the front side of this game and no reason for me to let this one get to the Bullpens.
There will be more as the day goes on just wanted to get this one up now. Thoughts and Opinions about this or any of the games today is always appreciated. Best of luck.
Crazy day yesterday and will take the 2-2 split for a little loss. I have been just waiting for my First Five Lines to become available this morning so I could make this play:
Phillies First Five -115
Cole Hamels seems to be rounding into form. Henderson Avarez is mostly a gas can with a good or great start sprinkled in here and there. He has been hit pretty good in 3 of last 4 with a masterpiece thrown in the middle. He has been bailed out by the Marlins bats, but I don't think that is going to happen here. If he comes out as the 2nd Coming of Pedro Martinez today, then fine, whatever, but I will take my chances. The Marlins home record and 9-4 team record vs lefties is most likely holding this line down in my opinion. Big edge on the front side of this game and no reason for me to let this one get to the Bullpens.
There will be more as the day goes on just wanted to get this one up now. Thoughts and Opinions about this or any of the games today is always appreciated. Best of luck.
I like this play. On top of the fact that phillies have hit Alvarez well in past. I'm considering taking the under as well but everyone and their brother on under which makes me reluctant. GL
Crazy day yesterday and will take the 2-2 split for a little loss. I have been just waiting for my First Five Lines to become available this morning so I could make this play:
Phillies First Five -115
Cole Hamels seems to be rounding into form. Henderson Avarez is mostly a gas can with a good or great start sprinkled in here and there. He has been hit pretty good in 3 of last 4 with a masterpiece thrown in the middle. He has been bailed out by the Marlins bats, but I don't think that is going to happen here. If he comes out as the 2nd Coming of Pedro Martinez today, then fine, whatever, but I will take my chances. The Marlins home record and 9-4 team record vs lefties is most likely holding this line down in my opinion. Big edge on the front side of this game and no reason for me to let this one get to the Bullpens.
There will be more as the day goes on just wanted to get this one up now. Thoughts and Opinions about this or any of the games today is always appreciated. Best of luck.
I like this play. On top of the fact that phillies have hit Alvarez well in past. I'm considering taking the under as well but everyone and their brother on under which makes me reluctant. GL
Cb- Glad you like it, While I am not much of a totals player I would have a hard time playing an under in an Alvarez game. Just better to stay away and kick yourself if it hits in my humble opinion. Early Day game on getaway and Hamels has to be the public angle that is getting under attention and they may be right but it isn't worth my dollars.
Cb- Glad you like it, While I am not much of a totals player I would have a hard time playing an under in an Alvarez game. Just better to stay away and kick yourself if it hits in my humble opinion. Early Day game on getaway and Hamels has to be the public angle that is getting under attention and they may be right but it isn't worth my dollars.
On the other side of this game its hard to go against Marlins at home especially against a left handed pitcher .Cole Hamels has throw too many pitches in his last 2 starts for me to back i'm staying with the hot team at home despite there starter. Best of Luck
On the other side of this game its hard to go against Marlins at home especially against a left handed pitcher .Cole Hamels has throw too many pitches in his last 2 starts for me to back i'm staying with the hot team at home despite there starter. Best of Luck
I will take the push, always better than a loss. Feel like the game switches to advantage Marlins in a tied late situation which is why i played first five. Be back later with another play or two, a little running around to do before I finalize.
I will take the push, always better than a loss. Feel like the game switches to advantage Marlins in a tied late situation which is why i played first five. Be back later with another play or two, a little running around to do before I finalize.
Nice call today man. I agree with your logic 100% with Phils f5 and Marlins FG. New to the forum, just wanted to pop in and say whats up and GL with the rest of your plays today
Nice call today man. I agree with your logic 100% with Phils f5 and Marlins FG. New to the forum, just wanted to pop in and say whats up and GL with the rest of your plays today
Crazy day yesterday and will take the 2-2 split for a little loss. I have been just waiting for my First Five Lines to become available this morning so I could make this play:
Phillies First Five -115
Cole Hamels seems to be rounding into form. Henderson Avarez is mostly a gas can with a good or great start sprinkled in here and there. He has been hit pretty good in 3 of last 4 with a masterpiece thrown in the middle. He has been bailed out by the Marlins bats, but I don't think that is going to happen here. If he comes out as the 2nd Coming of Pedro Martinez today, then fine, whatever, but I will take my chances. The Marlins home record and 9-4 team record vs lefties is most likely holding this line down in my opinion. Big edge on the front side of this game and no reason for me to let this one get to the Bullpens.
