The moneyline for this contest implies a 55.9% chance of a victory for the Padres. San Diego is 58-38 this season when entering a game favored by -127 or more on the moneyline. San Francisco has a win-loss record of 17-31 when favored by +107 or worse by oddsmakers this year. Dunkel's Pick: San Diego (-129).
Steele's ability to rack up strikeouts will be crucial to his success in this outing and also presents the biggest edge in the matchup.
Steele is not getting much respect due to the Braves' prowess and his recent performances, but his strikeout total is far too low. Steele has recorded at least five strikeouts in 21 of his 29 starts this season.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -262, which is immense value on the current price. In addition, I have formed a consensus projection of 5.6 strikeouts for Steele in this outing, so backing him is a very strong angle. BY D.Ziefel
The Rockies do not have the pitching staff to contend with a roster that absolutely slugs right-handed pitching. Brent Suter is the only active left-handed reliever in the Rockies’ bullpen.
Otherwise, this matchup is simply skewed to Los Angeles. Regardless of who the Dodgers throw, the moneyline will be far too steep.
Take their team total over to 6. by D.J James
Though the Angels have been dreadful at the plate over the last two weeks, I do think the conditions for both offenses to perform are fantastic. Each starting pitcher has some massive flaws, and in a hitter-friendly environment I do think the over is very much in play.
The Rangers' excellence against left-handed pitchers coupled with their supreme plate discipline should really make life difficult on Sandoval, who has allowed 10 walks and 26 hits in 18 2/3 innings this month. While he's kept the ball in the yard for the most part, the Rangers should have no issues loading up the bases with runners.
On the other side, Gray's concerning fly-ball numbers should make this one a great spot to believe in the Angels' power-hungry bats. Given the amount of fly balls they hit, and given the environment in which they'll be hitting on Monday, I would expect some loud contact.
With that, I think there's a lot of value in this number, even though it's a big one, and I'd play this to 9.5 runs.by K.Ducey
Diamondbacks vs. White Sox MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Take the over. Urena’s numbers against the current Arizona roster are nasty. He owns a .238 batting average against, a .455 expected slug and a .351 xwOBA. On the other side, Davies’ expected numbers against Chicago’s current roster are even uglier. He owns a .335 expected batting average against, a .933 expected slug and a .519 xwOBA.
Diamondbacks vs. White Sox Prediction: OVER 9.5
Rangers at Angels MLB BETTING PREDICTION
The under is the play tonight in L.A. Sandoval has solid career numbers against Texas’ current roster, which is batting only .136 against the right-hander lifetime. Sandoval also has a 29.2 strikeout rate and an expected batting average against of .200. While Gray doesn’t have the same impressive numbers against the Angels’ current roster as Sandoval has versus Texas, they’re good nonetheless. The Angels are batting just .233 off Gray lifetime.
Cardinals vs. Brewers MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Take the over. Zack Thompson owns a .256 expected batting average, a .480 expected slug and a .356 xwOBA against the current Milwaukee roster. On the other side, Adrian Houser owns a .285 expected batting average, a .443 expected slug and a .341 xwOBA against the current St. Louis roster. Runs should not be at a premium today in Milwaukee.
Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction: OVER 8
Astros vs. Mariners MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Take the under. Javier owns a .187 expected batting average against, a .363 expected slugging percentage and a .292 xwOBA against the current Seattle roster. Against the current Houston roster, Kirby owns even better marks than Javier versus the Mariners. Kirby’s .195 expected batting average against, his .288 expected slugging percentage and his .243 xwOBA are outstanding. Runs will be at a premium tonight in Seattle.
Astros vs. Mariners Prediction: UNDER 8
Padres vs. Giants MLB Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games
The Padres are 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at homeTh
The Giants are 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego
Backing the Padres bit me last night, but I’m going back to the well tonight. Seth Lugo owns a .234 expected batting average against, a 3.57 expected slug and an xwOBA of .268 against the current Giants roster. The numbers for Kyle Harrison against the current San Diego roster are bleak. His expected batting average against of .297, his expected .676 slug and his xwOBA of .431 are rough.
Padres vs. Giants Prediction: San Diego Padres -125
Yankees vs. Blue Jays MLB Betting Trends
NY Yankees is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto’s last 5 games
I’m rolling the dice on the Yankees. King owns a .208 expected batting average against when facing the current Blue Jays roster. He also owns a .274 expected slug and xwOBA .252 against the current Toronto roster. On the other side, Gausman owns a .345 xwOBA against the current Yankees roster, with a .268 batting average against and a .461 expected slug.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction: New York Yankees +136
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