South Dakota State Jackrabbits +5.5: Was going to take day off and maybe just tail some of the real good cappers on here, but when this line climbed to +5.5 I had to pounce for a small 0.5 unit play. SDST always has a very good program and a perennial contender in the Summit, where they are rated 3rd in the pre-season coaches polls. The Rabbits are 7-4 overall and 1-0 at home, that being a 105-58 obliteration of Georgia St. This game is of course at a neutral but is for all intents a home game for the Rabbits, with Brookings a hop, skip and a jump to Sioux Falls. Wyoming, projected to be bottom-4 team in the Mountain West, has been very good so far. They are 0-2 on the road but did give Texas Tech all they could handle and put up a decent fight against a solid Sam Houston. They have been "lethal in Laramie' but if you look at their opponents, Austin Peay was probably their most challenging. I think this is a close game throughout, with SDST able to dictate the pace against a Cowboys team that likes to get out and run. Interesting to see Wyoming 93rd compared to SDST 175th in KenPom. I do think those numbers are quite misleading, which is often the case at this time of year.
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1-0 yesterday, 24-26-1, -0.25 units YTD ...
South Dakota State Jackrabbits +5.5: Was going to take day off and maybe just tail some of the real good cappers on here, but when this line climbed to +5.5 I had to pounce for a small 0.5 unit play. SDST always has a very good program and a perennial contender in the Summit, where they are rated 3rd in the pre-season coaches polls. The Rabbits are 7-4 overall and 1-0 at home, that being a 105-58 obliteration of Georgia St. This game is of course at a neutral but is for all intents a home game for the Rabbits, with Brookings a hop, skip and a jump to Sioux Falls. Wyoming, projected to be bottom-4 team in the Mountain West, has been very good so far. They are 0-2 on the road but did give Texas Tech all they could handle and put up a decent fight against a solid Sam Houston. They have been "lethal in Laramie' but if you look at their opponents, Austin Peay was probably their most challenging. I think this is a close game throughout, with SDST able to dictate the pace against a Cowboys team that likes to get out and run. Interesting to see Wyoming 93rd compared to SDST 175th in KenPom. I do think those numbers are quite misleading, which is often the case at this time of year.
NOTES: I regret not jumping North Alabama at +1.5. After an indifferent start to the season, this Lions team is starting to find it, travelling a long long way from home to beat a solid San Fran team in their last game 12 days ago. The Lions may be starting to live up to their expected No. 2 finish in the A-SUN behind Queens. As Shania sings, the SWAC "don't impress me much" and I think North Alabama is a better team than Alabama St, but I am a bit reticent to lay 3.5 on the road in a rivalry type game. But I still think it probably hits.
Another play I am mulling but still not recommending wholeheartedly is Gardner Webb, who have been awful this season. Some bad losses to pedestrian teams. However, in their only home game 9 days ago, they only lost by 4 to Georgia Southern who is quite comparable to Wofford. Wofford is nothing special and are coming off a miserable 21-point home loss to an average Elon team. Both these teams are projected to finish near the very bottom of their conferences, and neither conference is particularly good either. Wofford is probably the better team, but 12 points better on the road? I tend to think not, but again I haven't pulled the trigger.
Anyway, tread carefully today my friends, these are the kind of days that tend to be 'advantage Vegas" with so few options and degenerate cappers desperately looking for some action.
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NOTES: I regret not jumping North Alabama at +1.5. After an indifferent start to the season, this Lions team is starting to find it, travelling a long long way from home to beat a solid San Fran team in their last game 12 days ago. The Lions may be starting to live up to their expected No. 2 finish in the A-SUN behind Queens. As Shania sings, the SWAC "don't impress me much" and I think North Alabama is a better team than Alabama St, but I am a bit reticent to lay 3.5 on the road in a rivalry type game. But I still think it probably hits.
Another play I am mulling but still not recommending wholeheartedly is Gardner Webb, who have been awful this season. Some bad losses to pedestrian teams. However, in their only home game 9 days ago, they only lost by 4 to Georgia Southern who is quite comparable to Wofford. Wofford is nothing special and are coming off a miserable 21-point home loss to an average Elon team. Both these teams are projected to finish near the very bottom of their conferences, and neither conference is particularly good either. Wofford is probably the better team, but 12 points better on the road? I tend to think not, but again I haven't pulled the trigger.
Anyway, tread carefully today my friends, these are the kind of days that tend to be 'advantage Vegas" with so few options and degenerate cappers desperately looking for some action.
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