There will be more as the day goes on just wanted to get this one up now. Thoughts and Opinions about this or any of the games today is always appreciated. Best of luck.
Hey bud, I enjoy write ups and appreciate you sharing your knowledge of the game and wagering on it.
This PHIL/MARL game is a tight defensive match and unfortunately even though the phils got more hits in the 1st 5, not able to convert. Good pick on the game and I'll take a PUSH over a LOSS any day of the week.
Crazy day yesterday and will take the 2-2 split for a little loss. I have been just waiting for my First Five Lines to become available this morning so I could make this play:
Phillies First Five -115
Cole Hamels seems to be rounding into form. Henderson Avarez is mostly a gas can with a good or great start sprinkled in here and there. He has been hit pretty good in 3 of last 4 with a masterpiece thrown in the middle. He has been bailed out by the Marlins bats, but I don't think that is going to happen here. If he comes out as the 2nd Coming of Pedro Martinez today, then fine, whatever, but I will take my chances. The Marlins home record and 9-4 team record vs lefties is most likely holding this line down in my opinion. Big edge on the front side of this game and no reason for me to let this one get to the Bullpens.
There will be more as the day goes on just wanted to get this one up now. Thoughts and Opinions about this or any of the games today is always appreciated. Best of luck.
Hey bud, I enjoy write ups and appreciate you sharing your knowledge of the game and wagering on it.
This PHIL/MARL game is a tight defensive match and unfortunately even though the phils got more hits in the 1st 5, not able to convert. Good pick on the game and I'll take a PUSH over a LOSS any day of the week.
C Dawg- Thanks man! If Cole Hammels doesn't get thrown out tryi g to go to 3rd with nobody out we have a good shot at scratching out a run there. Marlins win game so it makes the push look even better, but it's still 0 dollars...
Key- Gonna post them now, one of the write ups is gonna be a little long winded sales job...
C Dawg- Thanks man! If Cole Hammels doesn't get thrown out tryi g to go to 3rd with nobody out we have a good shot at scratching out a run there. Marlins win game so it makes the push look even better, but it's still 0 dollars...
Key- Gonna post them now, one of the write ups is gonna be a little long winded sales job...
Cleveland coming off an emotional sweep of Detroit and now they get to take their taxed bullpen,a struggling Masterson on short rest, and their league worst .627 OPS vs lefties to Baltimore to face Chen and a Baltimore team that found its bats in Pittsburgh. Sign me up.
Arizona Diamondbacks + 140
Let's have some fun:
Pitcher A ERA 4.94 Whip 1.28 K/9 7.1 BB/9 3.0 hitters vs249/.311/.454
Pitcher B ERA 3.67 Whip 1.31 K/9 8.8 BB/9 3.2 hitters vs248/.318/.367
Pitcher A War 0 Pitcher B War .1
So we have two guys here who are relatively close. Pitcher B slightly better but is it really worth -150? Then factor in the Cardinals 2nd worst in the major OPS vs lefties at .640 and I say definitely not. So I take the slightly worse pit her but have a slight offensive advantage in this game. The bullpens both got worked a bit yesterday and Arizona actually has the fresher arms after the game. Of course St. Louis has a nice advantage in the earned runs and slugging percentages against the relievers, but this is a spot where I can see Thatcher, Ziegler and Reed holding down the fort for a victory. With everything considered I will take a chance at a 42 percent needed win probability to break even at plus 140 and feel I have an edge on that number closer to 50 today.
I guess that wasn't too long, just stat heavy and time consuming.
Good luck to everyone and thoughts and opinions always welcomed. I still have the two late games to look at but with a few things on the plate today I may or may not even look at them for a play, though one does have my eye at first glance.
Cleveland coming off an emotional sweep of Detroit and now they get to take their taxed bullpen,a struggling Masterson on short rest, and their league worst .627 OPS vs lefties to Baltimore to face Chen and a Baltimore team that found its bats in Pittsburgh. Sign me up.
Arizona Diamondbacks + 140
Let's have some fun:
Pitcher A ERA 4.94 Whip 1.28 K/9 7.1 BB/9 3.0 hitters vs249/.311/.454
Pitcher B ERA 3.67 Whip 1.31 K/9 8.8 BB/9 3.2 hitters vs248/.318/.367
Pitcher A War 0 Pitcher B War .1
So we have two guys here who are relatively close. Pitcher B slightly better but is it really worth -150? Then factor in the Cardinals 2nd worst in the major OPS vs lefties at .640 and I say definitely not. So I take the slightly worse pit her but have a slight offensive advantage in this game. The bullpens both got worked a bit yesterday and Arizona actually has the fresher arms after the game. Of course St. Louis has a nice advantage in the earned runs and slugging percentages against the relievers, but this is a spot where I can see Thatcher, Ziegler and Reed holding down the fort for a victory. With everything considered I will take a chance at a 42 percent needed win probability to break even at plus 140 and feel I have an edge on that number closer to 50 today.
I guess that wasn't too long, just stat heavy and time consuming.
Good luck to everyone and thoughts and opinions always welcomed. I still have the two late games to look at but with a few things on the plate today I may or may not even look at them for a play, though one does have my eye at first glance.
push on under too. better than loss. I got smoked on tigers game. 0-1-1 for the day.
Well hopefully tonight will be better. I almost posted a warning on the Tigers today but decided not to. I did mention in someone's thread that the game was scary. The only reason I didn't play the game was because I didn't want to play the game just on my suspicions, though I should have put more trust in my eyes in retrospect. Ray had good numbers but his stuff still needs work. He was fortunate in that Minnesota and Houston missed good hitters pitchers in both starts in my opinion. The kid has a good arm and middle of the rotation potential from what I see but he still needs some triple A seasoning and it showed today big time.
push on under too. better than loss. I got smoked on tigers game. 0-1-1 for the day.
Well hopefully tonight will be better. I almost posted a warning on the Tigers today but decided not to. I did mention in someone's thread that the game was scary. The only reason I didn't play the game was because I didn't want to play the game just on my suspicions, though I should have put more trust in my eyes in retrospect. Ray had good numbers but his stuff still needs work. He was fortunate in that Minnesota and Houston missed good hitters pitchers in both starts in my opinion. The kid has a good arm and middle of the rotation potential from what I see but he still needs some triple A seasoning and it showed today big time.
I had plans on fading both Detroit and Cleveland today, but work got in the way of the first one. Looks like a good spot for a play on the O's. Good luck tonight, Mike.
I had plans on fading both Detroit and Cleveland today, but work got in the way of the first one. Looks like a good spot for a play on the O's. Good luck tonight, Mike.
push on under too. better than loss. I got smoked on tigers game. 0-1-1 for the day.
I got burnt by the tigers today as well. I was on the fence between DET and TEX and talked myself into letting the tigers prove themselves again. Bust! LOL
push on under too. better than loss. I got smoked on tigers game. 0-1-1 for the day.
I got burnt by the tigers today as well. I was on the fence between DET and TEX and talked myself into letting the tigers prove themselves again. Bust! LOL
Cleveland coming off an emotional sweep of Detroit and now they get to take their taxed bullpen,a struggling Masterson on short rest, and their league worst .627 OPS vs lefties to Baltimore to face Chen and a Baltimore team that found its bats in Pittsburgh. Sign me up.
Arizona Diamondbacks + 140
Let's have some fun:
Pitcher A ERA 4.94 Whip 1.28 K/9 7.1 BB/9 3.0 hitters vs249/.311/.454
Pitcher B ERA 3.67 Whip 1.31 K/9 8.8 BB/9 3.2 hitters vs248/.318/.367
Pitcher A War 0 Pitcher B War .1
So we have two guys here who are relatively close. Pitcher B slightly better but is it really worth -150? Then factor in the Cardinals 2nd worst in the major OPS vs lefties at .640 and I say definitely not. So I take the slightly worse pit her but have a slight offensive advantage in this game. The bullpens both got worked a bit yesterday and Arizona actually has the fresher arms after the game. Of course St. Louis has a nice advantage in the earned runs and slugging percentages against the relievers, but this is a spot where I can see Thatcher, Ziegler and Reed holding down the fort for a victory. With everything considered I will take a chance at a 42 percent needed win probability to break even at plus 140 and feel I have an edge on that number closer to 50 today.
I guess that wasn't too long, just stat heavy and time consuming.
Good luck to everyone and thoughts and opinions always welcomed. I still have the two late games to look at but with a few things on the plate today I may or may not even look at them for a play, though one does have my eye at first glance.
Hey now, love the let down play and Baltimore looks to be revving, already took them and now I am even more confident.
Also had Arizona in play, I like the pick. Good stuff TigerMike and thanks for sharing.
Cleveland coming off an emotional sweep of Detroit and now they get to take their taxed bullpen,a struggling Masterson on short rest, and their league worst .627 OPS vs lefties to Baltimore to face Chen and a Baltimore team that found its bats in Pittsburgh. Sign me up.
Arizona Diamondbacks + 140
Let's have some fun:
Pitcher A ERA 4.94 Whip 1.28 K/9 7.1 BB/9 3.0 hitters vs249/.311/.454
Pitcher B ERA 3.67 Whip 1.31 K/9 8.8 BB/9 3.2 hitters vs248/.318/.367
Pitcher A War 0 Pitcher B War .1
So we have two guys here who are relatively close. Pitcher B slightly better but is it really worth -150? Then factor in the Cardinals 2nd worst in the major OPS vs lefties at .640 and I say definitely not. So I take the slightly worse pit her but have a slight offensive advantage in this game. The bullpens both got worked a bit yesterday and Arizona actually has the fresher arms after the game. Of course St. Louis has a nice advantage in the earned runs and slugging percentages against the relievers, but this is a spot where I can see Thatcher, Ziegler and Reed holding down the fort for a victory. With everything considered I will take a chance at a 42 percent needed win probability to break even at plus 140 and feel I have an edge on that number closer to 50 today.
I guess that wasn't too long, just stat heavy and time consuming.
Good luck to everyone and thoughts and opinions always welcomed. I still have the two late games to look at but with a few things on the plate today I may or may not even look at them for a play, though one does have my eye at first glance.
Hey now, love the let down play and Baltimore looks to be revving, already took them and now I am even more confident.
Also had Arizona in play, I like the pick. Good stuff TigerMike and thanks for sharing.
Well, OK, here's my 2 cents nobody asked for, lol. I have been kicking my own arse all day for not jumping Texas, it made all the sense in the world. B'more I will admit to liking even though they are down 3-0 early, but, a long way to go in that one. Not crazy about the D-backs but that is probably because I live close enough to smell them and felt all winter they were headed for oblivion. Call it bias but it is the way I feel. At least you have their best chucker on the hill tonight so who knows? If I had a really strong lean on the Cardinals I would say so, but it ain't there so the only sensible side is the dog. Bow Wow, Woof Woof. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Well, OK, here's my 2 cents nobody asked for, lol. I have been kicking my own arse all day for not jumping Texas, it made all the sense in the world. B'more I will admit to liking even though they are down 3-0 early, but, a long way to go in that one. Not crazy about the D-backs but that is probably because I live close enough to smell them and felt all winter they were headed for oblivion. Call it bias but it is the way I feel. At least you have their best chucker on the hill tonight so who knows? If I had a really strong lean on the Cardinals I would say so, but it ain't there so the only sensible side is the dog. Bow Wow, Woof Woof. BOL
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